Market evolution: Diesel pickup trucks (CN 87042131) — 2015–2025

Introduction

CN 87042131 covers diesel-powered motor vehicles for the transport of goods with a gross vehicle weight not exceeding 5 tonnes and an engine cylinder capacity exceeding 2 500 cm³ — a category encompassing the large diesel pickup trucks and light commercial vehicles produced and traded across the EU. Over the decade 2015–2025, the EU's external trade in this product category underwent a dramatic structural transformation. The Union swung from a trade surplus of €549 million in 2015 to a deficit of €331 million in 2025, driven by a simultaneous collapse of exports (–44.3% in value) and a surge in imports (+356.6%). These shifts reflect changing manufacturing footprints, the near-disappearance of the United States as an export destination, and the growing dominance of South Africa as a supplier. This report examines these dynamics in three sections.

Scope & Definitions on the Trade Dashboard

1. The Vanishing Export Engine: How the United States Disappeared from EU Export Maps

1.1 EU exports fell by nearly half over the decade

EU exports of CN 87042131 declined from €708 million and 26 400 units in 2015 to €395 million and 13 770 units in 2025 — a drop of 44.3% in value and 47.8% in vehicle count. The peak year saw exports reach €1 025 million (with 40 066 units), after which a sustained contraction set in. By 2025, export volumes were at their lowest point in the entire period.

General Overview — Trade

1.2 The collapse of the United States as an export destination explains the bulk of the decline

The most striking single factor behind the export decline is the near-total evaporation of exports to the United States. In 2015, the US was the EU's largest export market for this product, absorbing €253 million — more than a third of all EU exports. By 2025, exports to the US had fallen to just €129 556, a decline of 99.9%. This collapse alone accounts for a €253 million reduction, which represents the majority of the overall €314 million export decline. The disappearance of this market — likely linked to US trade policy measures (Section 232 tariffs on motor vehicles from the EU imposed from 2018 onwards) and shifting consumer preferences — fundamentally reshaped the EU's export profile.

Top Partners — Exports

1.3 Traditional English-speaking markets also retreated, while Türkiye emerged as the new leading destination

Beyond the United States, the EU's other traditional Anglophone export markets — the United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada — all contracted sharply (–64.1%, –64.8%, and –73.3% respectively). Switzerland, another high-income market, declined by 65.0%. In stark contrast, exports to Türkiye surged from €17 million to €182 million (+976.4%), making it the EU's largest export destination by 2025. This remarkable shift likely reflects both the EU–Turkey Customs Union framework and the growing role of Türkiye as a regional hub for light commercial vehicle distribution. South Africa remained the most stable export partner, recording only a marginal decline of –4.4%.

The concentration of EU exports also increased: the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export value rose from 1 685 to 2 401, indicating that exports became more concentrated on fewer partners — particularly Türkiye — making the EU more exposed to country-specific demand shocks.

1.4 Germany remained the leading EU exporter but saw the steepest decline

Among EU Member States, Germany was by far the largest exporter throughout the period, accounting for €446 million in 2015 (63% of EU exports). However, German exports fell by 73.4% to €119 million by 2025, mirroring the collapse in US-bound shipments. Italy held relatively steady (–21.7%), while Spain (+54.9%) and Portugal (+46.6%) gained share, and Belgium's exports fluctuated widely over the period. Austria's exports also declined sharply (–72.7%).

Top Reporters — Exports

2. South Africa's Ascendancy: A Single-Source Import Surge

2.1 EU imports more than tripled, driven almost entirely by South Africa

EU imports of CN 87042131 grew from €159 million (7 405 units) in 2015 to €726 million (24 155 units) in 2025 — a 356.6% increase in value and a 226.2% increase in vehicle count. The growth was overwhelmingly concentrated in a single supplier: South Africa, which accounted for €137 million in 2015 and €692 million in 2025 (+407%). By 2025, South Africa supplied 95.3% of all EU imports by value in this category.

Top Partners — Imports

2.2 South Africa's role reflects its position as a global pickup truck manufacturing hub

South Africa is one of the world's leading production centres for pickup trucks — including well-known models such as the Toyota Hilux, Ford Ranger, and Isuzu D-Max — many of which feature diesel engines exceeding 2 500 cm³. The surge in EU imports from South Africa likely reflects the combination of competitive manufacturing costs, duty-free or preferential access under the EU–SADC Economic Partnership Agreement, and the strong European demand for these vehicles, which serve both commercial and increasingly lifestyle/recreational segments. The sharp increase in average import price per unit — from €21 473 in 2015 to €30 057 in 2025 (+40.0%) — suggests a compositional shift toward higher-specification, better-equipped variants.

2.3 Belgium and Germany became the primary EU entry points

The import surge flowed primarily through Belgium and Germany. Belgium's imports rose from €60 million to €299 million (+395%), while Germany's jumped from €7 million to €246 million (+3 220%). Czechia also emerged as a significant importer (from €3 million to €73 million). Italy grew to €33 million. These entry points likely reflect port infrastructure (Antwerp/Zeebrugge for Belgium) and the distribution networks of major vehicle brands within the EU. Meanwhile, France's imports declined (–43.7%) and Ireland's fell by 27%, suggesting a redistribution of import flows within the EU.

Top Reporters — Imports

2.4 Import concentration rose significantly, heightening supply-side risk

The HHI for import concentration by value increased from 7 520 in 2015 to 9 227 in 2025 (+22.7%), confirming the growing dominance of South Africa. An HHI above 9 000 indicates a highly concentrated import structure. This concentration means the EU's supply of large diesel pickup trucks from outside the bloc is heavily dependent on a single country, creating vulnerability to disruptions in South African production, logistics, or trade policy — whether from power shortages (load-shedding), port congestion, or changes in EPA rules.

3. Structural Realignment: Domestic Production, Price Dynamics, and Shifting Trade Patterns

3.1 EU domestic production grew steadily despite the trade balance deterioration

Despite the trade surplus turning into a deficit, EU production of CN 87042131 expanded from 1 285 482 tonnes and €21.5 billion in 2015 to 1 451 142 tonnes and €26.0 billion in 2025 — an increase of 12.9% in volume and 21.1% in value. The EU therefore remains a major global producer in this segment, and the production base continued to grow throughout the period, including through the COVID-19 shock of 2020. The trade deficit does not signal a decline in EU manufacturing capacity; rather, it reflects a growing domestic appetite for imported pickup trucks — particularly from South Africa — alongside a contraction in export demand.

3.2 Unit prices rose on both sides of the trade ledger, indicating a premium-product shift

Average prices per vehicle increased for both exports and imports. The export unit price rose from €26 825 to €28 655 (+6.8%), while the import unit price climbed from €21 473 to €30 057 (+40.0%). The much steeper rise in import prices is consistent with a shift in the composition of South African imports toward higher-value, better-equipped pickup trucks — potentially reflecting European consumer preferences for premium specifications, or the arrival of new high-end models in the segment. By 2025, imported vehicles were on average more expensive per unit than exported ones, a reversal of the 2015 pattern, which may partly explain why the trade deficit in value terms (-€331 million) exceeds what a simple volume comparison would suggest.

3.3 Export specialisation reveals a Southern European and small-state concentration

According to the revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) data for 2025, Italy (RSCA 0.68), Estonia (0.60), Portugal (0.49), Spain (0.29), and Slovenia (0.19) are the most specialised EU exporters in this product category. Italy alone accounts for 42.6% of the EU's production in CN 87042131. At the other end, Ireland, Finland, Romania, Denmark, and the Netherlands display strong negative specialisation, with near-zero export activity in this segment. These patterns point to a Southern European manufacturing cluster — likely linked to Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese commercial vehicle plants — while Northern and Western European countries import rather than export this category.

3.4 Trade openness increased modestly while the EU's net exporter position narrowed

The trade intensity ratio edged up from 42.1% to 44.3%, and export propensity rose from 28.4% to 31.4%, indicating that the EU's heavy-duty diesel truck sector became slightly more integrated into global trade flows. However, the net import reliance metric, while remaining negative (indicating the EU is still a net exporter in production-adjusted terms), moved from –4.9% to –9.0% — a change of –82.9%. This means that relative to its enormous production base (~€26 billion), the EU's net exporter surplus nearly doubled in intensity, even as the nominal trade balance flipped to deficit. In other words, production growth outpaced the trade balance deterioration.

3.5 Volatility and price shocks marked specific bilateral relationships

The volatility analysis reveals high coefficient-of-variation values for several trade flows. On the import side, China (CV 2.84) and Morocco (CV 1.92) showed the most erratic patterns, though from low absolute bases. On the export side, the top detected shock events include:

• Israel (2022, exports): An abnormally large price drop (–10.4%, abnormality score 46.9), accounting for 4.8% of export value — possibly linked to competitive pricing pressures or fleet procurement changes.
• Türkiye (2023, exports): A price spike of +49.8% (abnormality 39.2), with a 10.7% share of export value — coinciding with the rapid ramp-up of exports to Türkiye, likely reflecting a mix of higher-spec models and possible currency effects (lira depreciation increasing the euro-denominated unit price).
• Australia (2020, exports): A mild price dip (–3.5%, abnormality 8.5), likely linked to COVID-19 demand disruption and the Australian market contraction.

Conclusion

The decade 2015–2025 witnessed a fundamental restructuring of the EU's external trade in large diesel pickup trucks. The most consequential development was the dual shock of collapsing exports — driven by the near-total loss of the US market and retreat from other Anglophone and Swiss markets — and surging imports overwhelmingly sourced from South Africa. The result was a swing from a €549 million trade surplus to a €331 million deficit.

Yet the EU's domestic manufacturing base remained robust, with production growing by over 21% in value to €26 billion, anchored by a Southern European cluster led by Italy. The trade deficit is therefore less a sign of deindustrialisation than of growing European demand for South African-manufactured pickup trucks alongside the redirection of EU export capacity toward Türkiye as the new leading destination.

Looking forward, the concentration of imports from a single source (South Africa at 95% of import value) presents a meaningful supply-side vulnerability. Meanwhile, the EU's tightening emissions regulations and the broader electrification trajectory for transport vehicles will inevitably reshape the competitive landscape for this traditionally diesel-heavy segment, potentially altering the trade patterns described in this report in the years ahead.