Market evolution: Used diesel trucks (CN 87042299) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's extra-EU trade in used diesel trucks classified under CN 87042299 — medium-duty motor vehicles for the transport of goods, powered exclusively by a diesel or semi-diesel engine, with a gross vehicle weight exceeding 5 tonnes but not exceeding 20 tonnes, and of used condition. Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU consistently maintained a large trade surplus in this product category, exporting roughly six to seven times more by value than it imported. Total export value grew from €518.4 million to €568.2 million (+9.6%), while imports rose from €56.7 million to €87.9 million (+54.9%). The trade balance widened modestly from €461.6 million to €480.3 million (+4.1%). Beneath these headline figures, however, the decade was marked by significant structural shifts — in the composition of traded vehicles, in the geographic orientation of trade flows, and in the distribution of roles among EU member states.

1. More Units, Less Mass: The Diverging Composition of EU Export Flows

1.1 Export value grew modestly while volume and unit counts moved in opposite directions

EU exports in value terms increased by 9.6% over the decade, rising from €518.4 million in 2015 to €568.2 million in 2025. Tonnage (net mass), however, declined by 6.5%, falling from 409,225 tonnes to 382,822 tonnes. By stark contrast, the supplementary unit count — the number of individual vehicles — surged from 53,512 to 292,383, an increase of 446.4%. Export value hit a trough of €356.2 million at some point during the period (likely the COVID-impacted year of 2020), while the unit count reached a low of 37,817 before accelerating sharply.

1.2 The implied average vehicle weight collapsed, pointing to a compositional shift

The divergence between tonnage and unit count yields a striking transformation in the implied average mass per exported vehicle. In 2015, each exported unit corresponded to approximately 7.6 tonnes of net mass — a figure consistent with medium-duty trucks at the core of the CN 87042299 definition. By 2025, the implied average had fallen to roughly 1.3 tonnes, a value far below the 5-tonne gross vehicle weight threshold that defines this subheading. This discrepancy may indicate changes in customs reporting practices for supplementary units, a shift toward the very lightest vehicles eligible under the code, or the inclusion of vehicle types that are counted as "items" differently. The parallel collapse in the per-unit export price — from €9,687 to €1,943 (−79.9%) — is broadly consistent with a shift toward lower-value, lighter vehicles.

1.3 Import values rose faster than volumes, reflecting a premium product mix

EU imports followed a different trajectory. Import value grew by 54.9% (from €56.7 million to €87.9 million), driven by a 17.2% increase in tonnage and a 32.2% rise in the price per tonne (from €2,034 to €2,688). The supplementary unit count grew more modestly (+16.5%, from 3,363 to 3,918), while the per-unit price rose from €16,869 to €22,425 (+32.9%). Notably, the EU's import price per tonne (€2,688) is nearly double its export price per tonne (€1,484), and the import price per unit (€22,425) is more than ten times the export price per unit (€1,943). This persistent premium suggests that vehicles entering the EU from non-EU countries tend to be heavier, newer, or in better condition than those exported outward — reinforcing the EU's role as a net exporter of older, more affordable used trucks to developing markets.

2. War, Brexit, and New Corridors: The Geopolitical Reorientation of EU Trade Partners

2.1 Ukraine became the EU's fastest-growing export destination

Among non-EU export destinations, Ukraine experienced the most dramatic expansion. EU used truck exports to Ukraine rose from €11.4 million in 2015 to €43.6 million in 2025 (+282.0%), peaking at €64.9 million in an intermediate year. This surge, concentrated in the period following Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, is consistent with Ukraine's acute and ongoing need for logistics and transport vehicles. By 2025, Ukraine had become the third-largest non-EU destination by value.

2.2 West African demand rebalanced across countries while Jordan remained stable

West Africa continues to be a major export region for EU used trucks, but with notable internal shifts. Nigeria, historically the largest African destination, saw its share decline by 30.5% (from €33.5 million to €23.3 million). Togo (−41.8%) and Benin (−69.6%) experienced even steeper declines. Conversely, Guinea recorded explosive growth (+189.7%), reaching €19.7 million by 2025. These diverging trajectories likely reflect shifting logistics patterns, evolving regulatory environments, and competition from alternative suppliers in the region. Meanwhile, Jordan remained the single largest non-EU destination throughout the period, with remarkably stable trade at approximately €49–50 million per year (+1.5% over the decade).

2.3 Imports shifted toward the UK, Norway, and new sources like Türkiye and Japan

On the import side, the post-Brexit period saw the United Kingdom's used truck exports to the EU grow by 60.0%, from €14.6 million to €23.3 million. Norway — already a significant supplier — expanded even more rapidly (+79.1% to €33.6 million), becoming the largest non-EU import source by 2025. Two new entrants emerged with striking growth rates: Türkiye (+341.9% to €5.5 million) and Japan (+483.8% to €1.9 million). Switzerland, by contrast, remained relatively flat (+3.0% at €17.6 million).

2.4 Price shocks struck key partners at different moments

The volatility and shock analysis reveals that certain trade relationships experienced sharp discontinuities. Three notable price shocks were detected:

The UK import price shock of 2017 is particularly significant given the partner's 36.0% share of import value at the time, suggesting a broad-based repricing event in the UK used truck market prior to Brexit. Among import partners, Russia shows the highest volatility (CV = 1.91), followed by Belarus (CV = 0.98) and Türkiye (CV = 0.86) — patterns consistent with geopolitical disruption and sanctions regimes. On the export side, Libya (CV = 0.77) and Benin (CV = 0.67) show the most erratic trade patterns.

3. Northern Expertise, Eastern Ambition: Intra-EU Specialisation and Market Concentration

3.1 Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium anchor exports, while Poland and Denmark gain ground

Among EU member-state exporters, the top three — Germany (€138.1 million), the Netherlands (€111.0 million), and Belgium (€88.6 million) — accounted for the lion's share of outbound trade in 2025. Germany's exports grew by 4.3%, while the Netherlands contracted by 19.5% and Belgium remained flat (+0.5%). The most dynamic growth came from Poland (+134.2% to €25.1 million) and Denmark (+54.9% to €20.8 million). Sweden, by contrast, saw its exports halve (−52.8% to €10.6 million).

3.2 Nordic and Baltic states hold the strongest comparative advantage

The specialisation analysis for 2025 highlights a clear North–South divide within the EU. The five most specialised exporters are:

Estonia's Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.81 indicates an extremely strong specialisation in used truck exports relative to its overall trade profile. Finland and Denmark follow closely. At the opposite end, Ireland (RSCA = −0.95), Greece (−0.95), and Hungary (−0.93) show almost no specialisation in this product, with negligible product shares of their total exports.

3.3 Sweden and the Netherlands surged as EU importers of non-EU used trucks

On the import side, the most dynamic growth came from Sweden (+168.6% to €11.8 million) and the Netherlands (+161.3% to €9.1 million), which both overtook or approached long-established importers. Ireland remained the top importer at €12.6 million (+11.7%), while Germany's imports declined slightly (−10.5% to €10.3 million). Poland's imports more than doubled (+128.0% to €4.3 million), mirroring its export growth and suggesting the country may serve as a transit or refurbishment hub for used trucks flowing through Central Europe.

3.4 Export markets remain highly diversified while import sources are moderately concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) reveals a pronounced asymmetry between the two flows. EU exports are highly diversified, with a value-based HHI of just 355 in 2025 (down from 382 in 2015, a decline of 7.2%). This indicates that no single partner dominates EU export flows. By contrast, import sources are considerably more concentrated, with a value-based HHI of 2,856 in 2025 — a level consistent with moderate concentration driven by a small number of dominant suppliers (principally Norway, the UK, and Switzerland). The import HHI edged up marginally over the period (+0.7%), suggesting that import diversification has not improved despite the emergence of new suppliers.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in used diesel trucks over 2015–2025 reveals a market in structural transformation. The headline figures — a 9.6% rise in export value and a 4.1% widening of the trade surplus — mask deeper dynamics. Most striking is the 446% explosion in exported unit count alongside a 6.5% decline in tonnage, a divergence that points to a fundamental shift in the composition of traded vehicles and warrants further investigation into customs reporting practices. Geopolitical events have left unmistakable marks: Ukraine's rapid emergence as a major export destination following the 2022 invasion, the rebalancing of West African trade away from Nigeria toward Guinea, and the resilience of UK-to-EU used truck flows despite Brexit. Within the EU, a clear North–South specialisation divide persists, with Estonia, Finland, and Denmark holding the strongest comparative advantages, while Poland has risen rapidly on both the export and import sides. The export market remains impressively diversified, but import sources are moderately concentrated among a handful of European neighbours. Looking ahead, the EU's tightening emissions regulations and the gradual electrification of commercial vehicle fleets will reshape the pipeline of used diesel trucks available for export — a factor likely to become the dominant force shaping this market in the years beyond 2025.