Market evolution: Light petrol trucks (CN 870431) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in goods classified under CN 870431 — light motor vehicles for the transport of goods powered exclusively by a spark-ignition (petrol) internal combustion engine, with a gross vehicle weight not exceeding 5 tonnes. The product scope encompasses new and used vehicles across several engine-capacity subcategories, and covers the period from 2015 to 2025 inclusive.

Over this decade, the EU's trade position in this product category underwent a profound structural transformation. The bloc shifted from a moderate net-import position to a pronounced net-export one, while total trade volumes remained volatile and domestic production declined substantially. These dynamics unfolded against the backdrop of tightening EU CO₂ regulations, the accelerating electrification of light commercial vehicles, and the United Kingdom's departure from the EU single market — all of which left deep marks on trade flows, partner composition, and pricing structures.

The analysis is organised around three central findings: (1) the EU's conversion into a strong net exporter, (2) a dramatic geographic reorientation of both import and export partnerships, and (3) the interplay between declining production, rising unit values, and the broader transition away from internal-combustion-engine vehicles.

1. The EU's Emergence as a Structural Net Exporter

The most striking macro-level development over 2015–2025 is the EU's decisive shift from a modest net-import position to a large net-export surplus in light petrol trucks. What was a €55 million trade surplus in 2015 grew to €222 million by 2025 — a more-than-fourfold increase in nominal terms.

The trade balance widened dramatically while both flows moved in opposite directions

The trade overview reveals a clear divergence between export and import trajectories:

In volume terms the asymmetry is even more pronounced. Export tonnage edged up by only 3.2 % (from 28,353 t to 29,268 t), whereas import tonnage collapsed by 69.5 % (from 23,742 t to 7,234 t). The EU thus maintained roughly stable export volumes while nearly three-quarters of import volumes evaporated.

Net import reliance swung sharply into negative territory

The net import reliance indicator captures this structural shift numerically. In 2015 the reading stood at −38.3 % (already indicating a net-export position), but by 2025 it had fallen to −146.0 %, meaning the EU's net exports in this category were 1.5 times larger than its domestic production base. At its most extreme (reaching −263.1 % at one point), the EU was exporting far more than it produced domestically — a pattern consistent with re-export activity and intra-firm shipments from EU assembly plants to third-country markets.

Export propensity surged well above 100 %

The export propensity — the ratio of exports to domestic production — rose from 68.5 % in 2015 to 113.0 % in 2025, peaking at 123.1 %. This means that by the end of the period the EU was exporting more light petrol trucks than it was producing domestically. While this may appear paradoxical, it is explained by the fact that production data refer to CN 870431 as a whole and may include vehicles subsequently reclassified, while some exported vehicles may have been sourced from stocks or assembled from imported CKD kits. The trade intensity ratio, measuring total trade relative to production, climbed from 77.6 % to 108.4 %, confirming that this product category became increasingly oriented towards external markets over the decade.

2. A Radical Reorientation of Trade Partnerships

Behind the headline aggregate figures lies a dramatic reshuffling of the EU's trading partners. Long-standing supplier relationships collapsed, while new corridors — some of them politically significant — emerged in their place.

Traditional import suppliers lost their dominant positions

The top import partners data show a striking decline of the EU's historically largest non-EU suppliers:

Türkiye and Morocco, which together accounted for the bulk of non-EU imports in 2015, saw their shipments to the EU virtually disappear. This collapse likely reflects a combination of factors: the relocation of production capacity into the EU (particularly by manufacturers with plants in Türkiye), shifting product mix towards electric variants not captured by CN 870431, and tighter EU regulatory and certification requirements.

Mexico and China emerged as growing suppliers

Partially offsetting these declines, several partners sharply increased their EU-bound shipments:

Mexico's rise to become one of the EU's top suppliers is notable. It may reflect North American OEMs leveraging Mexico as a production base for global export, as well as the EU–Mexico trade agreement facilitating preferential access. China's growth, while starting from a small base, aligns with the broader expansion of Chinese automotive exports globally — although in this specific ICE-powered segment, the volumes remain modest compared to Türkiye's former position.

The United Kingdom became the EU's dominant export market

The top export partners data reveal a radical reorientation:

The UK's emergence as the overwhelmingly dominant export destination — growing nearly elevenfold — is the single most consequential partner-level shift in this dataset. Following Brexit and the end of the transition period, EU-based manufacturers appear to have restructured their supply chains so that vehicles destined for the UK market are now classified as exports rather than intra-EU movements. The UK accounted for roughly one-third of all EU exports in this category by 2025, a share that has dramatically concentrated the EU's export HHI from 820 in 2015 to 1,954 in 2025 — more than doubling, and shifting the export base from well-diversified to moderately concentrated.

Meanwhile, several formerly significant export markets (Canada, Saudi Arabia) saw their purchases collapse to near-zero, reflecting the global contraction in demand for petrol-powered light trucks.

Export flows exhibited extreme volatility, including a dramatic 2023 spike

The volatility analysis highlights that several export partnerships were characterised by extreme instability. The coefficient of variation for US exports stood at 1.67, for Algeria at 2.29, and for Saudi Arabia at 1.61. The segment data confirm that 2023 was an extraordinary year: the EU exported 89,080 tonnes of new petrol trucks (≤2.8 L engine) in that year alone — more than triple the 2015 figure — before volumes fell back to 26,539 tonnes in 2025. This spike likely reflects anticipatory stockpiling by overseas distributors ahead of expected regulatory tightening, or bulk shipments fulfilling deferred orders from the COVID-era supply chain disruptions. A price shock in Algeria in 2022 (with a 65 % price shift and an abnormality score of 49.8) further illustrates the turbulence in some African and Middle Eastern markets.

3. Declining Production, Rising Prices, and the ICE Sunset

The trade dynamics described above did not occur in a vacuum. They were shaped — and in many cases driven — by a structural contraction of the EU's domestic production base for petrol-powered light trucks, coupled with a steady increase in unit values that points to product-mix shifts and cost inflation.

EU production of light petrol trucks contracted sharply

The production volumes data show a pronounced decline over the period:

Production halved in value terms and declined by nearly a third in volume. The fact that value fell faster than volume implies a shift towards lower-value product variants within the CN 870431 range, or alternatively that higher-value production migrated to other categories (including electric light commercial vehicles under different CN codes). This decline is consistent with the broader European automotive industry's strategic pivot away from ICE platforms, as manufacturers redirect capital expenditure towards electrified drivetrains.

Unit values rose across virtually all segments

Despite — or perhaps because of — the shrinking production base, unit prices increased substantially across both imports and exports:

The import price per tonne rose particularly sharply (+50.7 %), which is consistent with the disappearance of low-cost imports from Türkiye and Morocco and the growing share of higher-unit-value shipments from Japan and Mexico. At the segment level, the dominant subcategory — new vehicles with engines ≤ 2.8 L (CN 87043191) — saw its import price per tonne rise from €7,309 to €13,810 over the period, nearly doubling. On the export side, the same subcategory's price rose from €7,792 to €10,763 per tonne.

The large-engine segment collapsed in exports

A particularly telling subcategory is CN 87043131 (petrol trucks with engines exceeding 2,800 cm³). EU exports of these larger-engined vehicles fell from 3,556 tonnes in 2015 to just 217 tonnes in 2025 — a 94 % decline. This segment has historically served niche commercial and utility applications, and its near-disappearance from the export statistics suggests that demand has either shifted to diesel or electric alternatives, or that manufacturers have ceased offering petrol variants in this size class for non-EU markets.

The used-vehicle trade remained a small but persistent niche

The used-vehicle subcategories (CN 87043199 for ≤ 2.8 L engines, CN 87043139 for > 2.8 L engines) represented a minor share of total trade but followed distinct patterns. Imports of used petrol trucks (≤ 2.8 L) more than doubled in volume (from 323 t to 692 t), suggesting a small but growing market for second-hand vehicles, possibly sourced from right-hand-drive markets or from countries with tighter scrappage regulations. Export prices for used vehicles in this segment rose from €1,970 to €3,246 per piece, indicating that the EU is increasingly exporting higher-quality used vehicles.

Specialisation patterns point to a geographically concentrated production footprint

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that production and export activity in CN 870431 is concentrated in a handful of EU Member States:

These four countries account for nearly half of EU production in this category. Meanwhile, major economies such as Germany (which saw its exports fall by 86 % over the period) and France (which saw imports collapse by 93.5 %) have significantly reduced their footprint in this specific ICE segment. This geographic concentration in Southern and Eastern Europe likely reflects lower production costs and the presence of multi-brand assembly plants oriented towards export.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in light petrol trucks (CN 870431) over 2015–2025 tells the story of a product category in structural decline. Domestic production fell by 30–50 %, traditional import channels from Türkiye and Morocco collapsed, and the large-engine export segment virtually disappeared. Yet the aggregate trade balance improved dramatically, driven by a surge in exports to the United Kingdom (a post-Brexit reclassification effect), a brief but spectacular export spike in 2023, and the near-elimination of import volumes.

Rising unit values — up roughly 30–50 % depending on the metric — suggest that whatever trade remains is shifting towards higher-specification vehicles, while the low-cost, high-volume segment of the market is migrating either to electric alternatives (classified under different CN codes and thus outside this dataset's scope) or ceasing altogether. The geographic concentration of production in Romania, Spain, Portugal, and Slovakia, combined with the increasing export-reliance ratios, indicates that the remaining ICE-light-truck industry in the EU is becoming a specialised, export-oriented niche rather than a mass-market activity.

Looking forward, the dynamics documented here are likely to intensify as EU CO₂ emission standards tighten further and urban access restrictions expand. The petrol-powered light truck, as captured by CN 870431, is on a trajectory towards marginalisation within the broader European commercial vehicle market — a transition whose trade consequences are already clearly visible in the data.