Market evolution: Diesel buses (CN 87021011) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of diesel-powered buses for the transport of 10 or more persons (CN 87021011) involving the European Union (EU) with non-EU countries over the period 2015–2025. The data reveals a fundamental structural transformation in the EU's position within this market, characterized by a significant decline in export performance, a parallel surge in import dependency, and a notable shift in geographic trade patterns. This analysis explores these trends and their underlying drivers.

1. The Divergent Trajectories of EU Imports and Exports

The decade was defined by a stark divergence in the EU's trade flows for this product category. While exports contracted sharply, imports expanded dramatically, reversing the EU's historical trade position.

1.1. A Collapse in EU Export Performance

EU exports of new diesel buses experienced a severe decline across all key metrics over the period. The total value of exports fell by 55.5%, from €1.17 billion in the initial period to €519 million in the final period. This drop was even more pronounced in volume terms, with the quantity in tonnes decreasing by 60.5%. The data indicates a structural withdrawal of EU manufacturers from the global export market for this specific vehicle type. Key traditional destinations saw significant declines, with exports to the United States plummeting by 98.7% and exports to Saudi Arabia falling by 90.7% View trade overview.

1.2. A Sustained Surge in Import Activity

In direct contrast to exports, EU imports of new diesel buses surged. The import value more than doubled (+133.5%), reaching €2.33 billion by 2025. The volume in tonnes increased by 87.2% over the same period. This growth in import value outpaced growth in volume, with the average unit price (EUR per tonne) rising by 24.8%, suggesting an increase in the value or specification of imported vehicles. This sustained rise fundamentally altered the EU's trade balance, shifting from a modest surplus of €168 million in 2015 to a substantial deficit of €1.81 billion in 2025 View trade overview.

2. Shifting Geographies and Market Concentration

The evolution of trade was accompanied by a significant reorientation of key trading partners, leading to increased import concentration.

2.1. The Rise of Türkiye as the Dominant Supplier

The most defining geographical shift was the consolidation of Türkiye as the EU's overwhelmingly dominant supplier. Imports from Türkiye grew by 137.4% in value, from €867 million to €2.06 billion. By 2025, Türkiye accounted for approximately 88% of the total value of EU imports from non-EU countries for this product. This concentration is reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value, which remained high (7,862 in 2025), indicating a highly concentrated supply market. Other notable, though smaller, sources of growth included Morocco (+480%) and Serbia (+998.8%) View top partners.

2.2. The Geographic Reconfiguration of EU Exports

Export destinations also shifted, but against the backdrop of an overall decline. Traditional high-value markets contracted: exports to the United Kingdom fell by 26.5% and to Switzerland by 54.6%. The most dramatic collapse was in exports to the United States. Meanwhile, some new or emerging markets saw growth, most notably Côte d’Ivoire, where export value increased by 964.7%. This suggests a reorientation towards different, potentially more niche or regional, export markets, albeit from a much lower overall base View top partners.

2.3. Intra-EU Specialisation and Production Shifts

Within the EU, production patterns also evolved. The number of items produced fell by 23.3% (from 30,165 to 23,139 units), yet the total production value increased by 29.5% (from €4.83 billion to €6.25 billion). This indicates a decisive shift towards higher-value-added vehicles in EU manufacturing. Specialisation analysis for 2025 shows Czechia and France as the most specialised producers, while large economies like Germany show a balanced profile, and the Netherlands, Denmark, and Greece are least specialised in this product category View specialisation.

3. Strategic Implications: From Net Exporter to Net Importer

The cumulative effect of these trade flow changes is a profound shift in the EU's strategic market position for this segment.

3.1. A Reversal in Net Trade Position

The most critical metric is the net import reliance. In 2015, the EU was a net exporter with a reliance of -10.8%. By 2025, this had swung to +24.0%, meaning the EU's consumption of this product type is now significantly reliant on imports. This 322.6 percentage-point shift is the clearest indicator of the market's structural change View net import reliance.

3.2. Increased Market Openness and Export Retreat

Simultaneously, the EU market became more integrated into global trade flows. Trade intensity—the combined share of imports and exports in EU production—rose from 22.6% to 38.8%. However, this increased openness was driven by imports; export propensity (exports as a share of production) actually declined from 17.0% to 12.1%. This signifies that while the EU market for diesel buses has become more open, the European industry has become less export-oriented in this segment View trade intensity.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU market for new diesel buses (CN 87021011) underwent a fundamental transformation. The period was characterized by a precipitous decline in EU exports, a concurrent and powerful surge in imports—primarily from Türkiye—and a decisive shift in domestic production towards higher-value products. These dynamics resulted in the EU reversing its trade position to become a significant net importer, with a high degree of dependency on a single major supplier. This evolution points to a strategic repositioning within the EU, where domestic manufacturing capacity is increasingly focused on advanced, higher-margin vehicles, while demand for conventional diesel-powered buses is substantially met through imports from neighboring competitive producers. The data captures a sector in transition, influenced by regional trade dynamics, competitive advantages, and likely evolving technological and regulatory pressures.