Market evolution: Automatic precious metal watches (CN 910121) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the European Union's trade in automatic wrist-watches with precious metal cases (Customs Code 910121) over the 2015–2025 period. The data reveals a market characterised by significant structural shifts, growing external dependency, and a pronounced premiumization trend within a volatile global trading environment. While the overall trade value has increased, this masks divergent dynamics in volume, pricing, and geographic concentration.

I. Growing Strategic Dependence on a Single Supplier

The EU's external trade balance for this high-value product category has deteriorated substantially, driven almost entirely by a surge in import value from Switzerland. This has led to a sharp increase in the bloc's net import reliance.

The Switzerland-centric trade deficit has widened considerably

The EU's trade deficit in value terms for CN 910121 has grown from approximately €491 million in 2015 to €784 million in 2025, a 59.6% increase (trade overview). This expansion of the deficit is overwhelmingly linked to Switzerland. Swiss imports into the EU rose from €1.17 billion to €1.53 billion, a 30.7% increase, and consistently represent over 95% of total EU imports by value (top partners).

Net import reliance has surged, confirming structural vulnerability

The EU's net import reliance, a key indicator of strategic dependency, has climbed dramatically from 58.0% in 2015 to 82.3% in 2025 (net import reliance). This means the bloc's domestic consumption is increasingly met by imports rather than domestic production or intra-EU trade. The concentration of imports (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index) remains very high at 9,715, confirming the dominant position of Switzerland (concentration).

II. A Market of Diminishing Volumes but Soaring Values

A defining feature of the 2015–2025 period is the decoupling of traded volumes from values, indicating a powerful shift toward higher-priced products. This is evident in both trade and production data.

Physical trade volumes have declined, but value has increased

Despite a 30.2% rise in import value, the quantity (by weight) of watches imported into the EU fell by 15.6% over the period (trade overview). Similarly, while EU export value grew by 9.7%, the tonnage exported fell by 21.7%. This points to a clear premiumization dynamic: the average value per tonne (a proxy for price) imported and exported has risen sharply, by 53.7% and 36.0% respectively.

Table 1: EU Trade Indicators for CN 910121 (2015 vs. 2025)

EU production is pivoting to higher value, lower volume output

EU production data reinforces this narrative. Between the first and last available years, the number of items produced fell by 33.3%, from 112,150 to 74,796 units. Conversely, the total production value in euros increased by 53.6%, from €123 million to €189 million (production volumes). This suggests EU manufacturers are focusing on fewer, more expensive timepieces, aligning with the observed trade pattern.

III. Diverging Fortunes Among Trading Partners and EU Members

While Switzerland's dominance is the overarching story, the decade saw significant reshuffling among other key partners and EU member states, reflecting post-Brexit adjustments and new commercial relationships.

Trade with the United Kingdom collapsed after Brexit

The most dramatic shift among non-Swiss partners was the collapse of trade with the United Kingdom. EU imports from the UK fell by 70.3% from €19.7 million to €5.8 million, while exports to the UK dropped by 65.7% (top partners). Price shocks detected in 2021 for both flows may be linked to the post-Brexit trade regime shock analysis.

Growth emerged in the UAE and Singapore, while France strengthened its lead

Contrasting the UK's decline, EU exports to the United Arab Emirates and Singapore grew by 325.3% and 320.2% respectively, indicating growing demand in Middle Eastern and Asian hubs (top partners). Within the EU, France solidified its position as the top importer (€491M to €606M), likely as a gateway for Swiss watches. Italy remains the leading EU exporter, though its value declined slightly, while Germany's export value grew by 24.4% (top reporters).

Conclusion

The EU market for automatic precious metal watches (CN 910121) over the past decade has become more valuable but also more vulnerable. The strategic dependence on Switzerland has intensified, as evidenced by a soaring net import reliance of 82%. This dependency exists within a market that is decisively premiumizing; both EU trade and production show declining physical volumes but surging values. Finally, the geographic landscape of trade has been reshaped, with Brexit severing a key link to the UK while new export channels to the Gulf and Asia have opened. The primary strategic challenge for the bloc is managing this concentrated dependency while its own industrial base shifts toward the ultra-high-end segment.