Market evolution: Precious metal watches (CN 910111) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in custom code 910111 — wrist-watches of precious metal or of metal clad with precious metal, electrically operated, with mechanical display only (excluding steel backs) — over the period 2015 to 2025. The analysis draws on EU trade data covering imports, exports, production, concentration, and vulnerability indicators. Over this decade, the EU's trade profile in this luxury segment underwent significant structural change: while trade values declined, the quantity of items traded shifted in divergent directions, the trade balance moved toward equilibrium, and the EU's reliance on external supply deepened markedly.

1. Declining trade values masked by a dramatic expansion in unit volumes

Total import and export values both contracted substantially over the period

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's imports of CN 910111 watches fell from €523.7 million to €310.6 million (−40.7%), while exports declined from €455.2 million to €305.1 million (−33.0%). The EU's trade deficit in this product narrowed dramatically from €68.6 million in 2015 to just €5.5 million in 2025 — an improvement of 92.0%.

Behind the value decline, the number of items traded surged — especially in exports

The most striking dynamic of the decade is the divergence between falling values and rising unit volumes. EU export quantities in items nearly doubled, growing from 134,034 pieces to 256,344 pieces (+91.3%). On the import side, supplementary unit counts more than doubled from 569,643 to 1,289,429 pieces (+126.4%), even as the mass in tonnes fell by 55.8%.

The collapse in unit values points to a fundamental shift in the product mix

The average export price per piece fell from €3,396 to €1,190 (−65.0%), while the import price per piece dropped even more sharply from €919 to €241 (−73.8%). This suggests that the trade flows shifted toward lower-price-point watches within the CN 910111 category — potentially reflecting the entry of more affordable precious-metal-cased quartz watches with mechanical displays, or a structural shift in which lighter, less expensive models came to dominate volumes. The fact that imports in tonnes declined while the piece count surged implies that the average weight per imported watch fell significantly.

2. Switzerland remained the dominant trade partner, but geographic diversification and disruption were evident

Switzerland continued to dominate EU imports, though at a reduced scale

The EU's imports from Switzerland fell from €497.5 million to €298.8 million (−39.9%). Despite this decline, Switzerland still accounted for approximately 96% of total EU import value in 2025, underscoring the Swiss watch industry's overwhelming dominance in this segment. The import concentration index (HHI) remained near 9,300 throughout the period — an extremely high level confirming near-total reliance on a single source.

The United Kingdom's trade collapsed following Brexit

The most dramatic partner-level shift involved the United Kingdom. EU imports from the UK fell from €14.0 million to €1.3 million (−90.6%), and EU exports to the UK plunged from €76.2 million to €9.2 million (−88.0%). At their peak, UK-bound exports reached €242.8 million, making the UK the EU's single largest export destination. The post-2019 collapse is consistent with the UK's departure from the EU customs union and the imposition of trade barriers.

New export markets partially offset the loss of the UK

The decline in UK-bound exports was partly compensated by growth in other destinations. EU exports to the United Arab Emirates grew from €12.0 million to €29.5 million (+145.0%), reflecting the UAE's growing role as a luxury goods hub. Exports to Hong Kong remained relatively resilient at €53.6 million (−22.4% from €69.1 million), while the US remained a steady market despite a moderate decline to €21.8 million.

Export-side volatility was elevated, with a major price shock in 2020

The volatility analysis reveals high coefficients of variation across many partners — notably Thailand (CV 2.25), Nigeria (CV 2.23), and Hong Kong (CV 1.31) on the export side. The most significant shock event was a massive export price spike to Hong Kong in 2020, with an abnormality score of 2,893 and a +347.8% price shift, representing 16.2% of total export value. This likely reflects the COVID-19 pandemic's disruption of shipping patterns and inventory strategies, as well as possible re-export arbitrage through Hong Kong during a period of logistics upheaval.

3. France anchored EU production, while member-state trade roles diverged sharply

France dominated both import and export flows at the member-state level

Among EU member states, France was the largest importer (€158.0 million in 2025, down from €225.7 million) and the largest exporter (€95.9 million, down from €247.3 million). France's position reflects its concentration of luxury watchmaking and its role as a re-export hub for Swiss-made timepieces. In 2025, France held the highest specialisation index among EU members (RSCA of 0.6574, RCA of 4.84), and accounted for 37.8% of EU production value in this product.

Ireland, Portugal, and the Netherlands emerged as fast-growing trading hubs

Several member states exhibited extraordinary growth rates that suggest evolving roles in the value chain:

Ireland's surge — from a marginal player to the EU's fourth-largest exporter at €28.8 million — is striking. This may reflect the growing presence of multinational watch companies using Ireland as a distribution or corporate hub, or reclassification effects. Portugal's rise to €42.7 million in exports positions it as the EU's second-largest exporter by value, likely reflecting investment in assembly or finishing operations.

EU production volumes declined, but value per unit nearly tripled

According to production data, EU production of CN 910111 watches in items fell from 112,150 to 74,796 (−33.3%), while production value rose from €122.7 million to €188.5 million (+53.6%). The implied average production value per piece therefore increased from approximately €1,094 to €2,520 — a 130% rise — indicating a clear pivot toward higher-value, more complex, or more elaborately finished watches. This is consistent with the broader industry trend of Swiss and European watchmakers focusing on the premium end of the market while lower-price segments are increasingly served by imports.

Net import reliance deepened substantially

The EU's net import reliance rose from 58.0% to 82.3% over the period. This increase, even as trade values declined, reflects the faster contraction of exports relative to imports in value terms during the earlier years and the persistent dominance of Swiss imports. At the same time, export propensity more than doubled from 353% to 736%, indicating that while the EU's absolute export position weakened, production became more export-oriented relative to domestic output. The combination of rising import reliance and rising export propensity suggests deepening integration into global value chains, with the EU increasingly serving as a high-value production platform rather than a self-sufficient market.

Conclusion

The EU trade in precious-metal mechanical-display watches (CN 910111) over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural transformation beneath a surface of declining headline values. Trade volumes in pieces expanded dramatically — exports nearly doubled, imports more than doubled — but unit values collapsed, indicating a shift toward lighter, lower-price watches within this customs category. Switzerland maintained its near-monopoly on EU imports, while the UK's role imploded after Brexit, and new hubs such as the UAE, Ireland, and Portugal gained prominence. EU production pivoted toward fewer but more valuable watches, and net import reliance rose to over 82%. The sector remains highly concentrated and vulnerable to supply-side disruptions, as the 2020 Hong Kong price shock illustrated. Going forward, the key question is whether the volume growth and declining unit values represent a permanent structural broadening of this product segment — or a temporary effect that will reverse as the luxury market evolves.