Market evolution: Large motorcycles (CN 871150) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of large-displacement motorcycles (CN 871150) — defined as motorcycles and mopeds with a reciprocating internal-combustion piston engine exceeding 800 cm³ — traded between the European Union and the rest of the world over the period 2015–2025. The period under review was shaped by several transformative forces: supply-chain relocations by major Japanese manufacturers toward Southeast Asia, the United Kingdom's departure from the EU single market, steady premiumisation of the product mix, and a brief but sharp COVID-19 disruption. Against this backdrop, the EU's large-motorcycle trade underwent a fundamental reorientation: the bloc shifted from a comfortable net-export position toward a near-balanced trade account, while both import and export unit prices rose substantially — signalling that fewer but more expensive vehicles are crossing the EU's external border in both directions.

1. From Net Exporter to Rough Parity: The Reversal of the EU Trade Balance

The most striking aggregate development over the decade is the erosion of the EU's historically positive trade balance in large motorcycles. After opening 2015 with a surplus of €203 million, the balance swung into deficit in several years and closed 2025 at −€15 million — a collapse of 107%. This reversal was not caused by an export collapse; rather, imports grew much faster than exports, and the two flows converged in value terms.

Export value grew modestly while volumes contracted

EU exports of CN 871150 rose from €1.12 billion in 2015 to €1.25 billion in 2025, an increase of 11.4% in value terms. Over the same span, however, the net mass of exported motorcycles fell by 12.4% (from 25,062 t to 21,962 t), and the number of vehicles exported declined by 7.4% (from 107,870 to 99,872 units). The explanation lies in rising unit values: the export price per tonne climbed 27.2% (to €56,690/t), and the export price per piece climbed 20.4% (to €12,466/unit). In other words, the EU shipped fewer, heavier, and more expensive motorcycles — consistent with a shift toward premium and large-displacement models produced by brands such as BMW, Ducati, KTM, and Triumph.

Import value surged on the back of higher prices and sustained volumes

EU imports grew from €914 million to €1.26 billion (+37.7%), a far steeper trajectory than exports. Net mass dipped marginally (−2.4%), but the supplementary unit count (number of vehicles) actually increased by 4.8% — from 156,256 to 163,811 units. Crucially, the import price per tonne rose 41.1% (to €30,917/t), and the import price per piece rose 30.7% (to €7,650/unit). Imports therefore became both more numerous and considerably more expensive per unit, reflecting both the general premiumisation trend and a shift in the origin mix toward higher-value suppliers.

The EU consistently runs a net-import deficit in vehicle count

Despite the positive (or near-zero) value balance, the EU has been a structural net importer of large motorcycles in unit terms throughout the period. In 2025 the EU imported roughly 164,000 vehicles while exporting about 100,000 — a unit deficit of approximately 64,000 motorcycles. The trade balance remained positive in value for most of the period only because the EU's exported motorcycles commanded substantially higher prices per piece (€12,466 vs. €7,650 in 2025).

2. The Great Supplier Reorientation: Asia Replaces North America and the United Kingdom

Behind the aggregate trade-balance shift lies a dramatic reconfiguration of the EU's import partner structure. The most consequential development was the explosive growth of Thailand and China as import sources, coupled with the steep decline of the United States and the post-Brexit erosion of the United Kingdom.

Thailand went from a negligible supplier to the EU's third-largest source

Thai exports of large motorcycles to the EU rose from a mere €268,000 in 2015 to €277.6 million in 2025 — an increase of over 103,000%. This is almost certainly the result of Japanese manufacturers (Honda, Yamaha, Kawasaki, Suzuki) progressively relocating production of mid-to-large-displacement models to their Thai plants. The shift was accelerated by the EU–Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (which entered into force in February 2019 and phased out tariffs on motorcycles), making it more attractive to manufacture in Thailand under preferential rules of origin and ship directly to the EU rather than export from Japan. The volatility analysis confirms this structural break: a price shock of abnormality 3.9 (67.4% shift) was detected for Thai imports around 2019 — precisely the year the FTA took effect — likely reflecting the transition from small, cheap units to higher-value large-displacement bikes.

China emerged rapidly as the fifth-largest import source

Chinese imports surged from under €1 million in 2015 to €90.7 million in 2025 (+11,341%). China's growth in this product category is consistent with the broader expansion of Chinese motorcycle and powersport manufacturers (such as CFMoto, Zontes, and others) that have entered the European large-displacement segment with competitively priced offerings. The high coefficient of variation (2.30) in Chinese import volatility reflects this rapid ramp-up from a very low base.

The United States lost more than two-thirds of its EU market

US exports of large motorcycles to the EU fell from €414 million to €133 million (−67.9%). This decline mirrors well-documented structural problems in US motorcycle manufacturing, including Harley-Davidson's strategic retreat from certain international markets, its closure of US production lines, and its shift of some manufacturing to Thailand and other Asian locations — which, ironically, is partly what feeds the Thai import surge noted above. The US went from being the EU's second-largest import partner in 2015 to fourth place in 2025.

The United Kingdom's exit from the EU single market disrupted trade in both directions

UK-sourced imports into the EU fell from €103 million to €53 million (−48.7%), while EU exports to the UK declined from €270 million to €178 million (−34.0%). The UK had been the EU's largest export destination for large motorcycles; it was overtaken by the United States by 2025. The decline in bilateral trade is consistent with the imposition of customs formalments, rules-of-origin requirements, and the end of frictionless trade following Brexit on 1 January 2021. The reporter-level data show that most of this decline was absorbed by major EU exporters such as Germany and Italy.

Japan remained the EU's largest single import partner and grew strongly

Japanese-sourced imports rose from €393 million to *€690 million* (+75.6%**), making Japan the undisputed top import supplier by value. Japan's growth is notable given that production was simultaneously being shifted to Thailand — it suggests that Japan continued to supply the EU with the highest-value, flagship models directly from its domestic factories while routing mid-range production through Thailand. Japan's import volatility was relatively low (coefficient of variation 0.22), indicating a stable and mature trade relationship.

The table below summarises the partner reorientation:

* Approximate; exact rank depends on intermediate-year dynamics.

3. Strategic Consolidation: The EU Industry's Sharpened Export Orientation and Internal Specialisation

Beyond partner shifts, the period saw a significant strengthening of the EU's strategic position in large-motorcycle trade — driven by a dramatic increase in export propensity and a diversification of both trade partners and internal production hubs.

Export propensity more than doubled

The EU's export propensity — the ratio of exports to domestic production — surged from 23.7% in 2015 to 49.7% in 2025, a rise of 109.6%. By 2025, nearly half of EU-produced large motorcycles by value were destined for export markets. This is the single most salient structural indicator in the dataset (salience score: 110). It points to an industry that has become significantly more outward-looking, likely driven by the need to amortise high R&D and regulatory-compliance costs (including Euro 5 emission standards) over a larger sales base and to capture growth in non-European markets.

Net import reliance fell sharply despite the trade-balance erosion

The net import reliance ratio — imports minus exports, divided by apparent consumption (production + imports − exports) — declined from 33.7% to 13.9% (−58.7%). In some intermediate years the ratio briefly turned negative (min: −0.6%), meaning the EU was a net exporter on a value-adjusted basis. The decline in reliance indicates that the EU's domestic production base has become more competitive and better able to serve both the home market and export demand.

EU production shifted from volume to value

According to production data, EU production of large motorcycles fell from approximately 703,000 units in 2015 to 600,000 units in 2025 (−14.7%), yet the production value rose from €3.06 billion to €5.00 billion (+63.6%). The implied average production value per unit thus nearly doubled — from roughly €4,350 to roughly €8,330 — mirroring the premiumisation trend visible in the trade data. EU manufacturers appear to be concentrating their output on higher-margin, higher-displacement models.

Germany consolidated its dominance of EU exports; Italy held strong

At the member-state level, Germany was by far the largest exporter, accounting for €789 million in 2025 (38.1% growth over the decade), driven by BMW Motorrad's large-displacement range. Italy was second at €335 million (+13.2%), supported by Ducati (Volkswagen group), Piaggio (Moto Guzzi, Aprilia), and MV Agusta. Together, Germany and Italy accounted for the majority of the specialisation in this product (RCA values of 1.95 and 2.08 respectively). By contrast, Austria (KTM) saw its export value collapse by 60.8% (from €119M to €46M), possibly reflecting production restructuring, the shift of certain model lines to other facilities, or supply-chain disruptions.

On the import side, Belgium and the Netherlands remained the largest EU entry points (€351M and €320M respectively in 2025), reflecting their role as major port-of-entry hubs for Asian-origin motorcycles arriving by sea. Spain saw the most dramatic import growth (+341%), rising from €30M to €131M, suggesting either growing domestic demand or the establishment of new distribution channels.

Trade concentration declined, signalling diversification

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import partners fell from 4,021 to 3,719 (−7.5%), while for export partners it fell more sharply from 1,582 to 1,070 (−32.4%). Although the import-side HHI remains above 2,500 — the conventional threshold for a "highly concentrated" market — the downward trend indicates that the EU is diversifying its supplier base away from the former US–Japan duopoly toward a broader set of Asian origins. The export-side HHI decline, meanwhile, reflects a broadening of EU export destinations beyond the traditional US–UK axis toward markets such as Mexico (+125.2%), Canada (+25.9%), and Australia.

Conclusion

Over the decade 2015–2025, the EU's trade in large-displacement motorcycles (CN 871150) underwent three concurrent transformations. First, the trade balance moved from a comfortable surplus of €203 million to a small deficit, driven by the faster growth of imports relative to exports. Second, the geography of supply was fundamentally reshaped: Thailand and China replaced the United States and the United Kingdom as the EU's fastest-growing import sources, with Thai imports alone rising from near-zero to €278 million — a shift closely linked to Japanese manufacturers' production relocations and the entry into force of the EU–Japan FTA. Third, the EU industry itself became more export-oriented and more premium-focused: export propensity doubled to nearly 50%, net import reliance halved to 14%, and domestic production value rose 64% even as unit output declined by 15%.

These dynamics suggest that the EU large-motorcycle market is entering a new equilibrium in which it imports a growing volume of mid-range vehicles from Asian factories while concentrating its own production on high-margin, flagship models destined for global markets. The structural risks are modest — import concentration has declined, supplier diversity has improved, and the EU's own industrial base has strengthened in value terms — but the growing dependence on Thai, Chinese, and Japanese supply chains warrants continued monitoring, particularly in light of evolving trade-policy frameworks and the ongoing electrification transition that may eventually redefine this product category.