Market evolution: medium diesel trucks (CN 87042291) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in new medium diesel trucks (customs code 87042291) between 2015 and 2025. The data reveals a market undergoing a significant transformation, characterized by a decline in trade volumes, a shift in key partnerships, and a substantial increase in unit values. The period saw the EU solidify its position as a net exporter of these vehicles, though its export performance weakened considerably in the latter half of the decade. Concurrently, import dynamics shifted, with rising prices indicating changes in sourcing and product mix. The analysis is based on the provided data, which excludes incomplete annual periods.

1. A Volume Contraction Contrast with Soaring Unit Values

The most striking dynamic over the period is the pronounced divergence between declining physical trade volumes and rapidly increasing unit prices for both exports and imports.

Export volumes fell sharply while prices nearly doubled

EU exports of medium diesel trucks contracted significantly in terms of both weight and unit count. The total export volume in tonnes decreased by 37.0% from 178,661 tonnes in 2015 to 112,469 tonnes in 2025, hitting its lowest point at the end of the period. Similarly, the number of vehicles exported fell by 31.0% from 33,023 to 22,782 units. Despite this drop in volume, the total value of exports fell by only 18.7%, indicating a massive increase in unit value. The price per tonne rose by 29.1% from €10,363 to €13,377, and the price per vehicle surged by 17.8% from €56,068 to €66,041 (General Overview).

Import trends mirror this volume-price divergence

EU imports followed a similar, albeit less extreme, pattern. Import volume in tonnes fell by 34.9% from 36,519 tonnes in 2015 to 23,776 tonnes in 2025, while the number of vehicles imported dropped by 20.3%. However, the total value of imports increased by 14.2% over the same period. This was driven by a staggering 75.4% increase in the import price per tonne, rising from €7,778 to €13,642. The price per imported vehicle also climbed by 43.3% (General Overview). This sustained price inflation likely reflects a combination of inflationary pressures, a shift towards more expensive vehicle models, and the integration of new, costly technologies.

2. Shifting Geographical Patterns and Partner Concentration

The geographical landscape of EU trade for these trucks evolved, with major shifts among key partners and a general diversification away from historical concentrations.

The United Kingdom's role diminished for exports but remained dominant for imports

The United Kingdom, the EU's largest partner for both exports and imports, experienced contrasting trends. Exports to the UK plummeted by 53.3% in value, from €679 million in 2015 to €317 million in 2025, falling from accounting for ~37% of all exports to ~21%. In contrast, imports from the UK remained relatively stable, growing slightly by 3.9% to €228 million, thereby solidifying its position as the source of over 70% of EU imports by value (General Overview). This divergence underscores the deep integration of supply chains with the UK, where semi-finished vehicles or components may be exported for final assembly or specific market servicing before re-import.

The EU forged stronger export ties with Türkiye while increasing import reliance

The most dramatic partnership shift occurred with Türkiye. EU exports to Türkiye surged by 107.1% to become the second-largest export destination by 2025, with value reaching €256 million. Simultaneously, EU imports from Türkiye soared by 213.9%, making it the second-largest source of imports after the UK (General Overview). This strong two-way trade growth points to deepening industrial linkages, likely within regional value chains. Concurrently, traditional European export markets like Australia (-54.9%) and Switzerland (-23.3%) saw significant declines.

Export market concentration decreased as reliance on key partners fell

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of market concentration, shows that EU exports became significantly less concentrated between 2015 and 2025. The HHI for export value fell by 38.7% from 1,639 to 1,005, indicating a diversification away from the top few partners (General Overview). For imports, concentration also decreased, though it remained much higher (HHI of 5,377 in 2025), reflecting persistent dominance by the UK.

3. The EU's Evolving Role: Strong Production, Weakening Export Position

The data depicts an EU that remains a major global producer of these trucks but is facing challenges translating this capacity into export growth, leading to a reduced trade surplus.

Domestic production remained stable despite external trade shifts

Data on EU production shows remarkable stability, with the number of units produced dipping only slightly from 50,000 to 50,368 and production value growing marginally by 5.7% to €3.17 billion (Market Structure). This suggests that the decline in export volumes is not due to a collapse in EU manufacturing capacity but rather to a reorientation of output towards the internal market or a loss of price competitiveness abroad.

The EU's net exporter status strengthened, but its surplus contracted

The EU maintained a consistent and significant trade surplus throughout the period, confirming its status as a net exporter. However, this surplus eroded over time. The net export balance fell by 24.7% from €1.57 billion in 2015 to €1.18 billion in 2025 (General Overview). This contraction occurred because import values grew while export values fell, widening the EU's net import reliance from -49.1% to -61.3%. While still a net exporter, the EU became more reliant on imports relative to its exports, indicating a structural shift in the trade balance (Autonomy & Vulnerability).

Specialization is geographically concentrated within the EU

Within the EU, production and export of these trucks are highly specialized in specific member states. In 2025, Finland and Poland exhibited the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA) scores, indicating strong export specialization. In contrast, large economies like Romania and Ireland showed virtually no specialization in this product category (Market Structure). This highlights the sector's fragmented industrial footprint across the bloc, with production capacity concentrated in particular hubs.

Conclusion

The period 2015-2025 was transformative for the EU's trade in medium diesel trucks. The market faced a clear contraction in physical trade volumes, which was counterbalanced and exceeded by a dramatic escalation in unit values, reflecting inflationary and technological trends. Geographically, the UK's role as a key trading partner persisted, but its dominance in exports waned, while ties with Türkiye deepened significantly. The EU's export markets became more diversified, lessening reliance on any single partner. Despite stable production, the EU's export performance weakened, leading to a contraction in its historically strong trade surplus and an increased net import reliance. Looking ahead, the sector faces continued pressure from environmental regulations driving a transition away from diesel, which will likely further reshape trade patterns and production specialization within and outside the European Union.