Market evolution: Cargo trailers (CN 87163930) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade performance of the European Union in new cargo trailers (Combined Nomenclature code 87163930) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers trailers and semi-trailers for the transport of goods, excluding self-loading agricultural trailers, tanker trailers, and caravans. The EU has consistently been a net exporter in this segment, but the decade saw major structural shifts: trade volumes and values roughly doubled, the partner landscape was reshaped by geopolitical events, and the EU's integration into global trailer markets deepened considerably.

1. A Decade of Expanding Trade Volumes and Deepening Global Integration

The period 2015–2025 was characterised by a marked expansion of the EU's external trade in cargo trailers on both the import and export sides, accompanied by a sharp rise in trade openness.

Exports grew in value but volumes plateaued

EU exports of new cargo trailers rose from €584.8 million (2015) to €786.2 million (2025), a cumulative increase of +34.4% in value. However, the mass exported declined slightly from 104,317 tonnes to 100,662 tonnes (–3.5%). By contrast, the number of items exported surged from 13,433 to 23,201 pieces (+72.7%). This divergence points to a significant shift in the product mix: the EU exported far more individual trailers, but each unit was on average lighter and cheaper.

Imports grew even faster, nearly tripling in value

EU imports expanded from €72.2 million to €208.7 million (+189.2%), while imported tonnage rose from 19,973 to 46,237 (+131.5%) and the number of items from 5,814 to 13,317 (+129.1%). Import unit values also rose, but more moderately than on the export side: €/t went from €3,613 to €4,514 (+24.9%). The EU thus became a significantly larger buyer of non-EU trailers, though it retained a comfortable trade surplus — rising from €512.6 million in 2015 to €577.5 million in 2025 (+12.7%).

Trade intensity and export propensity both nearly doubled

The EU's trade intensity (total extra-EU trade as a share of EU production) rose from 11.7% to 21.6% (+85.4%), while export propensity (exports as a share of production) climbed from 9.9% to 16.6% (+67.8%). Domestic production itself expanded strongly — from 594,376 to 931,212 units (+56.7%) and from €4.7 billion to €9.2 billion in value (+94.7%) — yet the external sector grew even faster, indicating that the EU trailer industry became considerably more export-oriented over the decade.

2. Geopolitical Upheavals Redrew the EU's Trade Partner Map

The most striking feature of the period is how profoundly geopolitical events restructured the EU's export and import partner portfolios, with sanctions, conflict, and trade-policy shifts leaving clear statistical footprints.

Russia's collapse and the rise of Belarus and Ukraine

EU exports to Russia collapsed from a peak of €291.7 million to effectively zero by 2025 (–100%), a direct consequence of EU sanctions imposed after February 2022. Meanwhile, exports to Belarus surged from €9.3 million to €119.2 million (+1,188%), peaking at €153.5 million. Exports to Ukraine climbed from €8.0 million to €39.4 million (+390%), peaking at €111.3 million — likely driven by wartime logistics and reconstruction needs.

These shifts also increased export volatility: Belarus (CV 0.83), Russia (CV 0.72), and Türkiye (CV 0.72) exhibited the highest year-to-year variability among major partners. The 2022–2023 period also produced notable price shocks — most prominently for Saudi Arabia (abnormality score 553.9, +112% unit-value shift in 2022) and Ukraine (abnormality 547.3, +32.6% in 2022) — consistent with supply-chain disruptions and wartime logistics premiums.

Türkiye's dominance of EU imports consolidated further

On the import side, Türkiye grew from €51.0 million (70.7% of imports) to €183.7 million (88.0% of imports), a gain of +260.5%. No other supplier came close: the United Kingdom, in second place, contributed only €12.7 million in 2025. This concentration is reflected in a rising import HHI, which climbed from 5,221 to 7,813 (+49.6%) — indicating that import sourcing became significantly less diversified. The EU's growing reliance on Turkish-manufactured cargo trailers mirrors broader trends in EU–Türkiye goods trade, where cost-competitive Turkish manufacturing has gained market share across multiple transport-equipment categories.

Germany anchors both EU production and intra-EU redistribution

Germany is by far the largest EU exporter (€292.8 million in 2025, 37.2% of extra-EU exports) and the largest EU importer (€103.2 million, 49.4% of extra-EU imports). Its RCA of 2.92 confirms a strong comparative advantage. Notably, several other Member States saw explosive import growth — Spain (+5,512%), France (+530%), Italy (+697%) — suggesting that Türkiye's competitive offerings penetrated multiple EU national markets over the decade, not just Germany.

3. Rising Unit Values Reflect Upgrading, Inflation, and a Changing Product Mix

Unit-price dynamics over the period reveal a complex interplay of product upgrading, input-cost inflation, and compositional shifts between heavier commercial trailers and lighter utility units.

Export unit values diverge between per-tonne and per-piece measures

The average export price per tonne rose from €5,606 to €7,810 (+39.3%), while the price per piece fell from €43,534 to €33,887 (–22.2%). This is only possible if the average trailer exported became substantially lighter: the data confirms this, with mass per unit falling from roughly 7.8 tonnes (2015) to 4.3 tonnes (2025). The EU thus appears to have shifted its export basket toward a greater number of lighter, lower-value-per-unit trailers — possibly flatbed or general-purpose models — while heavier, specialised equipment became a smaller share of export volumes. The per-tonne price increase itself likely reflects both general steel and component cost inflation and some upgrading within weight classes.

Import unit values rose more moderately

Import unit prices per tonne increased from €3,613 to €4,514 (+24.9%), remaining well below the EU export price — a gap that widened over the period. The per-piece import price rose from €12,410 to €15,672 (+26.3%). The widening price gap between EU exports and imports (€7,810 vs. €4,514 per tonne in 2025) suggests that the EU exported higher-specification trailers to premium markets (UK, Norway, Switzerland) while importing more cost-efficient, standard-grade units from Türkiye and other suppliers.

EU production value nearly doubled, confirming an industry-wide upturn

Domestic production value rose from €4.7 billion to €9.2 billion (+94.7%) while unit output grew from 594,376 to 931,212 pieces (+56.7%). The faster growth in value than in units implies an average production value per unit that rose from roughly €7,930 to €9,858 (+24.3%), broadly consistent with the general inflation in raw materials and manufacturing costs observed across the EU transport-equipment sector during this period.

Conclusion

Over the decade 2015–2025, the EU's trade in new cargo trailers was shaped by three converging forces: structural market expansion, geopolitical disruption, and compositional evolution. Total trade volumes roughly doubled, with the EU remaining a consistent net exporter (trade surplus of €577.5 million in 2025) and its trailer industry becoming markedly more export-oriented (trade intensity rising from 11.7% to 21.6%).

The most consequential dynamic was geopolitical. The near-total loss of the Russian export market — once worth up to €291.7 million — was partially offset by surging flows to Belarus and Ukraine, though these markets carry significant political and volatility risks. On the import side, Türkiye's rise to an 88% share of non-EU imports concentrated sourcing and pushed the import HHI close to 8,000 — a level that warrants attention from a supply-diversification perspective. The EU's net import reliance remained firmly negative (–11.5% in 2025), confirming the bloc's structural self-sufficiency in this product category, even as import penetration grew.

Looking ahead, the key variables to watch are the durability of Türkiye's competitive position, the potential for post-conflict reconstruction demand in Ukraine, and whether the EU's shift toward lighter, higher-volume trailer exports represents a lasting change in the product mix or a cyclical artefact.