Market evolution: Cargo trailers (CN 871639) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in cargo trailers and semi-trailers (Combined Nomenclature code 871639) over the 2015–2025 period. This product category covers trailers and semi-trailers for the transport of goods not designed for running on rails, excluding agricultural self-loading/unloading trailers and tanker trailers. It is a residual heading within CN 8716 that bundles four subcategories: new goods transport trailers (87163930/87163950), used goods transport trailers (87163980), and trailers for highly radioactive materials (87163910).

The EU has remained a consistent net exporter of cargo trailers throughout the decade, with the trade balance standing at €905 million in 2015 and rising to €1.007 billion by 2025. However, beneath this headline stability, the period has been marked by significant structural shifts: a dramatic acceleration in imports, the near-total collapse of exports to Russia following geopolitical sanctions, the rise of Türkiye as the dominant import source, and a marked intensification of the EU's integration into global trailer markets. The analysis below is organized around three principal dynamics that shaped this market over the decade.

1. The Import Surge: Rapid Growth in Inbound Trade Amidst Sustained Export Dominance

EU exports grew steadily in value but showed limited volume expansion

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU exports of cargo trailers rose from €1.027 billion to €1.406 billion, an increase of 36.9%. Export volume in tonnes grew by 18.1%, from 400,648 t to 473,188 t, while the number of exported units actually declined marginally by 2.7% (from 115,239 to 112,126 pieces). This divergence — rising value with stagnant or declining unit counts — points to an increase in the average price per exported trailer. Indeed, the export unit value rose from €2,563/t to €2,971/t (+15.9%), and the price per piece increased more sharply, from €8,911 to €12,538 (+40.7%). This indicates that the EU is exporting higher-value, likely heavier and better-equipped trailers over time.

Imports grew far more sharply, albeit from a lower base

The most striking trend of the decade is the dramatic acceleration of EU imports of cargo trailers. Import value surged from €122 million in 2015 to €399 million in 2025, an increase of 228.2%. Import volume nearly doubled (+79.0%), and the number of imported units more than doubled, rising from 85,394 to 205,630 pieces (+140.8%). Import unit values also climbed significantly: the price per tonne rose from €2,270 to €4,162 (+83.3%), while the per-piece price increased from €1,424 to €1,942 (+36.4%).

The trade balance remained positive but the net reliance margin widened

Despite the import surge, the EU maintained a positive trade balance throughout the period, ranging from a minimum of €833 million (2020) to a maximum of €1.569 billion (2022). The balance in 2025 stood at €1.007 billion, up 11.2% from 2015. The net import reliance remained negative throughout (indicating net exports), moving from −8.6% to −11.5%. However, the net import reliance coefficient, while improving on the export side, masks a tripling of gross import values relative to the start of the period.

EU production expanded substantially, underpinning export capacity

EU production of cargo trailers grew from 594,376 units in 2015 to 931,212 units in 2025 (+56.7%), and the production value nearly doubled from €4.71 billion to €9.18 billion (+94.7%). This far outpaced the growth in extra-EU exports, suggesting that a growing share of EU production is serving intra-EU or domestic demand, or that the product mix has shifted toward higher-value segments.

2. Shifting Partners: Sanctions, Nearshoring, and the Rise of Türkiye

The collapse of the Russian market reshaped EU export geography

The single most dramatic structural shift in EU export partners was the near-total disappearance of the Russian Federation as a destination. In 2015, Russia was the EU's second-largest export market at €90.8 million, and at its peak (around 2018–2019) exports reached approximately €357 million. By 2025, exports to Russia had fallen to just €14,073 — effectively zero. This decline is directly attributable to the sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which restricted the export of vehicles and transport equipment. The export volume coefficient of variation for Russia stood at 0.713, the highest among major export partners, reflecting the sharp swing from boom to bust.

Ukraine and Kazakhstan partially absorbed the redirected export flows

In parallel, exports to Ukraine grew from €32.0 million in 2015 to €84.8 million in 2025 (+165.2%), peaking at €209 million in 2022 — the year of the full-scale invasion — likely reflecting emergency and humanitarian equipment shipments. Exports to Kazakhstan similarly surged from €15.4 million to €45.2 million (+193.5%), with a peak of €156 million, suggesting a role as an intermediary or alternative route to Central Asian markets previously served via Russia.

Türkiye became the dominant import source, redefining the EU's import profile

On the import side, the most consequential development was the meteoric rise of Türkiye as the EU's primary source of cargo trailers. Imports from Türkiye grew from €51.9 million in 2015 to €239.9 million in 2025 (+362%), reaching a peak of €343.8 million in 2023. This made Türkiye responsible for roughly 60% of total EU imports by value in 2025. The coefficient of variation for Turkish imports (0.628) was the highest among major import partners, indicating considerable volatility — likely linked to exchange-rate fluctuations and the rapid pace of market share gains. The concentration of imports reflected this: the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value rose from 2,744 to 4,103 (+49.5%), while the import volume HHI surged from 1,627 to 3,562 (+118.9%), indicating growing supplier concentration.

Other import partners grew but remain secondary

The United Kingdom was the second-largest import source, rising from €33.3 million to €77.6 million (+132.8%), a pattern consistent with the UK's post-Brexit status as a third country. Imports from the United States grew the fastest in proportional terms, from €2.2 million to €18.7 million (+745.3%). Imports from China also increased meaningfully, from €4.4 million to €12.8 million (+188.7%), though China's share remained modest. Bosnia and Herzegovina (+178.4%) and Norway (+87.3%) also registered significant growth.

Export market concentration remained low, import concentration rose

The HHI for export value remained relatively stable at around 892–921, indicating a diversified export base spread across multiple partners. In contrast, the import HHI's rise to over 4,000 signals a market that has become substantially more concentrated on Türkiye. This asymmetry has implications for supply-chain resilience: while EU exports face no single-point-of-failure risk, the growing reliance on Turkish supply could create vulnerability if disrupted.

3. Internal Restructuring: Specialisation, Subcategory Dynamics, and Trade Intensification

Germany anchors EU production and exports, while newer Member States gain ground

The specialisation data for 2025 reveals a clear hierarchy within the EU. Germany held the largest absolute share of both exports (€485 million, roughly 34% of EU total) and production (53.9% of production value), with a revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.436. Lithuania (RSCA 0.458) and Luxembourg (RSCA 0.879) were the most specialised producers, though from very small absolute bases. Finland (RSCA 0.312) and Estonia (RSCA 0.275) also showed meaningful specialisation.

At the other end of the spectrum, Ireland (RSCA −0.972), Greece (−0.937), Slovakia (−0.929), and Bulgaria (−0.877) exhibited strong negative specialisation, meaning they are heavily reliant on imports relative to their own production capacity.

EU Member State import patterns shifted decisively toward higher volumes

Among EU Member States, the import growth was widespread. Italy's imports surged by 786.7% (from €4.5 million to €39.7 million), Poland's by 811.4% (from €2.8 million to €25.5 million), and France's by 342.7%. Germany remained the largest importer at €134.1 million in 2025. On the export side, Germany's position was essentially flat (+0.5%), while Poland nearly doubled its exports (+94.6%) and the Netherlands grew by 43.4%, suggesting a gradual redistribution of EU export capacity.

The product mix within CN 871639 reveals distinct trade patterns for new, used, and specialised trailers

The subcategory breakdown reveals that the EU's trade structure differs markedly by subcategory:

• 87163930 (New goods trailers, n.e.s.) was the largest import and export category by value. Import value grew from €72.2 million to €208.7 million, while export value rose from €584.8 million to €786.2 million. The per-tonne import price climbed sharply from €3,613 to €4,514, suggesting the EU is importing increasingly expensive new trailers.

• 87163950 (New trailers for goods transport, excl. agricultural/tanker/radioactive) saw the most volatile import trajectory: volume surged from 14,229 t to a peak of 99,574 t in 2022 before settling at 28,437 t in 2025. Import value peaked at €194.2 million in 2022 and ended at €135.6 million. This category exhibited the highest price volatility, with the per-tonne price swinging between €1,910 and €6,116.

• 87163980 (Used goods trailers) was the largest export subcategory by volume (343,346 t in 2025) but carried the lowest unit values. Export value for used trailers grew from €246.1 million to €373.6 million, while the per-piece price fluctuated between €4,240 and €7,651.

• 87163910 (Highly radioactive materials trailers) remained negligible in volume (under 500 t and fewer than 1,000 units per year) but carried the highest per-unit prices, reflecting the specialised nature of this niche.

Trade intensity and export propensity both surged, signalling deeper global integration

The trade intensity of the EU trailer sector — the ratio of extra-EU trade to production — nearly doubled from 11.7% to 21.6% (+85.4%). The export propensity (exports as a share of production) rose from 9.9% to 16.6% (+67.8%). This intensification indicates that the EU trailer industry has become significantly more export-oriented over the decade, even as it simultaneously faces growing import competition. The salience analysis identifies trade intensity as the more pronounced dynamic (score: 113.8 vs. 101.2 for export propensity).

Conclusion

The EU cargo trailer market (CN 871639) has undergone substantial structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. While the EU has maintained its position as a net exporter throughout — with the trade balance remaining above €800 million in every year — the decade has been characterised by three interconnected dynamics: a 228% surge in imports driven primarily by Türkiye, the geopolitical shock of losing the Russian export market, and a deepening integration of the EU trailer industry into global trade flows.

The rise of Türkiye as the dominant import source, accounting for approximately 60% of imports by value in 2025, has increased import concentration (HHI rising from 2,744 to 4,103) and created a new dependency that warrants monitoring. On the export side, the near-complete loss of the Russian market — from €357 million at peak to virtually zero — has been partially offset by growth in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and other markets, but the net effect has been a significant redirection of EU export flows.

At the Member State level, Germany remains the anchor of both production and exports, but the growth dynamic has shifted: Poland, the Netherlands, and the Baltic states have expanded their export profiles, while Italy, France, and Poland have seen the fastest import growth. Product-level analysis shows that the EU's import surge is concentrated in new trailers, while used trailers continue to dominate export volumes — a pattern consistent with the EU as a producer of new equipment and a redeployer of used fleet assets.

Looking at the broader picture, the near-doubling of trade intensity (from 11.7% to 21.6% of production) signals that the EU trailer industry can no longer be understood as a primarily domestic market. Its growing exposure to both import competition and export opportunities makes it increasingly sensitive to external shocks — whether geopolitical, exchange-rate-driven, or supply-chain-related.