Market evolution: Trailers and semi-trailers (CN 8716) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of the European Union in product group 8716 — Trailers and semi-trailers; other vehicles, not mechanically propelled (excl. railway and tramway vehicles); parts thereof, n.e.s. — over the period 2015–2025. The heading covers a broad range of products, from caravan trailers and agricultural self-loading trailers to tanker trailers, general goods-transport trailers, manually propelled vehicles, and trailer parts (full product scope).

Over this eleven-year window, the EU's external trade in CN 8716 has undergone three fundamental shifts. First, import growth far outpaced export growth, progressively narrowing the EU's historically comfortable trade surplus. Second, geopolitical events — most notably the sanctions imposed on Russia and the strengthening of trade ties with Türkiye and several emerging economies — have dramatically reshaped the EU's trade partner landscape. Third, domestic production has pivoted from volume toward value, with the number of items produced roughly halving while production value more than doubled. The following three sections explore each of these dynamics in detail.

1. A rapidly growing import demand narrows the EU's trade surplus

The EU remains a net exporter, but the gap is closing

Throughout the 2015–2025 period, the EU has consistently maintained a positive trade balance in CN 8716 — that is, exports to non-EU countries have exceeded imports. However, this surplus has eroded substantially. The trade balance stood at EUR 1.72 billion in 2015 and declined to EUR 1.30 billion by 2025, a contraction of 24.2% (net import reliance). At its peak (likely around 2022–2023, the data's maximum), the surplus reached EUR 2.32 billion. The 2025 reading of EUR 1.30 billion is the lowest in the entire series.

Imports more than doubled while exports grew modestly

The primary driver of the narrowing surplus is the stark asymmetry in growth rates between imports and exports:

Source: General trade overview

Exports grew by 25.5% in value terms but only 2.6% in volume — meaning that almost the entirety of the export value increase came from higher unit prices rather than from shipping more goods. By contrast, imports surged by 110.5% in value, driven by a 69.2% volume expansion and a 24.4% price increase. In other words, the EU is importing substantially more trailers and trailer parts by both weight and value, while its export volumes have essentially stagnated.

Growing trade intensity points to deeper integration

The EU's trade intensity — the ratio of total external trade (exports + imports) to domestic production value — rose from 16.2% in 2015 to 25.3% in 2025, a 56.1% increase. Similarly, export propensity (exports as a share of production) increased from 12.6% to 17.1% (+36.4%). These rising ratios indicate that the EU's trailer industry has become more deeply intertwined with international markets over the decade — both as an exporter and, increasingly, as an import destination. While this signals competitive participation in global trade, the faster growth of import intensity also implies a rising exposure to external supply dynamics.

2. Geopolitical ruptures and the rise of emerging suppliers

Russia's collapse as an export market reshapes EU trade flows

Perhaps the single most dramatic change in the EU's CN 8716 trade over this period is the near-total disappearance of exports to the Russian Federation. In 2015, Russia was the EU's third-largest export destination with EUR 199 million in shipments. By 2025, exports to Russia had fallen to EUR 10,225 — effectively zero (top export partners). This collapse, already underway before 2022 due to earlier rounds of sanctions, reflects the full impact of EU restrictions on trade with Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. The coefficient of variation for EU exports to Russia stands at 0.78 — the highest among the major export partners — confirming the extreme instability of this trade relationship (volatility data).

Ukraine, Switzerland, and Central Asia absorb redirected exports

As Russian trade vanished, EU exporters redirected flows to alternative markets. Ukraine emerged as a significant growth market, with exports rising from EUR 54 million in 2015 to EUR 143 million in 2025 (+165.1%). The peak came in 2022–2023, when exports to Ukraine reached EUR 280 million, likely reflecting the country's acute infrastructure needs. Switzerland remained a steady, high-value partner, growing from EUR 259 million to EUR 373 million (+44.2%). Kazakhstan and other Central Asian markets also expanded meaningfully, with exports to Kazakhstan rising from EUR 24 million to EUR 56 million (+135.2%). The United Kingdom, the EU's largest single export destination, saw its share grow from EUR 671 million to EUR 852 million (+26.9%), confirming the continued importance of this post-Brexit but geographically proximate market.

Türkiye and India emerge as major new import sources

On the import side, the most striking development is the surge of shipments from Türkiye and India. Imports from Türkiye grew from EUR 129 million in 2015 to EUR 474 million in 2025 — an increase of 268.3% (top import partners). Imports from India grew even more dramatically, from EUR 7 million to EUR 66 million (+885.8%). Serbia (+204.4%, from EUR 35 million to EUR 105 million) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (+155.9%, from EUR 13 million to EUR 34 million) also expanded their presence. These developments suggest that cost-competitive producers in neighbouring and emerging economies have increasingly penetrated the EU market, capitalising on trade agreements (e.g., the EU-Turkey Customs Union, Stabilisation and Association Agreements with Western Balkan countries) and price advantages.

China remains the leading import supplier by a wide margin

China was the EU's largest import source throughout the period, with its share rising from EUR 473 million to EUR 859 million (+81.7%). Despite strong growth from Türkiye, China's absolute lead remains substantial — it accounts for roughly 40% of total EU imports in this product group in 2025. Import concentration (HHI by value) for imports declined from 2,846 in 2015 to 2,444 in 2025 (-14.1%), indicating that while China retained its dominance, the broader import base has become somewhat more diversified (concentration analysis).

EU import profiles differ widely across member states

Among EU member states, Germany is by far the largest importer (EUR 536 million in 2025, +93.1% vs. 2015), followed by the Netherlands (EUR 311 million, +162.2%) and France (EUR 265 million, +130.3%). Poland stands out with the fastest import growth among large economies at +235.3%, rising from EUR 38 million to EUR 128 million (EU reporter breakdown). This pattern is consistent with Poland's rapid logistics-sector expansion and its role as a growing distribution hub for Central and Eastern Europe.

3. From volume to value: EU production undergoes structural upgrading

Production volumes halved while production value doubled

One of the most striking features of the EU's CN 8716 industry is the divergence between production volumes and production values. The number of items produced fell from 17.2 million units in 2015 to just 8.3 million units in 2025 — a decline of 51.9%. Over the same period, production value rose from EUR 8.8 billion to EUR 18.1 billion, an increase of 106.4% (production volumes). This implies that the average value per item produced more than tripled, suggesting a structural shift toward higher-value, more specialised products — or, alternatively, that significant price inflation in raw materials and manufacturing costs has been passed through to final product values. Most likely, both factors are at play.

Parts and goods-transport trailers dominate the product mix

Breaking down the trade flows by sub-segment reveals that two product categories dominate both imports and exports:

Source: Product segment breakdown

The EU runs its largest trade surplus in goods transport trailers (871639, +EUR 1.0 billion) and parts (871690, +EUR 251 million). However, it has developed a notable deficit in hand-propelled and other non-mechanised vehicles (871680), where imports of EUR 477 million exceeded exports of EUR 342 million. This category has seen the fastest import growth of any sub-segment — import values more than doubled from EUR 216 million to EUR 477 million (+121%) — likely reflecting strong demand for warehouse trolleys, luggage carts, and similar items, combined with competitive sourcing from Asia.

Hand-propelled vehicles emerge as the fastest-growing import category

Within the 871680 sub-segment specifically, imports surged from EUR 216 million in 2015 to a peak of EUR 497 million in 2022 before settling at EUR 477 million in 2025. Import volumes rose from 70,851 tonnes to 146,757 tonnes over the same period, while unit prices increased from EUR 3,053/t to EUR 3,252/t. This suggests genuine demand growth rather than purely price-driven dynamics. On the export side, 871680 also performed well, with export values rising from EUR 210 million to EUR 342 million (+63%), though driven almost entirely by price increases (export volumes actually fell slightly). The combination of rapidly rising imports and moderately growing exports converted the EU from a net exporter in this sub-segment to a net importer — a microcosm of the broader trend observed at the 4-digit level.

Germany anchors EU production but faces emerging challengers

Germany remains the EU's dominant producer and exporter in CN 8716, accounting for EUR 1.20 billion in exports in 2025 (down from EUR 1.34 billion in 2015, a decline of 10.1%). Its revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of 1.85 confirms a strong specialisation in this product group (specialisation data). However, several smaller EU members have gained ground. Poland's exports more than doubled from EUR 126 million to EUR 280 million (+122.1%), and the Netherlands' exports grew from EUR 185 million to EUR 331 million (+79.5%). Among the most specialised producers by RCA, Luxembourg (6.78), Lithuania (2.56), and Estonia (2.00) stand out — though their absolute export shares remain small. The least specialised members, including Cyprus (RCA 0.005) and Malta (RCA 0.013), have virtually no presence in this product group.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in trailers, semi-trailers, and related non-mechanised vehicles (CN 8716) over 2015–2025 tells a story of deepening internationalisation, geopolitical disruption, and industrial transformation. The EU's trade surplus, while still positive at EUR 1.30 billion, has narrowed by 24.2% as imports more than doubled in value — driven by surging inflows from China, Türkiye, and India. The disappearance of exports to Russia following sanctions represents the single largest structural break in the data, redirecting EU export flows toward Ukraine, Switzerland, and Central Asian markets.

At the same time, EU domestic production has undergone a profound value-shift: the number of items produced fell by half, while production value doubled, pointing to an industry moving up the value chain or passing through higher costs. The growing import penetration ratio and rising trade intensity suggest that the EU's trailer industry is becoming more globally integrated — but also more exposed to competitive and geopolitical risks. The emergence of hand-propelled vehicles as a fast-growing net import category, and the rapid expansion of Turkish and Indian suppliers, are trends that merit close monitoring in the years ahead.