Market evolution: Diesel light trucks (CN 870421) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of the European Union in diesel-powered light goods vehicles of up to 5 tonnes gross weight (Combined Nomenclature code 870421) over the period 2015–2025. The product scope covers a broad range of vehicles—from small diesel vans and pickups to light-duty trucks—spanning both new and used vehicles, and including sub-segments distinguished by engine cylinder capacity (≤2,500 cm³ vs. >2,500 cm³). Over the decade, the EU consistently maintained a trade surplus in this product category, underpinned by a large domestic production base valued at €26.0 billion in 2025. Yet beneath this headline stability, the period witnessed significant structural shifts: import values surged far more rapidly than exports, vehicle composition evolved markedly, and the geographic configuration of trade was reshaped by Brexit, emerging supply hubs, and new demand centres.

1. A Widening Disparity Between Export and Import Growth

The trade surplus halved despite growing production

The EU's trade surplus in diesel light trucks narrowed from €2.88 billion in 2015 to just €1.45 billion in 2025, a contraction of 49.5%. This occurred even though EU domestic production grew from €21.5 billion to €26.0 billion (+21.1%) in value and from 1,285,482 to 1,451,142 tonnes (+12.9%) in volume over the same period. The explanation lies in a sharp asymmetry: import values surged by 48.8% while export values grew by only 7.7%.

Source: General trade overview and vulnerability indicators.

Volume trends tell a different story from values

A striking feature of the period is the divergence between volume and value trajectories. While export values rose modestly (+7.7%), the number of vehicles exported surged by 40.5% (from 484,440 to 680,584 units). Simultaneously, export mass in tonnes actually declined by 6.9% (from 869,485 to 809,132 tonnes). This implies that the average exported vehicle became substantially lighter—dropping from roughly 1.80 tonnes to 1.19 tonnes per unit—pointing to a compositional shift toward smaller, lighter diesel vehicles in the EU's export basket. On the import side, the vehicle count was virtually flat (303,028 to 302,655 units, −0.1%), meaning that nearly all of the 48.8% increase in import value was driven by higher unit prices rather than greater volumes.

COVID-19 caused a sharp but temporary contraction

The year 2020 marked a clear trough in both flows. Export values fell to their minimum of €5.81 billion and import values to €3.94 billion, with export mass declining to 724,243 tonnes. The recovery was swift: by 2023, both export values (€8.82 billion) and import values (€6.45 billion) reached their decade highs. The subsequent pullback in 2024–2025 likely reflects both normalisation after a post-pandemic restocking cycle and the early effects of tightening EU CO₂ regulations on diesel vehicle demand.

2. A Compositional Revolution: Used Vehicles and Shifting Price Dynamics

Unit prices diverged sharply between imports and exports

The most revealing price signal in this market is the divergence between import and export unit prices. The average import price per vehicle (supplementary unit) rose from €13,250 to €19,744 (+49.0%), while the average export price per vehicle fell from €14,236 to €10,917 (−23.3%). By 2025, the EU was importing vehicles at nearly double the per-unit price it was exporting them for.

The used-vehicle segment (87042199) grew explosively

Behind these aggregate figures lies a dramatic segment-level shift. The subheading 87042199—used diesel trucks with cylinder capacity ≤2,500 cm³—experienced extraordinary growth in unit counts on both sides of the ledger:

Export flows of 87042199 grew from 82,389 to 296,706 units, making used small-engined diesel trucks the single largest category by vehicle count in EU exports by 2025. This shift largely explains why the average mass per exported vehicle fell so steeply: these used vehicles are lighter on average. The supplementary price per exported used vehicle fell from €3,431 to €1,485 (−56.8%), consistent with the disposal of ageing fleets from EU markets to third-country buyers.

New-vehicle imports grew more expensive, especially from Türkiye

On the import side, the dominant segment 87042191 (new, ≤2,500 cm³) saw its per-unit price rise from €13,189 to €22,673 (+71.9%) even as vehicle counts fell by 22.3%. This suggests that the new diesel light trucks being imported into the EU became both fewer and more expensive—a pattern consistent with model-level inflation, the integration of more advanced (and costly) emissions-control technology, and a possible shift toward higher-specification vehicles. Meanwhile, the segment 87042131 (engines >2,500 cm³) more than tripled in import volume (7,405 to 24,155 units), with its share of total import value rising from €159 million to €726 million.

3. Geographic Reconfiguration: Concentrated Imports, Diversifying Exports

Türkiye consolidated its position as the EU's dominant supplier

The partner composition of EU imports shifted decisively toward Türkiye over the decade. Turkish-origin imports rose from €2.71 billion (2015) to €4.03 billion (2025, +48.7%), maintaining a remarkably stable two-thirds share of total EU imports throughout the period. South Africa emerged as the second-largest supplier, with imports surging from €349 million to €1.17 billion (+236.1%), reflecting the growth of light-commercial-vehicle production there (notably by Toyota and other OEMs for European-bound exports). Conversely, the United Kingdom's share collapsed from €326 million to €229 million (−29.7%), a direct consequence of Brexit and the shift of the UK to a separate trade partner status. Morocco and India, once niche suppliers, saw their import values collapse by 92.6% and 97.4% respectively.

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose from 4,770 to 5,040 (+5.7%), confirming that import sourcing became more concentrated—effectively centred on Türkiye and, increasingly, South Africa.

The United Kingdom remained the top export destination but lost ground

On the export side, the United Kingdom continued to dominate, absorbing €2.73 billion in 2025 (down from €3.22 billion in 2015, −15.1%). However, several emerging partners gained significant share:

Ukrainian imports of EU diesel light trucks grew nearly fourfold (+269.8%), almost certainly linked to wartime logistics and reconstruction needs following Russia's 2022 invasion. The export HHI fell from 2,430 to 1,865 (−23.3%), indicating that the EU's export base became meaningfully more diversified over the period.

Central and Southern European producers drove export growth

Among EU Member States, Germany remained the largest exporter (€2.21 billion in 2025, −14.1% from 2015), but the most dynamic growth came from Poland (+141.3%, reaching €835 million), Spain (+36.9%, €1.20 billion), and France (+8.0%, €1.45 billion). Poland's emergence as a major exporter is consistent with its revealed comparative advantage (RSCA = 0.46), alongside Slovenia (RSCA = 0.61), Portugal (0.49), and Spain (0.40) as the most specialised EU exporters in this product. On the import side, Germany's imports surged from €359 million to €1.25 billion (+246.7%), while the Netherlands saw a near-total collapse from €406 million to €23 million (−94.3%), suggesting a loss of its role as a transit hub for third-country vehicles.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU's trade in diesel light trucks underwent a quiet but profound transformation. The bloc remained a net exporter throughout, and its net export position relative to domestic production even strengthened (net import reliance fell from −4.9% to −9.0%). However, the absolute trade surplus narrowed by nearly half as import values grew six times faster than export values. This was driven overwhelmingly by price increases rather than volume growth on the import side, while on the export side a massive expansion in used-vehicle shipments suppressed average unit values despite rising vehicle counts.

Structurally, the market is becoming more polarised: imports are increasingly concentrated in a few supplier countries—above all Türkiye, which alone accounts for two-thirds of EU imports—while export destinations are diversifying, with Ukraine and Türkiye as the fastest-growing markets. Looking ahead, the EU's tightening CO₂ emission standards and the accelerating transition to electric drivetrains are likely to put structural pressure on this diesel-specific product category. The current data may therefore capture a late-cycle phase in which diesel light trucks are increasingly exported as second-hand vehicles to non-EU markets while new-vehicle trade gradually shifts toward alternative powertrains in other CN codes.