Market evolution: Buses (CN 8702) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in buses and motor vehicles for the transport of 10 or more persons (Combined Nomenclature code 8702) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading covers diesel, electric, hybrid (diesel-electric and petrol-electric), and other propulsion types, including minibuses and full-size coaches. The decade under review was marked by three overarching dynamics: a dramatic reversal of the EU's trade balance from surplus to deep deficit, a rapid electrification of the bus fleet that reshaped both import volumes and product composition, and a fundamental reorientation of trade partners driven by the rise of Türkiye and China. Together, these shifts suggest that the EU bus market has undergone a structural transformation — moving from a largely self-sufficient, export-oriented industry to one with growing import dependence, particularly for zero-emission vehicles.

For full reference data, see the overview dashboard on TradeDashboard.

1. A Structural Reversal: From Export Surplus to Import Dependence

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the complete inversion of the EU's trade position in buses. At the start of the period, the EU was a modest net exporter; by 2025, it had become a large net importer.

1.1 The trade balance swung from surplus to a €2.8 billion deficit

In 2015, EU exports of CN 8702 to non-EU countries stood at €1.47 billion, while imports were €1.23 billion, yielding a positive trade balance of approximately €235 million. By 2025, exports had fallen to €1.09 billion (−25.8%) while imports surged to €3.93 billion (+218.3%), resulting in a trade deficit of roughly €2.84 billion. Net import reliance, which started at −10.8% (indicating a net exporter position), reached +24.0% by 2025 — a shift of over 34 percentage points. The net import reliance indicator shows that the crossover from net exporter to net importer occurred around 2020–2021.

1.2 Import volumes and unit values both rose sharply

EU imports by mass grew from 105,802 tonnes in 2015 to 226,520 tonnes in 2025 (+114.1%), while the average price per tonne rose from €11,659 to €17,332 (+48.7%). This combination of higher volumes and higher unit values — totalling a near-tripling of import value — suggests that the EU was not simply importing more buses, but also more expensive ones, consistent with a shift toward electric and premium vehicles. The trade overview provides the full time series.

1.3 EU bus production lost volume but gained value

According to PRODCOM production data, EU domestic production of buses fell from 30,165 units in 2015 to 23,139 units in 2025 (−23.3%). Yet production value increased from €4.83 billion to €6.25 billion (+29.5%). This divergence points to a shift in the domestic product mix toward higher-value vehicles — likely electric and articulated buses — even as the physical number of units produced declined. The growing gap between domestic production and market demand was increasingly filled by imports.

2. The Electrification Wave: Electric Buses Reshape Import Composition

The product breakdown within CN 8702 reveals that the electrification of the bus fleet was the single most important driver of the import surge. Electric buses went from a negligible presence to the fastest-growing segment.

2.1 Pure-electric bus imports (870240) grew from virtually zero to over €1.28 billion

In 2015 and 2016, subheading 870240 (buses with only an electric motor for propulsion) recorded no trade at all. By 2017, imports appeared at just 930 tonnes and €17.9 million. By 2025, they had reached 53,539 tonnes and €1.28 billion — representing roughly one-third of total EU bus imports by value. The product segment breakdown shows this exponential trajectory clearly.

2.2 Diesel remains the largest segment but is losing share

Diesel buses (870210) still accounted for the largest share of imports in 2025, at 166,195 tonnes and €2.54 billion. However, their share of total import value declined from 96.2% in 2015 to 64.7% in 2025. In parallel, the unit price of imported diesel buses (per tonne) rose from €11,636 to €15,282, reflecting possible inflation in manufacturing costs and a trend toward larger or more equipped vehicles. By contrast, the average tonne-price of imported electric buses fluctuated around €23,000–€29,000, roughly double the diesel price — reflecting both battery costs and the higher specification of electric buses.

2.3 Hybrid buses remain marginal in trade flows

Hybrid diesel-electric (870220) and petrol-electric (870230) buses remained small categories in both imports and exports. Diesel-electric hybrid imports reached 3,822 tonnes and €61.5 million in 2025, while petrol-electric hybrids stood at just 510 tonnes and €9.1 million. Together they represented less than 3% of import value. This suggests that the EU market leapfrogged hybrids in favour of full-electric solutions, consistent with the regulatory push toward zero-emission urban buses under EU clean-vehicle procurement rules.

2.4 Electric bus exports are growing but remain modest

EU exports of pure-electric buses also grew, from zero in 2015–2016 to 7,370 tonnes and €260.9 million in 2025. However, this was only about one-fifth of the value of electric bus imports, reinforcing the net import dependency in this segment. The EU's export propensity for the overall bus category declined from 17.0% to 12.1% over the period, confirming a structural decline in the EU's outward orientation.

3. Shifting Trade Partners: Türkiye and China Ascend as Traditional Markets Fade

The geographic composition of EU bus trade changed profoundly between 2015 and 2025, with two countries — Türkiye and China — accounting for the bulk of the import growth, while several traditional export markets contracted sharply.

3.1 Türkiye became the EU's dominant bus supplier, reaching €2.5 billion

EU imports from Türkiye grew from €948 million in 2015 to €2.53 billion in 2025 (+166.7%), making Türkiye by far the largest single source of imported buses. Türkiye's share of total EU bus imports was approximately 64% in 2025. This reflects the well-established role of Turkish manufacturers (such as Otokar, BMC, and TEMSA) in supplying both diesel and increasingly electric buses to European transit authorities. The partner breakdown shows this dominance. Importantly, imports from Türkiye were relatively stable (coefficient of variation of 0.25), suggesting a consistent supply relationship rather than sporadic shipments.

3.2 Chinese bus imports surged by over 1,200%, driven by electric vehicles

The most dramatic proportional increase came from China: EU imports rose from €77 million in 2015 to €1.02 billion in 2025 (+1,228.5%). China thus became the second-largest import partner, accounting for roughly 26% of EU bus import value. This growth was almost entirely driven by electric buses. Chinese manufacturers such as BYD have become major suppliers of battery-electric buses to European cities, benefiting from early-mover advantages in electric bus technology and battery supply chains. However, import flows from China were more volatile (coefficient of variation of 0.92), consistent with a market still in rapid expansion and subject to tender cycles. Morocco also emerged as a notable new supplier, with imports growing from €12 million to €69.5 million (+478.7%), likely reflecting the establishment of bus manufacturing plants serving the European market.

3.3 EU bus exports to the United States collapsed

On the export side, the most dramatic decline was in trade with the United States. EU exports to the US fell from €302 million in 2015 to just €4.6 million in 2025 (−98.5%). This near-total collapse suggests either a withdrawal of European bus manufacturers from the US market, the imposition of trade barriers, or a shift in procurement patterns. Other traditional export destinations showed more moderate changes: exports to the United Kingdom (−10.0%) and Norway (−17.8%) declined modestly, while those to Switzerland (+58.0%), Serbia (+260.1%), and Ukraine (+309.6%) grew. The reporter-level data shows that Germany, Belgium, and France — historically the largest EU exporters — all saw significant declines in their export values.

3.4 Import concentration declined as supply diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU bus imports by value fell from 6,092 to 4,885 (−19.8%). While this still indicates moderate concentration — driven by the sheer weight of Türkiye — the decline reflects the rising share of China and the emergence of smaller suppliers such as Morocco. On the export side, concentration increased modestly (HHI rising from 1,078 to 1,370), as the loss of the large US market made remaining destinations relatively more important. Among EU member states, Czechia (RSCA: 0.57) and Poland (RSCA: 0.54) showed the strongest export specialisation in bus production, consistent with the presence of major manufacturers such as SOR (Czechia) and Solaris (Poland, now part of CAF).

Conclusion

The EU bus market (CN 8702) underwent a fundamental structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. The most consequential change was the shift from a net exporter to a substantial net importer, with the trade deficit reaching €2.84 billion by 2025. This was driven by two reinforcing forces: the rapid electrification of bus fleets — which saw electric bus imports grow from zero to €1.28 billion in less than a decade — and the rise of Türkiye and China as dominant suppliers. At the same time, EU bus production became more value-intensive but less volume-oriented, and traditional export markets, most notably the United States, contracted sharply. The data points to a European bus industry in transition: still producing high-value vehicles domestically, but increasingly reliant on external suppliers — particularly for electric buses — to meet the accelerating demand driven by the continent's clean-mobility transition.