Market evolution: Diesel buses (CN 870210) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in diesel-powered buses designed to transport ten or more persons (Combined Nomenclature code 870210) over the period 2015–2025. The analysis covers trade flows, partner concentration, production trends, and structural vulnerability indicators. Over the decade, the EU diesel-bus market has undergone a fundamental transformation: the Union shifted from being a net exporter to a significant net importer, with a single third-country partner — Türkiye — now accounting for the overwhelming share of inbound trade. These changes reflect both the global transition away from diesel in passenger transport and shifts in competitive manufacturing advantage.

1. A Decade-Long Reversal: From Net Exporter to Net Importer

The trade balance swung by nearly €2 billion

The most striking development over the period is the complete inversion of the EU's trade position. In 2015, the EU recorded a modest trade surplus of approximately €168 million in diesel buses. By 2025, this had become a deficit of roughly €1,753 million — a swing of over €1.9 billion. (Trade overview)

Import growth outpaced export decline in absolute terms

While exports roughly halved in value (from €1.35 billion to €787 million), imports more than doubled (from €1.19 billion to €2.54 billion). The import surge accelerated from 2020 onwards, coinciding with the post-COVID recovery in fleet renewals and public transport procurement across the EU. (Net import reliance)

The 2020 shock hit exports harder than imports

Both sides of the trade flow were disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, but the asymmetry is telling. EU exports of diesel buses fell to their lowest point in the entire series at approximately €510 million in 2021 (a lagged effect), while imports dipped more moderately and then recovered rapidly. This suggests that EU-based bus manufacturers faced a structural, not merely cyclical, loss of external market share.

Trade intensity rose while export propensity fell

The EU's trade intensity for this product (total extra-EU trade relative to production) climbed from 22.6% in 2015 to 38.8% in 2025, indicating that the market has become far more open. However, export propensity — the share of domestic production sold abroad — declined from 17.0% to 12.1%. This divergence confirms that the growing trade exposure is overwhelmingly import-driven. (Trade intensity, Export propensity)

2. Türkiye's Dominance and Rising Import Concentration

Türkiye accounts for over 85% of EU diesel-bus imports by value

Among third-country suppliers, Türkiye stands out as overwhelmingly dominant. In 2015, Turkish imports were already valued at €925 million; by 2025, this figure had risen to €2,182 million — a 136% increase. Türkiye's share in total EU imports of CN 870210 thus grew from roughly 78% to over 85%. (Top partners)

Import concentration has increased significantly

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 6,224 in 2015 to 7,541 in 2025 (an increase of 21.2%). This level of concentration is well above the commonly used 2,500 threshold for a "highly concentrated" market and reflects near-total dependence on Turkish supply. (Concentration)

Export destinations have become more fragmented but smaller

On the export side, the HHI fell slightly from 1,153 to 1,047 (−9.2%), indicating marginally lower concentration. However, this masks the collapse of several major markets:

The near-total disappearance of US-bound exports (from €302 million to €4 million) is the single largest contributor to the overall export decline. The loss of the Swiss market (-50%) and reduced shipments to Norway (-37%) further eroded the EU's traditional export base. Partially offsetting these losses, Eastern European markets (Ukraine, Serbia) grew, likely reflecting EU-supported fleet modernisation and geopolitical proximity.

Morocco and China are emerging but remain minor players

Morocco's imports into the EU surged by 480% (from €12 million to €69 million), and China's grew by 65% (from €69 million to €113 million). While still dwarfed by Türkiye, these trends suggest a gradual diversification of supply — or at least the early stages of it. Morocco's rise may be linked to the country's growing role as an automotive assembly hub for European manufacturers, while China's increase reflects its expanding global bus manufacturing capacity.

EU member states show divergent import patterns

Among EU member states, France is the largest importer of diesel buses from outside the EU (€566 million in 2025, nearly doubling from 2015), followed by Germany (€415 million, +121%) and Spain (€273 million, +502%). Spain's five-fold increase is the most dramatic, possibly reflecting fleet renewal programmes in urban public transport. (EU reporters)

3. Declining Production Capacity and Shifting Export Competitiveness

EU production volumes have contracted while values have risen

According to PRODCOM data, EU production of diesel buses (≥10 persons) fell from 30,165 units in 2015 to 23,139 units in 2025 (−23.3%). Over the same period, the value of production rose from €4.83 billion to €6.25 billion (+29.5%). This divergence points to a sharp increase in the average unit value of buses produced within the EU — consistent with a shift towards higher-specification, premium vehicles while lower-cost, mass-market production has migrated to countries like Türkiye. (Production volumes)

The new large-displacement segment dominates imports

Looking at the four-digit sub-segments, imports are overwhelmingly concentrated in CN 87021011 — new diesel buses with cylinder capacity above 2,500 cm³. This sub-category accounted for €2,330 million of the €2,540 million total import value in 2025 (91.7%). Its volume (tonnes) grew from 75,541 t to 141,415 t over the period. (Product segment breakdown)

The used-vehicle segment (87021019) actually declined by 44% in value, suggesting tightening regulations or fleet preferences moving away from second-hand imports.

EU exports of new large diesel buses have collapsed

On the export side, the mirror image is clear. Exports of new large-displacement diesel buses (87021011) fell from €1,166 million to €519 million (−55.5% in value). Used-vehicle exports (87021019) held more steady, rising from €122 million to €149 million (+22%), suggesting that the EU retains some competitiveness in refurbishing and re-exporting older fleet vehicles.

Notably, exports of smaller-displacement diesel buses (≤2,500 cm³) more than doubled, though they remain a small fraction of total trade.

Czechia and France lead EU specialisation, while Ireland trails

In 2025, the most specialised EU member states in diesel-bus production (measured by Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage, RSCA) were Czechia (0.57), Austria (0.41), Luxembourg (0.39), France (0.36), and Lithuania (0.32). At the other end, Ireland (−1.00), Hungary (−0.94), and Denmark (−0.77) showed strong negative specialisation, meaning they are overwhelmingly net importers with negligible domestic production. (Specialisation)

Price shocks have been episodic but notable

The volatility analysis reveals several significant price shocks. The most extreme occurred in Icelandic exports from the EU in 2023, where the price shifted by +89.4% with an abnormality score of 73.4 — likely reflecting a very small-volume, high-value transaction rather than a structural market change. A more meaningful shock occurred in Saudi Arabia (2018, +243.7% shift) and Norway (2023, +44.2%), the latter affecting a market representing 15.3% of export value. (Supply shocks)

Among import partners, Israel exhibited the highest coefficient of variation (1.56), indicating highly erratic import flows, followed by Morocco (0.78) and North Macedonia (0.62). By contrast, Türkiye — despite its dominance — showed the lowest import volatility (CV of 0.24), confirming its role as a stable, structural supplier to the EU market.

Conclusion

The EU market for diesel buses (CN 870210) has undergone a profound structural transformation over the 2015–2025 period. The Union has shifted from being a modest net exporter to a substantial net importer, with the trade deficit reaching €1.75 billion by 2025. This reversal is driven by two reinforcing dynamics: a collapse in outward-bound trade (especially to the United States and Switzerland) and a surge in imports overwhelmingly sourced from Türkiye, which now commands over 85% of EU inbound trade in this product.

Domestic production has declined in unit terms but increased in value, suggesting that EU manufacturers are retreating to the premium segment while leaving standard diesel-bus manufacturing to lower-cost producers. The growing import concentration (HHI rising to 7,541) poses a potential supply-chain vulnerability, particularly as the diesel-bus market itself faces an existential transition towards electrification. With the EU's net import reliance at 24% and export propensity at just 12%, the sector's exposure to external suppliers is at its highest level in the observed period.

Looking ahead, the continued shift towards zero-emission vehicles will likely accelerate these trends: EU manufacturers may focus increasingly on electric and hydrogen buses (CN 870240), while residual demand for diesel buses — especially in price-sensitive markets — will continue to flow from Turkish and, increasingly, Moroccan and Chinese factories.