Market evolution: Motorcycles (CN 8711) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in motorcycles, mopeds, and motorised cycles (CN 8711) over the period 2015–2025. The product scope covers all displacement classes of internal-combustion-engined two-wheelers as well as electric motorcycles and mopeds. Over this eleven-year window, the EU motorcycle market underwent a structural transformation: imports more than doubled in value, the electric sub-segment emerged as the single largest category by weight and unit count, China supplanted the United States as the leading import origin, and the EU's merchandise trade deficit in the product widened almost sevenfold. At the same time, EU domestic production surged, and exports — while growing more slowly — shifted toward higher-value, larger-displacement vehicles destined for a more diversified set of partners. The report is organised around three main dynamics that shaped this evolution.

1. A Widening Trade Deficit Fueled by the Electric Two-Wheeler Boom

The overall trade balance deteriorated sharply between 2015 and 2025

The EU entered the period with a modest motorcycle trade deficit of €419 million in 2015. By 2025, this had ballooned to €2.90 billion — a deterioration of 592%. Over the same span, imports rose from €2.38 billion to €5.53 billion (+131.8%), while exports grew from €1.96 billion to €2.62 billion (+33.5%). The asymmetry is even more visible in physical terms: import volumes in tonnes nearly doubled (+95.8%, from 164,707 t to 322,426 t), whereas export tonnage rose only 7.8% (from 57,810 t to 62,328 t). The full trajectory is summarised below.

Source: General Overview

Electric motorcycles and mopeds (CN 871160) became the primary driver of import growth

The sub-segment for electric two-wheelers (CN 871160) had no reported extra-EU trade in 2015–2016. By 2017, imports stood at 58,718 t and approximately 3.18 million pieces. By 2025, the weight had climbed to 121,933 t and the unit count to 5.31 million pieces — making electric vehicles by far the largest import category in both dimensions. Import value in this segment reached €1.64 billion in 2025, having peaked at €2.63 billion in 2022.

Crucially, the unit price (per piece) of imported electric two-wheelers has fallen substantially, from €245/piece in 2017 to €309/piece in 2025 after peaking at €490/piece in 2022. This decline is consistent with large-scale importation of low-cost electric bicycles, e-scooters, and small electric mopeds — products that are classified under CN 871160 but carry much lower price tags than conventional motorcycles.

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

The EU's net import reliance in fact declined, thanks to booming domestic production

Paradoxically, while the merchandise trade deficit in value terms widened, the EU's net import reliance — defined as net imports over apparent consumption — actually fell from 27.0% in 2015 to 15.1% in 2025 (with a low of 8.6% in 2023). This is explained by a surge in EU domestic production: output rose from 1.50 million units and €4.07 billion in 2015 to 3.63 million units and €10.23 billion in 2025 — increases of 141.5% and 151.0% respectively. Much of this production growth appears to have occurred in the electric and mid-displacement segments, partly by EU-based manufacturers and partly by Asian OEMs assembling or finishing vehicles in Europe.

Source: Production volumes

2. Shifting Geography: China's Dominance and the Decline of US Imports

China became the EU's largest motorcycle import partner, multiplying its share fivefold

Among import partners, the most striking development is the rise of China. Chinese exports of CN 8711 to the EU surged from €514 million in 2015 to €2.06 billion in 2025 — a 301% increase — making China by far the largest single supplier. This growth is almost certainly driven by the electric two-wheelers discussed above: China is the world's dominant producer of e-bikes, electric mopeds, and small electric motorcycles, and CN 871160 captures these products.

Japan remained the second-largest supplier (€779 million → €1.43 billion, +83.8%), anchored by established OEMs such as Honda, Yamaha, Suzuki, and Kawasaki shipping conventional ICE motorcycles. Thailand (+303%) and Vietnam (+321%) both grew rapidly, reflecting the relocation of production capacity by Japanese and other manufacturers to Southeast Asia.

Source: Top partners

US motorcycle exports to the EU collapsed, reflecting shifting production footprints

The United States was the EU's second-largest import source in 2015 at €429 million but fell to €138 million by 2025 (−67.7%). This likely reflects the reorientation of Harley-Davidson's production strategy: the company moved a significant portion of its manufacturing for European-bound motorcycles to Thailand after 2018 to avoid EU retaliatory tariffs on US-origin goods, and more recently pivoted some assembly to other Asian locations. The US share was absorbed by Thailand and, to a lesser extent, by other Asian origins.

Import concentration (HHI by value) rose from 1,997 in 2015 to 2,318 in 2025, indicating that imports became somewhat more concentrated geographically. By volume, concentration rose even more steeply (from 2,422 to 3,980), underscoring China's dominance in the high-volume, low-unit-price electric segment.

EU export destinations remained more diversified and geographically stable

On the export side, the United States and the United Kingdom continued to dominate, together absorbing €954 million in 2025 (36% of total exports). However, the fastest-growing destinations were Türkiye (+500%), Switzerland (+110%), and Norway (+99%). Export concentration by value fell from an HHI of 1,421 to 1,064, reflecting this broadening of the customer base. The main EU exporters in 2025 were Germany (€1.07 billion), Italy (€687 million), and — reflecting production by KTM — Austria (€256 million, though down from €433 million in 2015).

Source: Top partners

3. Premiumisation of Exports and Segment-Level Divergences

EU exports are concentrated in high-displacement, high-unit-price segments

A striking feature of the EU's motorcycle trade profile is the contrast between import and export price structures. In 2025, the average export price per unit (supplementary) for CN 871150 (>800 cc ICE motorcycles) was €12,466/piece, while the average import price for CN 871160 (electric) was just €309/piece. This 40:1 ratio illustrates that the EU is predominantly a net importer of high-volume, low-price two-wheelers (especially electric mopeds and e-bikes from Asia) and a net exporter of premium, large-displacement motorcycles to global markets.

Note: Export unit prices for 871120 and 871110 in 2025 show anomalous drops, likely reflecting supplementary quantity reporting revisions. Source: Product Segment Breakdown

The ≤50 cc segment is in structural decline, displaced by electric alternatives

CN 871110 (ICE mopeds ≤50 cc) was a meaningful import category in 2015 (24,166 t, €142 million, 263,623 units). By 2025, imports had fallen to 14,739 t and €112 million, with the number of units declining to 194,436. This contraction is consistent with the well-documented consumer shift from small petrol mopeds to electric alternatives, which are classified under 871160. The same trend is visible in exports: the EU exported 2,106 t of ≤50 cc mopeds in 2015 but only 595 t in 2025. The ≤50 cc ICE moped is being replaced by electric powertrains in both the domestic market and in export product mix.

Mid-displacement and large-displacement ICE imports grew, reflecting persistent demand for conventional motorcycles

While electric products surged, conventional ICE segments also expanded. Imports of CN 871120 (50–250 cc) grew from 37,119 t to 61,832 t (+67%), and CN 871140 (500–800 cc) more than doubled from 21,196 t to 48,599 t. The high-displacement segment CN 871150 (>800 cc) showed more modest growth in volume terms but remains the largest category by export value, driven by European marques such as BMW, Ducati, KTM, and Triumph.

On the export side, the >800 cc segment (CN 871150) remained the EU's flagship product, accounting for €1.25 billion in 2025 — nearly half of all motorcycle exports. The unit price per piece rose from €10,357 in 2015 to €12,466 in 2025, reflecting both genuine premiumisation and inflation. Italy, Germany, and Austria were the principal producing and exporting Member States for these high-value motorcycles, as confirmed by their specialisation indices: Italy (RSCA 0.26), Austria (RSCA 0.42), and Bulgaria (RSCA 0.62) showed the highest revealed comparative advantages in 2025.

Trade intensity remains moderate but export propensity is rising

The EU's trade intensity (extra-EU trade as a share of production) stood at 53.8% in 2025, essentially flat over the decade. However, export propensity (exports as a share of production) rose from 22.8% to 31.2%, indicating that EU manufacturers are increasingly orienting production toward third-country markets. This growth in export propensity occurred despite the challenging competitive environment posed by low-cost Asian electric vehicles, suggesting that the EU's comparative advantage remains firmly anchored in premium and mid-to-large-displacement ICE motorcycles — a niche where brand heritage, engineering, and regulatory compliance create meaningful barriers to entry.

Conclusion

The EU motorcycle market between 2015 and 2025 has been reshaped by two parallel forces: the electrification of urban two-wheelers and the globalisation of supply chains. Imports surged on the back of high-volume, low-cost electric mopeds and e-bikes from China, while the US share of EU imports shrank as manufacturers relocated production to Southeast Asia. The EU's trade deficit in CN 8711 widened to €2.9 billion, yet this masks a more nuanced reality: domestic production more than doubled in unit terms, net import reliance actually fell, and EU exports — concentrated in premium large-displacement motorcycles — continued to grow in value and to diversify geographically. The key risk ahead lies in the evolving competitive dynamics of the electric segment, where EU producers face mounting pressure from Asian imports and where further price compression could test the sustainability of current trade patterns. The volatility data also flags Türkiye and the United States as relatively volatile trade partners, warranting monitoring as geopolitical and tariff dynamics continue to evolve.