Market evolution: Motorcycles (CN 871120) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of EU motorcycle imports and exports under customs code 871120 — covering motorcycles and mopeds with internal combustion engines of 50–250 cm³ — over the period 2015 to 2025. The analysis draws on trade flow data, partner breakdowns, concentration measures, and vulnerability indicators. Over this eleven-year window, the EU motorcycle market experienced a pronounced shift: a near-doubling of import value, a widening trade deficit, a geographic reorientation of sourcing toward Asia, and a simultaneous rise in export propensity that reflects deeper integration of EU manufacturers into global supply chains.

I. A Widening Deficit Fueled by Surging Asian Imports

EU imports nearly doubled in value while exports grew only modestly

Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of motorcycles in the 50–250 cm³ segment rose from €348.5 million to €684.2 million — an increase of 96.3%. Over the same period, exports grew by just 15.0%, from €242.5 million to €279.0 million. The resulting trade balance deteriorated sharply, moving from a deficit of €106.0 million in 2015 to €405.3 million in 2025 — a deterioration of 282.4%.

Import volumes grew substantially, driven by both more units and higher unit values

Import volumes in tonnes rose by 66.6%, from 37,119 tonnes in 2015 to 61,832 tonnes in 2025, while the number of imported vehicles (supplementary units) grew by 60.7%, from 310,693 to 499,223 units. The average import price per tonne also increased by 17.9%, reaching €11,066 in 2025. This combination of volume growth and price appreciation suggests that demand for imported motorcycles was driven not only by more consumers choosing imports but also by a shift toward somewhat higher-value products.

Export dynamics reveal a structural divergence between weight and unit count

EU export quantities in tonnes increased modestly from 10,411 to 12,036 tonnes (+15.6%), yet the supplementary unit count surged from 81,406 to 746,438 units (+816.9%). Simultaneously, the export price per unit collapsed by 87.5%, from €2,979 to €374. This stark divergence — more units exported but at dramatically lower prices and with barely any increase in tonnage — points to a large increase in exports of lightweight, low-unit-value vehicles, likely smaller-displacement mopeds or entry-level models, while the heavier, higher-value segment remained relatively stable in tonnage terms.

II. Geographic Reorientation: The Rise of Vietnam and the Post-Brexit UK Decline

China consolidated its position as the dominant import supplier, but Vietnam's growth was explosive

China remained the EU's largest source of motorcycle imports throughout the period, with its share rising from €140.8 million to €347.0 million (+146.5%). However, the most dramatic shift came from Vietnam, which grew from just €19.8 million in 2015 to €160.0 million in 2025 — a sevenfold increase of 707.6%. By 2025, Vietnam had become the EU's second-largest supplier, overtaking traditional sources such as Japan, Taiwan, and Thailand. Indonesia (+183.3%) and India (+100.2%) also recorded strong gains, while Japan (−21.2%), Taiwan (−72.0%), and Thailand (−29.4%) all saw their exports to the EU decline.

This reorientation reflects broader trends in global motorcycle manufacturing. The EU–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), which entered into force in August 2020, likely played a catalytic role in Vietnam's surge, while the competitive pressure from Chinese and Southeast Asian producers squeezed the traditional Japanese and Taiwanese suppliers.

EU exports to the United Kingdom collapsed after Brexit, while Turkey emerged as a key growth market

On the export side, the most striking development was the sharp decline in EU motorcycle exports to the United Kingdom — from €76.6 million in 2015 to €27.4 million in 2025, a fall of 64.2%. The UK had been the EU's largest non-EU export market in 2015; by 2025, it had fallen to fourth position. This decline coincides with the UK's departure from the EU single market and customs union, which introduced new trade frictions.

Conversely, Türkiye emerged as the EU's leading export destination, surging from €18.8 million to €118.7 million (+532.6%). Switzerland (+40.0%) also grew, while exports to the United States (−28.5%) and Australia (−61.9%) declined.

Italy and Spain became the EU's dominant import gateways while Austria's export role diminished

Among EU Member States, Italy's imports surged from €75.7 million to €232.0 million (+206.5%), making it the largest EU importer by 2025. Spain similarly rose from €69.2 million to €160.6 million (+132.0%). Greece recorded the most explosive growth at +276.3%. On the export side, Italy's outward shipments nearly doubled (+95.8% to €163.7 million), while Austria, once the EU's top exporter at €109.1 million, fell to €60.8 million (−44.2%). France's exports collapsed by 79.8%.

III. Market Concentration, Price Volatility, and Strategic Autonomy

Import and export markets both became more concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose from 2,255 to 3,273 (+45.1%), indicating a significant increase in the dominance of a few supplying countries — principally China and Vietnam. Export concentration also increased, from 1,632 to 2,216 (+35.8%), reflecting the growing importance of Türkiye as a destination. In both cases, the rising HHI signals reduced diversification, which increases vulnerability to supply or demand shocks from individual partners.

Price shocks were detected in key bilateral relationships

The volatility analysis reveals several notable price shock events. The most significant was an abnormal price shift in EU–UK exports in 2021, with an abnormality score of 9.4 and a 24.8% price shift — coinciding with the post-Brexit adjustment period. Vietnamese imports also experienced a notable price shock in 2022 (abnormality 5.4, +23.6% shift), potentially reflecting supply-chain disruptions or shifts in product mix as volumes surged. Among import partners, Taiwan exhibited the highest volatility (coefficient of variation 0.59), followed closely by Vietnam (0.57) and Korea (1.18), while China was the most stable supplier (CV 0.19).

Net import reliance declined as export propensity nearly doubled

Despite the growing trade deficit in absolute value, the EU's net import reliance as a share of apparent consumption fell from 33.7% to 13.9% (−58.7%). This seemingly paradoxical outcome is explained by the concurrent rise in export propensity — the share of EU production exported — which nearly doubled from 23.7% to 49.7%. In other words, EU manufacturers significantly expanded their export orientation over the decade. Trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) also rose from 56.3% to 69.7%, confirming a deeper integration of this sector into global markets.

Italy stands out as the EU's most specialised producer in this segment

The specialisation analysis for 2025 shows Italy with a revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.69 and an RCA of 5.48 — by far the highest in the EU. Italy accounts for 43.9% of EU production in this segment. Austria (RSCA 0.48) and France (RSCA 0.37) follow as the next most specialised producers. At the other end, Finland, Hungary, and Lithuania show negligible specialisation, consistent with their minimal production presence.

Conclusion

The EU motorcycle market for the 50–250 cm³ segment underwent a structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. The most defining trend was the near-doubling of imports — led by China's continued dominance and Vietnam's dramatic emergence as a major supplier — which widened the trade deficit to over €400 million. On the export side, geopolitical shifts reshaped destination markets: the UK's importance collapsed post-Brexit, while Türkiye rose to become the EU's primary non-EU export partner. Italian manufacturers consolidated their role as the EU's production and export powerhouse.

Paradoxically, while the nominal deficit grew, the EU's net import reliance fell, as EU producers dramatically increased their export orientation — with export propensity approaching 50% of production by 2025. This deeper integration into global markets brings both opportunities and vulnerabilities: the concentration of imports from a small number of Asian suppliers and the increased HHI scores suggest that supply-chain disruptions or trade-policy changes could have outsized effects. The price shocks detected in the EU–UK and EU–Vietnam corridors serve as reminders that this market remains exposed to sudden adjustments.