Market evolution: Armoured military vehicles (CN 8710) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The period between 2015 and 2025 witnessed a profound transformation in the European Union's trade of tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles (CN 8710). What began as a relatively modest market characterised by near-balance in trade flows was fundamentally reshaped by geopolitical events, leading to an unprecedented surge in imports and a dramatic swing in the trade balance. This report analyses the key dynamics, focusing on the scale of the import boom, the structural shift in the EU's trade position, and the resulting market volatility and concentration.

1. An Unprecedented Import Surge Driven by New Strategic Suppliers

The EU's imports of armoured vehicles and parts underwent a radical expansion after 2022, shifting from hundreds of millions to billions of euros annually. This surge was not merely quantitative but also qualitative, with new and rapidly growing suppliers fundamentally altering the import landscape.

The scale of the import explosion

EU imports of CN 8710 products grew by 5,784% in value from 2015 to 2025. The value increased from €53 million in 2015 to €3.14 billion in 2025, with the most significant acceleration occurring from 2022 onwards. In 2025, imports were at their maximum recorded value within the period. The quantity imported also rose dramatically, by 1,740%, from 1,486 tonnes to 27,340 tonnes.

The emergence of South Korea and the United States as dominant partners

The traditional import partners were eclipsed by new strategic suppliers. While the United States remained a major partner, the most striking change was the explosive growth in imports from South Korea, which moved from negligible levels (€5,199 in 2015) to becoming the EU's largest supplier by value in 2025 at €1.53 billion. This represents a percentage increase of over 29 million per cent. Similarly, imports from Türkiye grew from €26,465 to €275 million. These shifts are reflected in the top import partners data.

Poland's role as the primary importing member state

Within the EU, Poland was the standout importer, accounting for the lion's share of the increase. Its imports grew by 23,775%, from €11 million in 2015 to €2.63 billion in 2025. Other significant importers like Romania and Estonia also saw substantial growth, but Poland's figures indicate it was the primary destination for the massive inflow of armoured vehicles, likely driven by defence modernisation and regional security concerns.

2. A Structural Shift from Trade Surplus to Deficit

The import surge directly caused a fundamental reversal in the EU's trade position for CN 8710 products. The bloc moved from a position of small trade surpluses to a historically large deficit, altering its role in the global market for these goods.

The swing from surplus to a €2.4 billion deficit

The EU's trade balance for armoured vehicles flipped dramatically. It started with a small surplus of €6.9 million in 2015 and ended in 2025 with a large deficit of €2.42 billion. This swing of over 35,000% underscores the shift from near self-sufficiency to heavy reliance on external suppliers.

Divergent growth rates in imports versus exports

While EU exports also grew significantly (1,087% in value, from €60 million to €715 million), this growth was dwarfed by the import increase. The export growth, though substantial, suggests a dynamic but ultimately overshadowed domestic production and export sector. The top export destinations in 2025 were Ukraine (€163 million), the United Kingdom (€279 million), and Spain (€333 million), indicating a focus on allied and nearby markets.

Rising unit prices across both flows

Both import and export prices per tonne increased substantially over the decade, by 231% and 50% respectively. The much steeper rise in import prices (to €114,797 per tonne in 2025) compared to export prices (€61,224) suggests that the imported equipment, on average, may be of higher value or more complex systems. This price divergence contributed to the widening value deficit.

3. Market Volatility, Shocks, and Increasing Concentration

The period was marked by high volatility, significant price and supply shocks, and a trend towards greater market concentration, particularly on the import side.

High volatility in trade with key partners

Trade relationships exhibited extreme volatility. For example, the coefficient of variation for EU imports from Türkiye was 3.17, indicating highly unstable flows. Similarly, exports to the United Arab Emirates and Japan showed high volatility (CV > 2.0). This points to trade that is often project-based or politically sensitive, leading to irregular shipment patterns.

Documented supply and price shocks

The data analysis detected several shocks. The most notable was a massive price shock in imports from South Korea in 2022, with an abnormality score of 950 and a 347% price shift, coinciding with the value share reaching 44.2%. A significant price shock for exports to Canada occurred in 2018. These events highlight the market's sensitivity to geopolitical shifts and large-scale procurement contracts.

Increasing concentration in import and export markets

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for both imports and exports increased, indicating rising market concentration. The HHI for import value grew by 75% to 3,877, and for export value by 98% to 2,360. This concentration is driven by the dominance of a few key partners (US and South Korea on imports; Ukraine, UK, Spain on exports) and suggests a less diversified trading base, which can increase vulnerability to disruptions.

Conclusion

The decade from 2015 to 2025 redefined the EU's trade in armoured military vehicles. The dominant narrative is the post-2022 import surge, fueled by the geopolitical imperative to support Ukraine and bolster European defence, which turned the EU into a major net importer. This was characterised by a dramatic pivot towards suppliers like South Korea and the United States, a consequent swing into a substantial trade deficit, and increased market volatility and concentration. The data reflects a market that transitioned from stability to one shaped by urgency, strategic procurement, and new global supply chains for defence materiel. The lasting impacts of this shift on the EU's defence industrial base and trade policy remain a critical area for observation.