Market evolution: Aircraft and spacecraft (CN 88) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of extra-EU trade for products under Combined Nomenclature (CN) code 88, "Aircraft, spacecraft, and parts thereof," between 2015 and 2025. The EU is a global leader in aerospace manufacturing and trade. The period under review encompasses significant shifts in global demand, supply chain dynamics, and geopolitical events. The analysis focuses on trade flows, geographic partners, market structure, and product segments to identify key trends and explain the main observable dynamics.

The EU's Strengthening Trade Surplus Driven by Volume Growth and High-Value Production

The EU has maintained a substantial trade surplus in aircraft and spacecraft throughout the period. While both exports and imports grew, the underlying drivers differed significantly, resulting in a structural shift in trade composition.

Export growth fuelled by a surge in volume

EU exports of CN 88 products increased from €68.0 billion in 2015 to €75.7 billion in 2025, an 11.3% rise in value. However, this headline figure masks a much more dramatic increase in physical volume, which grew by 50.3% over the same period. This divergence is explained by a 28.7% decline in the average export price (EUR per tonne). This indicates that EU exporters successfully increased market share and sales volume, albeit at lower average unit values.

Import values rise sharply due to escalating unit prices

In contrast, the value of EU imports grew more strongly, by 48.7% from €30.3 billion to €45.1 billion. Yet, the quantity imported fell by 20.9%. This combination points to a dramatic 84.2% increase in average import prices. This suggests the EU is increasingly importing higher-value, more complex aerospace components or finished aircraft from global partners, or that input costs have risen significantly.

A robust and evolving trade balance

The overall EU trade balance for CN 88 remained positive throughout the decade, peaking at €39.4 billion in 2019 before settling at €30.7 billion in 2025. The decrease from the peak reflects the faster growth of import values. The sustained surplus underscores the EU's strong competitive position, largely anchored in its export-driven production.

Table 1: Key EU Trade Indicators for CN 88 (2015 vs. 2025)

Geographic Re-alignment and Diversification of Trade Partners

The landscape of EU aerospace trade partners underwent notable changes between 2015 and 2025, characterized by growing links with China and a significant diversification of export destinations.

The United States remains the pivotal bilateral partner

The United States is the EU's top partner for both exports and imports, reflecting deep transatlantic supply chain integration. However, trends diverged: exports to the US slightly decreased (-5.2% to €13.9 billion), while imports surged by 35.4% to €24.8 billion. This shift contributed to the overall rise in import values and a narrowing bilateral balance.

China emerges as a critical and fast-growing import source

The most dramatic change is seen in trade with China. While EU exports to China remained relatively stable (a slight -4.3% decline to €8.5 billion), imports from China skyrocketed by 590% to €2.6 billion. This signals China's rapid ascent as a supplier, likely in areas such as components, subassemblies, or unmanned aircraft systems. This rapid growth makes China a key factor in the evolving EU import profile.

Diversification of export markets and growing importance of "unspecified" trade

The EU's export base has broadened. Exports to the UK grew by 27.6%, and exports to India grew by 323% to €4.7 billion. Furthermore, a large and growing category of "Countries and territories not specified" saw its share of exports explode to €4.6 billion by 2025. This category, which includes military or strategically sensitive trade, is now the third-largest export destination, indicating significant undisclosed strategic deliveries.

Increased geographic diversification reduces concentration risk

Concentration indices confirm this diversification. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import partners fell from 4,249 to 3,683, and for export partners from 931 to 819, indicating a less concentrated and more resilient trade network.

The Rising Prominence of Parts and Unmanned Systems in the Product Mix

A granular analysis at the sub-heading level reveals a fundamental shift in the composition of EU aerospace trade, with a clear move towards parts and a new category: unmanned aircraft.

Aircraft parts (CN 8807) have become the largest import category

While powered aircraft (CN 8802) remain the single largest product traded, their share is changing. For imports, the most significant development is the rise of parts of aircraft and spacecraft (CN 8807). Data for this category begins in 2018, and by 2025, it accounted for €15.0 billion in imports (33% of total CN 88 imports). This reflects a mature supply chain model where final assembly in the EU relies heavily on globally sourced components.

Unmanned aircraft (CN 8806) exhibit explosive growth in exports

The most dynamic segment is unmanned aircraft (CN 8806). EU exports of this category, first recorded in 2022, surged to €1.4 billion and 52,900 tonnes in 2025. The massive volume (over 2 million units by supplementary count) and relatively low average price per unit point to large-scale exports of small, likely commercial or industrial, drone systems.

Production value growth outpaces quantity, indicating a shift up the value chain

EU production data corroborates a move towards higher-value activities. While production quantity (in kg) grew by 43.4% between 2015 and 2025, production value skyrocketed by 1,960%, from €3.0 billion to €61.5 billion. This extraordinary increase in output value relative to mass strongly suggests that EU industrial output is concentrating on more technologically complex and valuable aerospace products, such as advanced aircraft, engines, and high-value parts.

Table 2: Evolution of Key CN 88 Product Segments (Value in € bn)

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade in aircraft and spacecraft demonstrated remarkable resilience and underwent significant structural transformation. The region maintained a large trade surplus, but its foundations shifted: export growth became increasingly volume-driven, while the import bill was pushed up by rising unit prices and a rapidly growing intake of parts and components from partners like China and the United States.

Geographically, trade became more diversified, with strong growth in exports to new markets and a notable surge in strategic, unspecified deliveries. The product mix evolved decisively towards integrated supply chain models, evidenced by the dominance of aircraft parts in imports and the emergence of unmanned systems as a major new export line. Underpinning these trade shifts is a domestic production base that has massively increased its value output, confirming the EU's strategic positioning in higher-value segments of the global aerospace industry. This period marks a transition towards a more diversified, globally integrated, and value-focused EU aerospace trade ecosystem.