Market evolution: Trucks (CN 8704) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in goods classified under Combined Nomenclature heading 8704 — Motor vehicles for the transport of goods, including chassis with engine and cab — over the period 2015–2025. The category encompasses diesel and petrol trucks, dumpers, hybrid goods vehicles, and, increasingly, battery-electric trucks. Over the decade, the EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter of commercial vehicles while simultaneously witnessing a structural shift in the product mix, the geography of trade partners, and the role of electrification. The general overview provides full context on the scope of the analysis.

1. A Resilient Trade Surplus Squeezed by Rapidly Growing Imports

The EU consistently exported more trucks to non-EU countries than it imported throughout the period, maintaining a structural trade surplus. However, the gap narrowed meaningfully as import growth far outpaced export growth.

1.1. Exports grew in value but stagnated in weight

EU truck exports rose from €13.6 billion in 2015 to €16.8 billion in 2025, a cumulative increase of 23.0%. Yet the corresponding mass of vehicles shipped barely moved, declining marginally from 2.13 million tonnes to 2.09 million tonnes (−1.9%). The unit value per tonne thus climbed from €6,396 to €8,020 (+25.4%), indicating that the EU's export basket shifted toward higher-value-per-weight goods over the decade.

1.2. Import growth was far more vigorous

Imports surged from €5.1 billion to €8.9 billion (+74.9%), with tonnage rising from 727,000 t to 873,000 t (+20.0%). The import price per tonne accelerated even faster, climbing from €6,963 to €10,146 (+45.7%). This implies that not only did the EU buy more trucks from abroad, but the average imported vehicle became considerably more expensive per unit of mass.

1.3. The trade surplus shrank but remained substantial

The trade balance thus fell from €8.6 billion to €7.9 billion. While the EU retained a comfortable surplus, the asymmetry in growth rates — imports up 75% versus exports up 23% — signals a gradual erosion. A key driver appears to be the massive expansion of EU domestic production value, which grew from approximately €0.7 billion to €43.1 billion, suggesting that much of the additional import volume is being absorbed by a booming internal market rather than displacing EU-made trucks.

1.4. More vehicles, but lighter on average — a divergence between mass and count

One of the most striking features is the divergence between the number of exported vehicles and their aggregate weight. The supplementary unit count of exported trucks rose from 677,386 to 1,169,919 units (+72.7%), while tonnage fell slightly. This means the average exported vehicle became significantly lighter. Correspondingly, the average export price per vehicle fell from €20,147 to €14,349 (−28.8%), even as the price per tonne rose. This pattern is consistent with a growing share of lighter commercial vehicles — particularly vans under 5 tonnes — in the EU's export mix.

On the import side, the supplementary count grew more moderately, from 373,932 to 517,307 units (+38.3%), but the price per vehicle climbed from €13,547 to €17,128 (+26.4%). This indicates that imported vehicles are becoming heavier and/or more expensive on a per-unit basis — potentially reflecting growing imports of larger trucks and higher-spec models.

2. The Electric Truck Segment Breaks Through

The most dramatic product-level development of the decade was the emergence of battery-electric trucks (CN 870460) as a distinct and rapidly growing trade category. While the data for this subheading only begins in 2022, its trajectory is unmistakable.

2.1. From zero to a billion-euro import category in three years

Electric-only trucks were not separately recorded in EU trade statistics before 2022. By 2025, EU imports of electric trucks reached 89,570 tonnes valued at €1.22 billion, up from 21,433 t and €311 million in their first recorded year. The number of imported electric vehicles surged from 36,883 to 91,572 units.

2.2. EU electric truck exports are also expanding fast

The EU is not only importing electric trucks — it is also exporting them in growing volumes. Export volumes of CN 870460 rose from 41,335 t (€564 million) in 2022 to 80,552 t (€1.38 billion) in 2025, with the unit count climbing from 22,706 to 35,139 vehicles. The EU thus runs a trade surplus in electric trucks, with exports exceeding imports in both value and tonnage by 2025.

2.3. Electric trucks command premium pricing

Electric trucks exported by the EU carry a substantial premium over the category average: the 2025 price per vehicle was €39,264 for electric versus €14,349 for all trucks. This premium pricing reflects both the higher manufacturing cost of battery-electric drivetrains and the positioning of early electric trucks in urban delivery and premium fleet segments.

2.4. Conventional segments remain dominant but show divergent trends

Diesel trucks (CN 870421, ≤5 t gross weight) still account for the lion's share of both imports and exports. However, the spark-ignition (petrol) segment under 5 tonnes (CN 870431) is in sharp decline: its import tonnage fell from 23,742 t to 7,234 t, and its import value collapsed from €169 million to €78 million. The retreat of petrol-powered goods vehicles is consistent with fleet operators shifting to diesel and, increasingly, electric alternatives.

3. Geographical Shifts: Turkey's Dual Rise, Ukraine's Emergence, and Diverging Concentration

The geography of EU truck trade underwent significant restructuring between 2015 and 2025, driven by geopolitical events, supply-chain reconfiguration, and the evolving competitiveness of partner countries.

3.1. Turkey became the EU's dominant truck import source and a major export market

No country's role in EU truck trade changed more dramatically than Turkey's. Turkish truck exports to the EU surged from €2.8 billion to €5.0 billion (+77.8%), cementing Turkey as the single largest non-EU supplier — ahead of the United Kingdom and South Africa. Simultaneously, the EU's truck exports to Turkey more than doubled from €1.1 billion to €2.3 billion (+114.6%), making Turkey the EU's second-largest export destination. This bilateral intensification reflects Turkey's role as both a manufacturing base for European OEMs (particularly Ford Otosan) and a fast-growing logistics market.

3.2. Ukraine emerged as a major export destination after 2022

EU truck exports to Ukraine grew from €109 million in 2015 to €662 million in 2025 (+507.5%), with the steepest increases occurring from 2022 onward. This sharp acceleration is plausibly linked to Ukraine's wartime logistics needs, infrastructure rebuilding, and the deepening of EU-Ukraine trade ties following the EU's candidate-country decision and the temporary trade liberalisation measures adopted after Russia's full-scale invasion.

3.3. South Africa surged as an import source while Morocco collapsed

South African truck shipments to the EU grew from €397 million to €1.28 billion (+222.1%), making it the third-largest import partner by 2025. By contrast, imports from Morocco fell from €150 million to just €8 million (−94.8%), a near-total collapse. Morocco had peaked at €582 million in an intermediate year before declining sharply, possibly reflecting the relocation of production or changes in customs treatment of vehicles assembled in Moroccan free zones.

3.4. Import concentration rose while export markets diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value edged up from 3,493 to 3,657 (+4.7%), indicating slightly greater concentration among a handful of suppliers — principally Turkey. For exports, the HHI fell from 1,334 to 1,157 (−13.3%), pointing to a broadening of the EU's customer base. This asymmetry — more concentrated imports, more diversified exports — reduces the EU's vulnerability on the outbound side while increasing reliance on a few key suppliers.

3.5. Internal EU production shifted toward Poland and France

Among EU Member States, the most striking change in the export leaderboard was Poland's ascent: Polish truck exports grew from €513 million to €1.61 billion (+213.2%), overtaking several traditional producers. France also strengthened its position (+45.0% to €2.6 billion), while Germany — still the largest exporter at €4.8 billion — saw essentially flat growth (+0.7%). On the import side, Germany's role as a receiving country expanded dramatically (+209.4% to €1.6 billion), and Slovenia recorded a 185.6% increase to over €1 billion, likely reflecting cross-border assembly and re-export patterns within Central European supply chains.

Conclusion

The EU truck market (CN 8704) between 2015 and 2025 tells a story of structural transformation beneath a veneer of continuity. The EU remained a commanding net exporter, but the surplus narrowed as imports — particularly from Turkey and South Africa — grew at three times the pace of exports. The product mix is shifting in two directions simultaneously: toward lighter vehicles in the export basket and toward the first meaningful wave of battery-electric trucks, which emerged in 2022 and already represent a multi-billion-euro trade flow. Geographically, Turkey's dual role as both supplier and customer intensified, Ukraine became a fast-growing export market in the wake of geopolitical upheaval, and intra-EU production relocated toward Central and Eastern Europe. The combination of rising import concentration, accelerating electrification, and shifting production geographies suggests that the coming years will test the EU's ability to maintain its trade advantage in an increasingly competitive and technologically disrupted commercial vehicle market.