Market evolution: Heavy diesel trucks (CN 870423) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of EU external trade in heavy-duty diesel trucks (customs code 870423) between 2015 and 2025. The period was characterized by the EU's consistent position as a major net exporter, with trade flows shaped by strong demand from key non-EU partners, significant price inflation for both exports and imports, and notable volatility in specific bilateral relationships. The EU's trade surplus in this sector widened over the period, driven by robust export performance despite a temporary dip during the 2020 pandemic year.

I. The EU as a Dominant and Resilient Net Exporter

The EU's trade in heavy diesel trucks is overwhelmingly oriented toward exports, establishing a consistently large and growing trade surplus. This section examines the scale of this surplus, the underlying drivers of export strength, and the sector's strong self-sufficiency.

A persistent and expanding trade surplus

The EU has maintained a substantial and growing trade surplus in heavy diesel trucks throughout the period. The surplus in value terms increased from approximately €3.51 billion in 2015 to €4.41 billion in 2025, a rise of 25.7%. This growth occurred despite a temporary contraction during the 2020 pandemic shock. The strength of the surplus underscores the EU's dominant position as a global producer and exporter of these high-value capital goods.

Export growth driven by value, not volume

EU export value grew by 28.5% between 2015 and 2025, rising from €3.65 billion to €4.69 billion. However, this increase was almost entirely driven by rising prices (+24.6%), as export volume in tonnes increased only marginally by 3.1%. The average unit export price (EUR per tonne) rose significantly, indicating a shift towards higher-value or more expensive vehicles, or broad-based inflationary pressures in the sector.

Strong autonomy and low import reliance

The EU's net import reliance for heavy diesel trucks was negative at the start and end of the period, confirming its status as a net exporter. While reliance fluctuated, it remained strongly negative, reaching -116.2% in 2021 before settling at -83.3% in 2025. Similarly, the export propensity (exports as a share of production) was high, starting at 50.6% in 2015 and standing at 46.9% in 2025, highlighting the sector's deep integration into global markets and its export-oriented production base.

II. Shifting Trade Partnerships and Divergent Dynamics

While the EU's overall trade position remained strong, the underlying partnerships evolved significantly. This section explores the concentration of trade, the emergence of new key partners, and the starkly different performance of import versus export markets.

Divergent trends in top export and import partners

The EU's top export partners remained relatively stable, with the United Kingdom, Norway, and Switzerland consistently leading. However, the most dramatic growth occurred with Türkiye, which saw EU exports surge by 177.6% to become the fifth-largest destination by 2025. Israel also showed strong growth (+62.6%). In contrast, exports to China and South Korea declined over the period.

Import sources are more volatile and concentrated. Norway became the leading source of imports by value in 2025, with its share growing by 160.5%. Türkiye also saw a massive 423.0% increase in exports to the EU. The most notable trend is the near-collapse of imports of used vehicles (CN 87042399) in terms of supplementary units (vehicle count), which fell by 76.5% from 18,019 to 4,229 units, even as the mass imported rose by 43.9%.

Rising concentration in export markets and falling concentration in imports

Market concentration for EU exports increased, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) by value, rising by 22.0% from 527 to 643. This indicates a slight consolidation of export sales among fewer partners. Conversely, import concentration remained much higher but saw a more modest increase of 13.2%. The higher HHI for imports (2899) compared to exports (643) reflects a less diversified, more reliant import base for this sector.

The paradox of import value and quantity

A key dynamic is the divergence between the value, mass (tonnes), and number of imported vehicles. While import value nearly doubled (+97.7%) and mass in tonnes rose by 43.9%, the number of vehicles imported (supplementary quantity) fell by 76.5%. This suggests a dramatic shift in the composition of imports. The decline is primarily driven by a collapse in imports of used vehicles (CN 87042399), where the unit count fell from 17,329 in 2015 to 3,222 in 2025, while imports of new vehicles (CN 87042391) remained relatively stable in count. This points to a tightening of the market for used heavy diesel trucks.

III. Uneven Regional Performance and Shocks

The aggregate trends mask significant volatility and heterogeneity at the country level. This section highlights the role of individual EU member states in driving trade flows and examines specific bilateral price shocks.

German dominance in exports is challenged by French and Polish growth

Germany remains the EU's largest exporter of heavy diesel trucks, but its share has declined, with export value falling by 15.4% over the period. In contrast, France and Belgium saw explosive growth in exports (+281.5% and +96.8% respectively). Poland emerged as a major exporter, with its export value growing by 433.4% to €442 million in 2025, indicating a shift in the production landscape within the EU.

Concentration of imports into a few EU members

EU imports of heavy diesel trucks are concentrated in a few member states. The Netherlands has consistently been a leading importer. Germany's imports more than doubled in value (+108.7%), while Sweden and Estonia also saw significant increases. Notably, Romania's import value grew from a negligible base by over 9,000%, suggesting it became a key entry point for vehicles in the latter part of the period.

Identifiable bilateral price shocks

The volatility analysis detected specific price shocks in EU trade flows. The most significant was a price shock for exports to Morocco in 2019, with an abnormality score of 81.8 and a 28.0% price shift. A major price spike for exports to Libya in 2018 (132.2% shift) and to Jordan in 2022 (49.8% shift) were also identified. These shocks, while notable, occurred in markets with a relatively small share of total EU export value, limiting their impact on the overall trade performance.

Conclusion

The EU's market for heavy diesel trucks (CN 870423) between 2015 and 2025 was characterized by resilience and robust export performance. The trade surplus expanded, underpinned by significant price appreciation for exported vehicles. The sector remains a cornerstone of EU industrial strength, with high export propensity and negative import reliance.

However, the period also revealed structural shifts. Trade partnerships are evolving, with notable growth in exports to Türkiye and a major contraction in the used vehicle import market. Within the EU, production and export leadership, while still centered in Germany, is showing signs of decentralization, with France and Poland becoming much more significant players. The data points to an industry in transition, adapting to market demands and price pressures while maintaining its competitive edge on the global stage.