Market evolution: Precious metal wristwatches (CN 910129) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of the European Union's trade in hand-wound precious metal wristwatches (Customs code 910129) over the decade from 2015 to 2025. Despite a period marked by significant global disruptions, the market has shown a clear and decisive structural shift: while the physical volume of trade has contracted substantially, the total value has increased, indicating a move towards higher-value, more exclusive timepieces. This transformation has been accompanied by a geographical reconfiguration of trade, a growing concentration of supply, and an increased strategic vulnerability for the EU bloc.

For reference, the product scope covers: "Wrist-watches of precious metal or of metal clad with precious metal, whether or not incorporating a stop-watch facility, with hand winding only (excl. with backs made of steel)". (Overview on the Trade Dashboard)

1. The Era of Premiumization: Soaring Values Amidst Plummeting Volumes

The most striking trend over the past decade is the profound decoupling of trade value from physical volume. The EU has traded fewer units and fewer tonnes of these watches, but the total value of this trade has reached record highs.

A. The trade balance has remained in deficit, but its composition has fundamentally changed.

The EU consistently imports more than it exports in value terms, with a trade deficit of €124.2 million in 2025. However, the nature of this deficit has evolved. While the deficit's value has remained relatively stable, it is now achieved with far less physical product. This points to a market where the average price per unit has escalated dramatically.

EU Trade Balance (Value in EUR):

Source: Trade overview

B. Unit prices have more than doubled, confirming a decisive shift towards luxury.

The decline in physical quantities (tonnes and pieces) has been more than offset by surging prices. The average import price per piece (EUR/p/st) rose by 337% from €2,533 in 2015 to €11,072 in 2025. Similarly, the export price per piece increased by 119% to €6,418. This indicates a market that is increasingly focused on high-complication, artisanal, and investment-grade pieces.

Evolution of Unit Prices (EUR per piece):

Source: Trade overview

C. Production data reinforces the premiumization narrative.

While official EU production volumes (in pieces) decreased by 33% from 112,150 to 74,796 units between the first and last years, the production value increased by 54% from €122.7 million to €188.5 million. This shows that EU manufacturers are focusing their efforts on higher-margin products within this category.

Source: Production volumes

2. Geographical Reconfiguration: The Switzerland Factor and Rising Import Concentration

The map of trade partners has undergone significant changes, most notably with Switzerland's dominance solidifying, while the role of the United Kingdom has collapsed. This has led to a more concentrated import landscape.

A. Switzerland has become the EU's indispensable supplier.

Switzerland's share of EU imports in this category is overwhelming. In 2025, it supplied €479.3 million of the €493.2 million total, accounting for 97% of all imports by value. This represents a 31% increase in value from 2015. The concentration of imports from a single partner has significantly increased the EU's net import reliance from 58% to 82%.

B. The United Kingdom's role has diminished dramatically.

In stark contrast, the United Kingdom, once the second-largest supplier, saw its exports to the EU collapse by 96%, from €22.5 million to just €872,865. A similar, though less extreme, decline occurred in UK imports of these watches from the EU (-84%). This reconfiguration likely reflects post-Brexit regulatory and tariff changes.

Evolution of Top Trade Partners (Value in EUR, 2015 vs. 2025):

Source: Partners analysis

C. Import concentration has increased, reflecting dependence on fewer sources.

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of market concentration, for EU imports by value rose from 8,846 to 9,766 between 2015 and 2025. An HHI above 2,500 indicates a highly concentrated market; this increase underscores the EU's growing dependence on Switzerland. Conversely, the HHI for exports fell slightly, indicating a modest diversification of EU export destinations.

3. Emerging Vulnerabilities: Price Shocks and Strategic Dependencies

The structural shifts have created new vulnerabilities for the EU market, characterized by susceptibility to supply-chain shocks from key partners and a growing import reliance that affects strategic autonomy.

A. The year 2020 was marked by severe price volatility.

The data reveals significant price shocks centered around 2020. The most pronounced was in EU exports to China, where the price per unit (EUR/p/st) experienced an abnormal shift of +68.4 and a staggering percentage increase of 2,089% in that year. Similar, though less extreme, price shocks affected imports from China and exports to South Korea. These events likely reflect pandemic-driven disruptions, compositional changes in trade (e.g., a shift to much rarer pieces), or logistical bottlenecks.

B. The EU exhibits high export propensity but growing import reliance.

The EU's export propensity—the ratio of exports to domestic production—increased by 108%, reaching 736% in 2025. This means the EU exported over seven times the number of pieces it produced domestically. While demonstrating a strong competitive niche, this also indicates a high degree of integration into global value chains. Combined with the rising net import reliance (now at 82.3%), it highlights a strategic dependency on external suppliers, primarily Switzerland, to meet domestic demand.

C. Volatility varies greatly by partner, creating uneven risk.

Analysis of the coefficient of variation (CV) in trade value reveals that some trade flows are highly volatile. For instance, exports to the United States (CV: 1.84) and Algeria (CV: 2.60) show high year-to-year instability. Imports from Türkiye (CV: 1.23) and the Republic of Korea (CV: 2.08) are also volatile. In contrast, the crucial import flow from Switzerland is relatively stable (CV: 0.49), but its sheer dominance means any disruption there would have systemic consequences.

Conclusion

The EU market for hand-wound precious metal wristwatches between 2015 and 2025 underwent a profound transformation. It evolved into a more premium, value-driven segment, with prices per unit rising sharply even as physical volumes declined. Geographically, the market became hyper-concentrated on Swiss suppliers, while the UK's role diminished post-Brexit. This structural shift has increased the EU's strategic vulnerability, as evidenced by growing import reliance and susceptibility to pronounced price shocks in key bilateral flows. The data paints a picture of a niche but valuable market where the EU is a major trader and re-exporter, yet one whose supply chains are highly dependent on a single, albeit strong, external partner.