Market evolution: Heavy trucks (CN 87042391) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The European Union (EU) is a dominant global producer and exporter of new, heavy diesel trucks (CN 87042391). Over the 2015-2025 period, the general overview reveals a market characterised by substantial and growing trade surpluses. However, the period is not one of simple linear growth. It is marked by a significant shift in the value-volume relationship, a reorientation of trade flows in response to geopolitical events, and increasing price volatility. This report will detail these dynamics, examining the EU's persistent export strength, the evolving geography of its trade partnerships, and the underlying trends in pricing and production that define its competitive position.

I. The EU as a Persistent Export Powerhouse with a Changing Value-Volume Dynamic

Throughout the 2015-2025 window, the EU consistently maintained a large trade surplus in heavy diesel trucks. However, the nature of this surplus evolved significantly, with value growth far outstripping volume growth, indicating a move upmarket.

The Trade Surplus Expanded, Driven by Price Rather Than Volume

The EU's trade balance in this product category grew substantially. The surplus increased from €3.26 billion in 2015 to €4.24 billion in 2025, a rise of 29.9%. This growth, however, was not primarily fueled by exporting more trucks in mass terms. Export quantity (in net tonnes) grew by a mere 1.5% over the decade. In contrast, the total export value surged by 30.9%, from €3.33 billion to €4.36 billion. This stark divergence points to a decisive trend of increasing unit values. The average price per tonne of exported trucks (export price) rose from €8,837 to €11,403 (a 29.0% increase), while the price per vehicle (supplementary price) climbed from €87,765 to €116,449 (a 32.7% increase). This indicates that the EU is exporting more technologically advanced, better-equipped, or otherwise higher-value trucks rather than simply increasing production volume.

Imports Grew from a Low Base, Signalling Niche Market Integration

While the EU's export sector is massive, its import side is much smaller but showed dynamic growth. Import value surged by 78.5%, rising from €72.2 million to €128.9 million. Import volume (in tonnes) increased by 54.8%. This growth from a low base suggests the EU's internal market is becoming more accessible to foreign suppliers for specific niches or segments, potentially driven by competitive pricing from certain origins. Nonetheless, the EU remains a profound net exporter, with net import reliance standing at -83.3% in 2025, underscoring its autonomy in this sector.

II. A Shifting Geography of Trade Partnerships and Internal Specialization

The EU's external trade in heavy trucks is characterised by both geographic diversification and significant shifts in the importance of specific partners, alongside a clear internal division of labour among its member states.

Export Markets: The Rise of Turkey and Sustained Demand from the UK

The top export destinations highlight evolving demand. The United Kingdom remained the single largest destination, with exports growing 54.5% to €765 million. The most dramatic change, however, was the rise of Türkiye as a major partner. Exports to Türkiye exploded by 170.2%, rising from €177 million to €478 million, making it the second-largest non-EU destination by 2025. In contrast, exports to the Russian Federation fell by 41.4%, likely reflecting the impact of geopolitical sanctions. South Korea, while still a top-5 partner, saw a 31.4% decline.

Import Origins: Turkey's Emergence as the Leading Source

The structure of EU imports is undergoing a profound shift. Türkiye is no longer just a key export market but has become the primary source of imports, with its value growing an extraordinary 742.1% to €40.4 million. Switzerland and Norway, traditional partners, also showed healthy import growth of 23.7% and 125.9%, respectively. This suggests that Turkish manufacturing has become increasingly integrated into the European supply chain for heavy trucks, competing within the single market.

Internal EU Production and Specialization

Within the EU, specialization in heavy truck manufacturing is highly concentrated. Austria and Sweden are the most specialised producers (with high RCA and RSCA scores), meaning their exports of this product are significantly larger than their overall export shares would predict. France, the Netherlands, and Germany are also major exporters but with lower relative specialisation. Meanwhile, countries like Ireland, Croatia, and Romania have virtually no production specialization in this sector, relying on imports to meet domestic demand. This aligns with the finding that EU production quantities remained stable around 100,000-120,000 units, while value rose from €8 billion to €10 billion, indicating a focus on higher-margin production in core countries.

III. Price Volatility and the March of Unit Values

Beyond the headline figures, the period was marked by significant price shocks and a general trend toward more expensive, and presumably more advanced, vehicles in the export portfolio.

Significant Price Shocks Disrupted Bilateral Flows

The volatility analysis reveals several major price anomalies. The most pronounced was a 2022 price shock in EU imports from the United Kingdom, where the price shifted by an abnormal 58.9%, accounting for 33.1% of total import value. This likely reflects post-Brexit adjustments and supply chain bottlenecks. On the export side, a 2019 price shock for shipments to the United Arab Emirates (21.5% shift) and a 2017 shock for India (50.2% shift) highlight the volatility in key strategic markets. Türkiye also shows high volatility in imports (CV of 0.566), consistent with its rapidly changing role.

Export Concentration Increased, While Import Sources Diversified

The market concentration of EU exports became slightly more focused. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) by value for exports increased from 594 to 709, indicating a modest rise in concentration toward top destinations like the UK and Turkey. Conversely, import concentration by value fell from 2,814 to 2,354, signifying a healthy diversification of import sources beyond a few dominant suppliers. This suggests the EU is successfully finding new suppliers while strengthening its position in key export markets.

The Unit Value Trend Confirms a Move Up the Value Chain

The overarching narrative from the data is one of value over volume. The export propensity (exports as a share of production) remained very high, though it dipped slightly from 50.6% to 46.9%. This, coupled with rising unit values, strongly suggests that the EU industry is competing on technology, efficiency, and brand rather than on price or sheer volume. The trade intensity also saw a mild decline, hinting at the potential growing relative importance of the internal EU market over the period.

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 decade, the EU's heavy diesel truck sector demonstrated resilience and strategic evolution. It maintained a commanding net exporter position, but the growth was fundamentally driven by increasing the value of exports rather than their volume. The trade geography witnessed a significant pivot, with Türkiye transforming into a major bilateral partner—both as a top export destination and the leading import source. Internally, production remains specialised in traditional manufacturing hubs like Germany, Sweden, Austria, and France. The period was punctuated by notable price shocks, reflecting underlying supply chain and geopolitical volatilities. Ultimately, the data portrays an industry that is consolidating its competitive advantage in high-value manufacturing, even as it navigates a more complex and occasionally volatile international trading landscape.