Market evolution: Clock and watch parts (CN 9112) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in clock and watch cases and parts thereof (customs heading 9112) over the period 2015–2025. This product category encompasses clock and watch cases (subheading 911220) and parts of clock and watch cases (subheading 911290), excluding those designed for wrist-watches and pocket-watches of headings 9101 and 9102. The analysis draws on Eurostat trade data and reveals a market that has undergone significant structural transformation: the EU shifted from a net exporter to a net importer, traditional trade corridors were reshuffled, and the unit value of traded goods rose markedly—suggesting a move toward higher-value, lower-volume trade flows.

1. A Decade of Declining Volumes with Rising Unit Values

1.1 EU exports contracted sharply while prices surged

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU exports of CN 9112 goods underwent a dramatic restructuring:

Export volumes fell by nearly four-fifths, yet the unit price more than doubled. This inverse relationship indicates that the EU's residual exports shifted toward more specialised, higher-value products—likely precision cases and artisanal components—while lower-value bulk exports were displaced or offshored.

1.2 Import volumes remained more resilient but values softened

EU imports displayed greater stability in volume terms but saw their unit prices decline:

The modest 9.5% decline in imported volumes, contrasted with the steep 78.1% drop in export volumes, underscores a fundamental asymmetry: the EU continued to source cases and parts from global suppliers while its own export capacity eroded. The falling import unit price suggests increasing penetration by cost-competitive suppliers, particularly from Asia.

1.3 The trade surplus nearly evaporated

The EU's trade balance in CN 9112 shifted from a healthy surplus of €2.18 million in 2015 to just €500,000 in 2025—a decline of 77.1%. Critically, the balance briefly turned negative (reaching a minimum of −€13,934), confirming that the EU experienced at least one year of net import reliance before partially recovering. This trajectory signals a loss of competitive advantage in a niche but strategically relevant segment of the horological supply chain.

2. Geographical Reconfiguration of Trade Partners

2.1 Switzerland's dominance in EU trade collapsed on both sides

Switzerland was historically the EU's most important partner for CN 9112. In 2015, it accounted for €3.39 million in exports (69% of total EU exports) and €1.24 million in imports (46% of total EU imports). By 2025:

This bilateral contraction reflects the broader restructuring of the Swiss watch industry's supply chain, with more component sourcing and assembly shifting to Asia and to other European locations outside the traditional Swiss–EU axis.

2.2 New export destinations emerged as traditional ones faded

The export landscape was reshaped by dramatic shifts:

The United Kingdom's emergence as the second-largest export destination (overtaking China and Hong Kong) is likely linked to Brexit, which created a new customs boundary requiring UK-based assemblers to import cases and parts from the EU under formal trade declarations—flows that previously may have been intra-EU or unrecorded. The near-total collapse of exports to China suggests that Chinese manufacturers have become self-sufficient in case production for the domestic market.

2.3 Asian suppliers consolidated their position in EU imports

On the import side, China maintained its position as the leading supplier (€797K → €857K, +7.5%), while South Korea surged from €1,587 to €117,204—a 7,285% increase—emerging as a significant source of parts. The volatility measures confirm that Chinese imports were relatively stable (coefficient of variation: 0.42), whereas Korean imports were more erratic (CV: 1.06), suggesting episodic large shipments rather than steady supply.

3. Structural Shifts in Market Concentration and EU Vulnerability

3.1 Export concentration fell while import concentration rose modestly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) reveals divergent trends:

The sharp decline in export concentration indicates that EU exports diversified away from their near-total reliance on Switzerland toward a broader set of destinations. Meanwhile, import concentration edged upward slightly, remaining in the "moderately concentrated" range (1,500–2,500 is typical; values above 2,500 signal higher concentration). This implies that import sourcing remains relatively concentrated among a few key suppliers—principally China and, increasingly, South Korea.

3.2 EU production grew, but trade autonomy eroded

EU domestic production of clock and watch cases and parts increased from €43.8 million to €60.0 million (+36.9%). However, this growth in output did not translate into trade autonomy:

The net import reliance swing from −18.7% to +31.1% is the single most consequential structural change in this market. In 2015, the EU was a net exporter by a comfortable margin; by 2025, it relies on non-EU sources for nearly a third of its consumption in this category. The collapse in export propensity (from 250% to 108%) confirms that the EU's outward orientation in this product category has fundamentally diminished.

3.3 Specialisation remained concentrated in a few Member States

In 2025, revealed comparative advantage was heavily concentrated:

Romania's strong specialisation (RSCA of 0.85) is noteworthy and may reflect its role as a manufacturing base for mid-range watch cases, benefiting from lower labour costs within the EU single market. Meanwhile, traditional watchmaking nations such as France, Germany, and Italy—while still major exporters—no longer dominate the specialisation rankings, suggesting their activity has shifted toward finished watches rather than cases and parts.

Conclusion

The EU market for clock and watch cases and parts (CN 9112) underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The most striking development was the reversal of the EU's trade position: from a net exporter with a €2.2 million surplus to a net importer relying on external sources for 31% of its consumption. This shift was driven by a 78% collapse in export volumes—far exceeding the 10% decline in import volumes—while domestic production grew by 37%.

Geographically, the traditional Switzerland-centred trade axis was dramatically weakened, with new corridors opening to the United Kingdom (likely a Brexit effect), the United States, and South Korea. China solidified its position as the dominant import supplier. Price dynamics diverged sharply between flows: export unit values rose 130%, indicating a retreat to higher-value niches, while import unit values fell 21%, suggesting increasing price competition from Asian suppliers.

The combination of rising import reliance, falling export propensity, and increasing concentration of specialisation in a small number of Member States raises questions about the EU's long-term strategic positioning in this segment of the horological supply chain. While the sector remains modest in absolute size (total trade flows of approximately €4.5 million in 2025), the observed trends mirror broader patterns of manufacturing offshoring and supply chain globalisation seen across European industry.