Market evolution: Motor vehicles and parts (CN 87) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's extra-EU trade in goods classified under Customs Code 87, which encompasses motor vehicles, tractors, motorcycles, bicycles, trailers, and their parts and accessories, for the period from 2015 to 2025. Drawing on annual trade data, the analysis identifies and interprets the major dynamics shaping the EU's external trade in this strategically vital sector. The period was marked by significant growth in the value of both exports and imports, though import growth substantially outpaced exports, leading to a noticeable erosion of the EU's trade surplus. Key transformations include a pronounced shift in import sourcing, rising unit values, and increasing production specialisation within the Union. These trends reflect a combination of global supply chain reconfigurations, technological shifts towards higher-value vehicles, and geopolitical realignments.

1. Divergent Trajectories: Export Stagnation vs. Import Surge

The period 2015–2025 was characterized by a stark divergence in the performance of EU exports and imports of motor vehicles and parts. While the total value of exports grew modestly, import values surged dramatically, fundamentally altering the EU's trade position in this sector.

1.1. A Widening Trade Deficit in Value Terms

The EU's trade balance for CN 87 goods deteriorated significantly between 2015 and 2025. The surplus, which stood at €155.2 billion in 2015, fell to €112.6 billion by 2025, a contraction of -27.5%. This was not due to a collapse in exports but rather to the much faster pace of import growth. More on overall trade dynamics.

1.2. The Quantity-Value Paradox: EU Exports

A deeper look at exports reveals a critical paradox: the value of exports increased while the physical quantity (in net tonnage) declined. Between 2015 and 2025, the volume of exports fell by -13.5%, from 21.4 million tonnes to 18.5 million tonnes. However, the value grew by 6.9%. This indicates a significant increase in the average unit value (price per tonne) of EU exports, which rose by 23.6% over the period. This suggests a strategic shift within the EU's automotive industry towards exporting higher-value, premium, or more technologically advanced vehicles and components. Explore the price evolution.

1.3. Robust Import Growth in Both Volume and Value

In contrast, EU imports grew robustly in both quantity and value. Import volume increased by 38.1% (from 9.6 million tonnes to 13.2 million tonnes), while their value surged by 72.4% (from €81.6 billion to €140.7 billion). The import price per tonne also climbed by 24.8%, mirroring the trend seen in exports and pointing to global inflationary pressures and a move towards more expensive vehicle models in the import basket.

2. Geographic Reconfiguration: The Rise of New Trade Partners

The decade saw a marked reorientation of EU trade flows, with significant shifts in the relative importance of partner countries for both imports and exports.

2.1. New Engines of Import Growth: China and Turkey

The most dramatic shift occurred in the EU's import sources. China underwent a transformational rise, with the value of EU imports from China increasing by an extraordinary 464.6%, from €5.3 billion in 2015 to €30.0 billion in 2025, making it the leading source of imports by value. Turkey also saw very strong growth of 125.6%, reaching €24.5 billion. This reflects both the increasing integration of Turkish manufacturing into European supply chains and China's dominant role in the global electric vehicle (EV) and battery ecosystem. See the top import partners.

2.2. The Post-Brexit Impact on UK Trade and Geopolitical Realignments in Exports

The United Kingdom remained the EU's top export market but saw its relative position weaken. The value of EU exports to the UK decreased by -8.1% over the period, falling to €55.7 billion in 2025. The most dramatic geopolitical impact was the near-total collapse of exports to Russia, which plummeted by -97.6% following sanctions. Conversely, exports to Ukraine grew by 365.8%, and exports to Turkey surged by 105.2%, highlighting a redirection of trade flows. The US remained a major destination but with a slight value decline of -5.7%. Examine export partners.

2.3. Increased Specialisation and Concentration within the EU

Among EU member states, the automotive sector became more geographically specialised. Countries like Slovakia (RCA 2.47), Czechia (1.77), and Slovenia (1.75) showed very high revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in CN 87 exports in 2025, indicating they are major production hubs. This specialisation grew over time. Meanwhile, the concentration of exports among member states decreased (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for exports fell from 1228 to 1012), suggesting a broader distribution of export activities, even as specialisation deepened. Germany remained the dominant exporter, but its share slightly declined. View specialisation rankings.

3. Structural Shifts in Product Mix, Production, and Prices

Beyond trade flows, the period witnessed significant structural changes within the sector, including shifts in the product mix, strong growth in domestic production value, and broad-based price increases.

3.1. Dominance of Finished Vehicles and Parts in the Trade Basket

The trade data is heavily dominated by a few key product lines. For both imports and exports, Passenger vehicles (8703) and Parts and accessories (8708) are the two largest categories, consistently accounting for the bulk of the value.

In 2025, the top 3 export categories by value were:

1. Passenger vehicles (8703): €156.7 billion
2. Parts and accessories (8708): €50.1 billion
3. Goods vehicles (8704): €16.8 billion

The top 3 import categories were:

1. Passenger vehicles (8703): €75.1 billion
2. Parts and accessories (8708): €30.2 billion
3. Goods vehicles (8704): €8.9 billion

This underscores that the core of the EU's automotive trade lies in the exchange of finished cars and the components that feed integrated cross-border supply chains. Compare product segments.

3.2. Rising Production Values Despite Flat Output

EU domestic production of motor vehicles and parts grew strongly in value terms, rising by 67.2% from €401.2 billion in 2015 to €671.0 billion in 2025. However, production quantity in tonnes grew at a much slower 35.6%. This implies a substantial increase in the unit value of EU-produced goods, aligning with the export price trend and indicating a move towards more advanced, expensive vehicles and systems, including EVs and associated technologies like batteries and electronics. Track production volumes.

3.3. Broad-Based Price Increases Across All Segments

Price increases (EUR per tonne) were a universal feature across the main traded segments between 2015 and 2025. This reflects a combination of inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions (particularly acute in 2020-2022), and a product mix shift towards higher-end models.

Price Evolution (EUR per tonne) of Key Export Segments:

The steepest price rise in exports was seen in Motorcycle parts (8714) and Motorcycles (8711), suggesting strong demand in these niche segments. On the import side, the price for Passenger cars (8703) also rose sharply, from €10,776 to €12,981 per tonne (+20.5%).

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in motor vehicles and parts underwent a profound transformation. The most defining trend is the acceleration of imports, particularly from China and Turkey, which has significantly narrowed the EU's historically large trade surplus. This is coupled with a qualitative upgrading of both exports and domestic production, as evidenced by rising unit values despite flat or declining physical volumes, signaling a shift towards more valuable, technologically complex products.

Geopolitically, the period was marked by major realignments: the consolidation of China as the paramount import source, the disruption of East-West trade flows due to the war in Ukraine, and the complex post-Brexit rebalancing with the United Kingdom. Within the EU, the automotive sector became more geographically specialised, with core Central European economies reinforcing their roles as production powerhouses.

Looking ahead, the EU automotive trade faces the dual challenges of managing its deepening import dependence—especially for components critical to the electric transition—and leveraging its shift towards higher-value production to maintain competitiveness. The data from 2015 to 2025 illustrates a sector in dynamic and often disruptive evolution, navigating the twin forces of globalisation and technological revolution.