Market evolution: Trucks (CN 8704) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the extra‑EU trade of passenger and goods vehicles under Combined Nomenclature code 8704 – motor vehicles for the transport of goods, including chassis with engine and cab, a heading that bundles diesel, petrol, electric and hybrid light‑, medium‑ and heavy‑duty trucks as well as off‑highway dumpers. The analysis covers annual flows from 2015 to 2025, using data from the EU Trade Dashboard for trade with non‑EU partners. Over the decade the sector was shaped by significant price inflation, a reconfiguration of key trading partners following geopolitical shocks, and the rapid appearance of battery‑electric commercial vehicles. All figures cited are drawn exclusively from the dashboard.

Price‑led value growth hides divergent volume dynamics between EU exports and imports

Export value growth was largely price‑driven, as shipped volumes decreased by 2.0 %

Between 2015 and 2025, the total value of EU truck exports to non‑EU countries climbed from EUR 13.6 billion to EUR 16.7 billion, a rise of 22.6 %. However, the number of units shipped slipped from 2.13 million to 2.09 million, revealing that the entire value expansion came from higher unit prices. The average export price advanced from EUR 6 396 to EUR 8 000 per vehicle (+25.1 %), with a pronounced peak in 2023 (EUR 8 688) before softening slightly in 2024‑2025 (Trade overview).

Imports recorded a far stronger value surge (+74.9 %), driven by both volume and even steeper price increases

Import values expanded from EUR 5.07 billion to EUR 8.86 billion (+74.9 %). Unlike exports, import growth combined a solid volume gain (+20.0 %, from 727 500 to 873 300 units) with a sharp jump in the average import price (+45.7 %, from EUR 6 963 to EUR 10 145). The import unit price rose uninterruptedly, ending the period 46 % above the 2015 level. This widening price gap between imports and exports contributed to the trade balance evolution.

The trade surplus narrowed as import values nearly doubled relative to export growth

The EU’s truck trade surplus shrank from EUR 8.58 billion in 2015 to EUR 7.87 billion in 2025 (–8.3 %). After hitting a low of EUR 6.47 billion in 2020, the surplus temporarily rebounded to EUR 10.15 billion in 2023, driven by record export prices, but returned to a declining path in 2024‑2025 as import values remained elevated (Trade overview). The external deficit pressure was thus tempered by favourable export pricing, but the structural rise in imports steadily eroded the surplus.

Geopolitics and partner shifts redefine the EU truck trade landscape

Türkiye solidified its role as the leading extra‑EU supplier, while South Africa and Norway gained significant import share

Türkiye remained the dominant source of EU truck imports throughout the period, its deliveries growing from EUR 2.84 billion to EUR 5.04 billion (+77.8 %). South Africa posted the strongest relative gain (+222.1 %), with imports rising from EUR 397 million to EUR 1.28 billion, overtaking the United Kingdom. Norway followed with a 162 % increase. In contrast, Moroccan shipments collapsed from EUR 150 million to barely EUR 7.7 million by 2025, while Thailand contracted slightly (Top partners).

EU exports pivoted sharply away from Russia, with Ukrainian and Turkish markets absorbing redirected flows

Exports to Russia, a significant destination before 2022, essentially ceased. The supply‑shock detection reveals a collapse from 62 200 units in 2021 to a mere 1.8 units in 2025, while the unit price surged as deliveries were restricted to spare parts or exceptional shipments (Supply shocks). Ukrainian imports of EU trucks soared by 507.5 % (from EUR 109 million to EUR 662 million), reflecting reconstruction demand. Exports to Türkiye more than doubled (+114.6 %), reaching EUR 2.34 billion, while flows to Norway rose steadily (+63.0 %). The United Kingdom remained the top export market, albeit with a modest 2.5 % increase over the decade.

Export market diversification increased, even as import supply became slightly more concentrated

The Herfindahl‑Hirschman Index for exports fell from 1 334 to 1 157 (–13.3 %), indicating that the EU sells trucks to a broader set of partners than in 2015. On the import side, the HHI edged up from 3 493 to 3 657 (+4.7 %), reflecting a slight tightening of supplier concentration, largely because of Türkiye’s growing share (Concentration). The lower variability of imports from Türkiye (coefficient of variation 0.15) compared with more volatile origins such as China (CV 0.92) and India (CV 1.53) reinforced the market’s reliance on a stable near‑by supplier.

The breakthrough of electric trucks transforms the product mix and pushes up unit values

Imports of fully electric trucks (870460) skyrocketed from 21 400 units in 2022 to almost 90 000 in 2025

Until 2021, all‑electric trucks were almost absent from extra‑EU imports. The dashboard first records a meaningful volume in 2022 (21 433 units, valued at EUR 311 million). By 2025, imports reached 89 570 units worth EUR 1.22 billion. Despite this rapid expansion, the average import price of electric trucks actually declined from EUR 14 531 to EUR 13 676, suggesting a shift toward smaller or more cost‑competitive models (Product breakdown).

EU exports of electric trucks also expanded rapidly, reaching over 80 000 units in 2025

Exports of electric trucks (code 870460) followed a parallel path, rising from 41 335 units in 2022 (EUR 564 million) to 80 552 units in 2025 (EUR 1.38 billion). In contrast to imports, the export unit price rose from EUR 13 646 to EUR 17 128, pointing to a greater share of larger or more highly specified vehicles in outgoing shipments. Electric trucks thus became a EUR 1.4 billion export segment, contributing to the overall value growth of EU truck shipments.