Market evolution: Trailer parts (CN 871690) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in trailer parts under Combined Nomenclature code 871690 — covering chassis, bodies, axles, and other parts of trailers, semi-trailers, and non-mechanically-propelled vehicles — over the period 2015 to 2025. The EU remains a net exporter of these goods throughout the period, yet the data reveals a pronounced structural shift: imports have grown far more rapidly than exports, the trade surplus has narrowed significantly, and the internal geography of EU production has been reshaped. Three overarching dynamics emerge — a convergence of the import–export gap driven by contrasting volume and price trends, a geopolitical realignment of trade partners triggered by conflict and new sourcing strategies, and a deep transformation of the EU's domestic production base toward fewer, higher-value items. The overview dashboard provides the full dataset underlying these observations.

1. A Narrowing Surplus: Diverging Volume and Price Trajectories

The most striking macro-level trend over 2015–2025 is the progressive narrowing of the EU's trade surplus in trailer parts. While the EU remained a net exporter throughout, the balance shrank from €393 million in 2015 to just €251 million in 2025 — a decline of 36.1%. This convergence is the product of two very different dynamics on the export and import sides.

1.1 Export value rose despite falling volumes, signalling a move upmarket

EU exports of trailer parts grew in value from €925 million (2015) to €1,097 million (2025), an increase of 18.5% (trade overview). However, export volumes actually declined over the same period, falling from 228,428 tonnes to 209,937 tonnes (−8.1%). The entire growth in export value was therefore driven by rising unit prices, which climbed from €4,051/t to €5,224/t (+29.0%). The peak export year was likely 2022, when total export value reached €1,383 million — the maximum recorded over the period — reflecting a post-COVID demand surge combined with elevated prices.

1.2 Imports surged in both volume and value, driven by lower-cost sourcing

Import growth was substantially more aggressive. The value of EU imports rose from €532 million to €846 million (+58.8%), while volumes climbed from 226,395 tonnes to 330,328 tonnes (+45.9%). Unlike exports, where price increases accounted for all the value growth, import expansion was overwhelmingly volume-driven — the average import price rose only modestly, from €2,352/t to €2,560/t (+8.9%). This indicates that the EU increasingly sourced trailer parts from lower-cost suppliers abroad, particularly from Asia and the Western Balkans. Import prices peaked at €2,940/t around 2022 (coinciding with global supply-chain disruptions and energy cost spikes) before retreating.

1.3 The EU's net exporter status is eroding but not yet reversed

The net import reliance indicator remained negative throughout (confirming net exporter status), but moved from −9.8% in 2015 to −4.9% in 2025 — a 49.9% reduction in magnitude (net import reliance). At its widest, the net exporter position reached −15.9% (likely 2018–2019). Meanwhile, trade intensity rose from 22.0% to 30.8%, and export propensity increased from 16.3% to 20.1%. In other words, the EU trailer-parts sector has become more deeply integrated into global trade — exporting a larger share of output while also importing a growing share of domestic consumption.

2. Geopolitical Realignment and the Diversification of Trade Partners

The decade 2015–2025 saw a dramatic reshuffling of the EU's trade relationships in trailer parts, driven by geopolitical events (notably the war in Ukraine and resulting sanctions on Russia), the post-Brexit adjustment with the United Kingdom, and the rise of new low-cost suppliers in Asia and the Western Balkans.

2.1 Russia's collapse as an export destination is the single largest structural break

The most dramatic change in EU export geography was the near-total disappearance of the Russian Federation as a customer. EU exports to Russia fell from €70 million in 2015 to just €10,205 in 2025 — a decline of effectively 100% (top partners). The coefficient of variation for EU exports to Russia stands at 0.72, reflecting extreme volatility across the period. At its peak (likely around 2018–2019), Russian demand absorbed close to €248 million in EU trailer-part exports. The sanctions regime imposed following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine effectively severed this trade relationship, removing one of the EU's formerly largest export markets.

2.2 Türkiye has emerged as the EU's most dynamic bilateral partner

Türkiye stands out as the partner with the broadest growth across both flows. EU imports from Türkiye more than doubled, rising from €54 million to €118 million (+117.8%), while EU exports to Türkiye grew from €88 million to €146 million (+66.0%). Türkiye's share of EU import supply has grown significantly, likely reflecting the country's role as a near-shoring alternative for trailer-part manufacturing and its customs-union alignment with the EU for industrial goods. The bilateral relationship is intensifying in both directions, making Türkiye a central node in the EU trailer-parts supply chain.

2.3 Asian and Western Balkan suppliers have gained ground rapidly

Beyond Türkiye, several other partners saw exceptional import growth:

India's near-ninefold increase is the most striking percentage-wise, rising from a marginal supplier to a €64 million source. The Western Balkan countries (Serbia, Bosnia & Herzegovina) also expanded rapidly, consistent with the EU's strategy of integrating candidate and potential-candidate countries into its industrial supply chains.

On the export side, established non-European markets grew strongly — the United States (+85.5%), Japan (+59.7%), and Australia (+46.1%) — suggesting that EU exporters redirected capacity formerly serving Russia toward distant, higher-price markets.

2.4 Import concentration decreased while export concentration edged up

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports fell from 3,343 to 3,002 (−10.2%), indicating moderate diversification away from a small number of dominant suppliers. China remains the largest single import source (€431 million, ~51% of total imports in 2025), but the combined market share of alternative suppliers has grown. Conversely, the export HHI rose from 1,122 to 1,332 (+18.7%), reflecting a mild concentration of exports toward fewer destinations — partly because the loss of Russia pushed EU exporters to focus more heavily on the United Kingdom (€334 million) and Türkiye (€146 million). The United Kingdom alone accounts for roughly 30% of EU trailer-part exports.

3. A Sector Undergoing Internal Restructuring: Fewer Items, Higher Value

Behind the aggregate trade figures lies a profound transformation of the EU's domestic trailer-parts industry. EU production data reveals a striking paradox: the number of items produced fell by 46.1% (from 2,266,517 to 1,220,805 pieces), while the total value of production rose by 74.9% (from €2,911 million to €5,091 million) (production volumes). This implies a near-tripling of the average unit value of EU-produced trailer parts, pointing to a decisive shift toward higher-complexity, higher-margin products.

3.1 Germany remains the largest producer but is losing share to Central Europe

Germany was the EU's dominant exporter of trailer parts throughout the period, but its export value declined from €572 million to €446 million (−22.0%) (top reporters). Meanwhile, two Central European members recorded explosive growth:

Hungary and Poland together grew from €58 million to €228 million in exports, more than compensating for Germany's decline. Hungary is now the most specialised EU member state in trailer parts (RSCA of 0.47, RCA of 2.80), followed by Lithuania and Latvia. This eastward shift likely reflects cost advantages, proximity to growing markets in Southeast Europe and Türkiye, and investment by multinational trailer manufacturers in Central European facilities.

3.2 The product mix is tilting away from axles and toward chassis and bodies

A detailed look at the four sub-categories of CN 871690 reveals divergent trajectories, both in trade and in their implications for the industry's value proposition.

Imports by sub-product (2015 → 2025):

Chassis imports saw the most dramatic price escalation (+102.8%), while body imports nearly doubled in volume. On the export side, the picture is more nuanced:

Exports by sub-product (2015 → 2025):

Axle exports collapsed in volume (−43.3%) and value (−30.7%), representing a major structural loss — likely reflecting competition from lower-cost Asian producers and a possible relocation of axle manufacturing outside the EU. In contrast, chassis exports nearly doubled in both volume and value, and body exports also grew substantially. The EU appears to be consolidating its competitive position in higher-complexity structural components (chassis, bodies) while ceding ground in more commoditised parts (axles).

3.3 Volatility varies sharply by partner and flow, signalling supply-chain risks

The volatility analysis reveals that some trade corridors are far more stable than others. EU imports from China — the largest supplier — have a coefficient of variation of just 0.12, indicating a relatively stable sourcing relationship. By contrast, imports from the United States (CV 0.90), Vietnam (CV 0.76), and Ukraine (CV 0.72) show extreme volatility, suggesting episodic or opportunistic sourcing rather than established supply chains. On the export side, the United Kingdom (CV 0.13) and Japan (CV 0.13) are the most stable destinations, while exports to the United Arab Emirates (CV 0.61) and China (CV 0.38) are considerably more erratic. One notable supply shock was detected in EU export prices to Australia around 2019, with an abnormality score of 8.6 and a price shift of +9.6%.

Conclusion

The EU trailer-parts market (CN 871690) has undergone a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. The EU remains a net exporter, but its surplus has narrowed by 36% as imports — driven predominantly by volume growth from lower-cost suppliers in China, India, Türkiye, and the Western Balkans — have expanded much faster than exports. EU exports, meanwhile, have shifted from volume-driven to price-driven growth, reflecting a domestic industry that is producing fewer items but at substantially higher unit values.

Geopolitical upheaval has redrawn the trade map: the loss of the Russian market (−100%) is the single largest structural break, while the rise of Türkiye as a bilateral partner and the emergence of India and the Western Balkans as import sources signal a lasting reorientation. Within the EU, production is migrating eastward from Germany to Hungary and Poland, and the product mix is shifting from commoditised axles toward higher-value chassis and bodies. These trends collectively point to an industry that is becoming more specialised, more price-competitive on the export side, and more dependent on external supply for volume — a combination that carries both opportunities for value capture and vulnerabilities in supply-chain resilience.