Market evolution: Medium-duty trucks (CN 870422) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU external trade in medium-duty diesel trucks (Customs Code 870422) between 2015 and 2025. The analysis focuses on identifying and explaining the main trends in trade values, volumes, partner relationships, and market structure. The data reveals a market characterised by a significant post-2020 export surge, a reshaping of key trade partnerships, and a notable shift in the EU's internal production and export specialisation.

1. A Post-2020 Export Boom Reshaped Trade Volumes and Prices

The period shows a distinct break in trade dynamics around 2020. Following a general decline or stagnation in exports from 2015 to 2019, a powerful recovery and growth phase began in 2021, which fundamentally altered the market's scale and price structure.

Export values and volumes diverged sharply. EU exports fell from €2.37 billion in 2015 to a low of €1.69 billion in 2021. By 2025, they had recovered to €2.08 billion. In contrast, the exported volume (in net tonnes) dropped significantly, from 588,000 tonnes in 2015 to just 430,000 tonnes in 2020, and only recovered to 496,000 tonnes in 2025. This indicates a substantial increase in the average value per tonne of exported trucks. (View trade overview)
Unit prices for new trucks climbed steadily. The export price for new vehicles (CN 87042291) in tonnes rose from €10,363/t in 2015 to €13,377/t in 2025. Import prices for new vehicles showed an even steeper climb, from €7,778/t to €13,642/t over the same period. This reflects both global inflationary pressures and a likely shift towards more expensive, advanced truck models. (View product segment breakdown)
The count of exported units surged, masking the tonnage decline. The supplementary unit count (number of items) for exports exploded from 73,097 vehicles in 2015 to 315,224 in 2025. This 264% increase, occurring while tonnage fell by 16%, suggests a major shift in the product mix towards lighter medium-duty trucks or a change in reporting, fundamentally altering the average weight per exported vehicle. (View trade overview)

2. The United Kingdom's Dominance Faded, Creating New Export Corridors

The geopolitical and economic shift of Brexit is clearly visible in the data, leading to a reconfiguration of the EU's main trade partners for medium-duty trucks.

Exports to the United Kingdom collapsed. The UK was the EU's top export destination, with exports valued at €690 million in 2015. By 2025, this had fallen by 53% to €327 million. In volume terms, the drop was even starker, making the UK a less critical market for the EU's trucking industry. (View top partners)
New export markets emerged in importance. Several countries stepped in to fill the gap. Ukraine became a crucial destination, with exports rising from €16 million in 2015 to €145 million in 2025. Exports to Türkiye more than doubled to €282 million. Jordan, Serbia, and various West African nations (Nigeria, Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire) also maintained or grew as significant markets, indicating a strategic diversification of EU export flows. (View top partners)
The UK remained the EU's primary supplier, albeit with a changing share. Imports from the UK accounted for €234 million in 2015 and €252 million in 2025, growing modestly (+7%). This underscores the enduring, albeit transformed, integration of UK-EU supply chains in this sector. Norway and Türkiye also grew as notable import sources. (View top partners)

3. The EU's Internal Export Landscape Shifted from Core to Eastern Economies

Concurrent with changes in external partners, the internal distribution of export activity within the EU underwent a significant transformation, highlighting new production hubs.

Poland emerged as a dominant and specialised exporter. While traditional manufacturing giants like Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands saw their export values decline or stagnate, Poland's exports skyrocketed from €44 million in 2015 to €250 million in 2025—a 465% increase. Poland also exhibited the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index after Finland, confirming its new specialisation. (View top reporters, View specialisation)
Austria and Belgium saw steep declines. Austrian exports fell by 88% from €231 million to just €28 million. Belgian exports halved from €225 million to €110 million. This suggests a reallocation of production capacity or competitive advantages away from these countries. (View top reporters)
Export market concentration decreased. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports fell from 1071 to 679 between 2015 and 2025. This indicates that the EU's export base became less reliant on a few large partners and more diversified across a wider range of countries, enhancing resilience but also reflecting the decline of the UK as a dominant single market. (View concentration)

Conclusion

The EU market for medium-duty diesel trucks between 2015 and 2025 was defined by three concurrent transformations. First, a robust export recovery post-2020 was driven more by value than volume, pointing to inflationary pressures and product mix changes. Second, the trade landscape was redrawn by the UK's exit from the EU, causing a collapse in direct exports and forcing a rapid diversification towards Ukraine, Türkiye, and other emerging markets. Finally, the internal EU production landscape shifted, with Poland rising as a major export hub while traditional Western European producers lost share. These dynamics illustrate an industry adapting to new geopolitical realities and competitive pressures, even as it navigates the broader energy transition away from pure diesel propulsion.