Market evolution: Motor vehicle bodies (CN 8707) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade performance of the European Union in motor vehicle bodies (Combined Nomenclature code 8707) between 2015 and 2025. The analysis covers the EU's trade with non-EU countries, examining trends in value, volume, pricing, and the evolving geographical structure of this trade. Over the period, the EU has maintained a consistent trade surplus in this sector, although significant shifts in partner countries and product dynamics have occurred, influenced by geopolitical events and structural changes in the automotive industry.

I. Sustained Surplus Amidst Declining Volumes and Rising Unit Values

The EU has consistently been a net exporter of motor vehicle bodies throughout the period, though the scale and composition of this trade have evolved significantly. While total trade values show a general decline, underlying trends in volumes and prices reveal a more nuanced market transformation.

The EU's Trade Surplus Strengthened Despite Value Fluctuations

The EU's trade balance for CN 8707 remained positive throughout the period, peaking at over €1.57 billion in 2018 and ending at €983 million in 2025. This indicates a persistent structural advantage. The overall trade value (imports plus exports) peaked in 2018 at approximately €2.98 billion before declining to €1.62 billion in 2025, reflecting broad market adjustments. For a detailed overview of these trends, see the General Overview.

A Divergence Between Physical Volume and Supplementary Unit Trends

A key insight is the divergence between trade measured in tonnes (net mass) and by the number of items (supplementary units). EU export volumes in tonnes fell by 38.7% from 2015 to 2025, yet the number of items exported surged by 249%. This indicates a shift towards exporting a higher number of lighter bodies. Conversely, imports in tonnes declined by 27.5%, while the number of imported items also fell by 4.1%. This suggests a change in the average weight and possibly the type of bodies being traded.

Dramatic Price Dynamics Reflect Changing Product Mix

The unit price per tonne for exports increased by 54.8%, rising to €13,690/t in 2025, while import prices per tonne fell by 15.4%. The price per item tells a different story: the export price per item plummeted by 72.8% to €666, and the import price per item also fell significantly. This confirms that the EU is exporting a greater volume of lighter, lower-value-per-item bodies, while importing fewer but potentially heavier or higher-value units per item.

II. Seismic Shifts in Trade Partners Driven by Geopolitics

The geographical landscape of EU trade in motor vehicle bodies has been reshaped dramatically between 2015 and 2025. Traditional partners have lost prominence, while new patterns have emerged, reflecting broader geopolitical realignments and sanctions.

The Collapse of Trade with Russia and the United States

The most striking changes are the near-total collapse of trade with the Russian Federation and the United States. EU exports to Russia plummeted by 99.9%, from €248 million to just €200,000, a direct consequence of sanctions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Similarly, exports to the US fell by 85.4%, and imports from the US collapsed by 98.7%. These shifts are detailed in the top partners analysis.

The United Kingdom as the Dominant and Growing Export Market

In contrast, the United Kingdom solidified its position as the EU's primary export market for vehicle bodies. Exports to the UK grew by 50.7% to €714 million in 2025, accounting for a major share of the EU's total exports. This underscores the deep supply chain integration between the EU and the UK automotive sector, which has weathered the post-Brexit regulatory changes. Meanwhile, the UK's share of EU imports also grew significantly, with imports from the UK more than doubling to €38 million.

The Rise of China as an Import Source and the Emergence of New Export Destinations

China's role transformed dramatically: EU imports from China surged by 4,974% to become the third-largest source at €212 million by 2025. On the export side, the EU found growth in new markets. Exports to Algeria increased by 111.7% to €71 million, and exports to Kazakhstan exploded by 2,752% to €68 million, potentially reflecting redirected trade flows. You can explore these evolving relationships in the partners dashboard.

III. Structural Transformation: Specialisation, Production Growth, and Product Segment Divergence

Beyond trade flows, the underlying structure of the EU's motor vehicle body industry has evolved. Production within the EU has grown massively, specialization has intensified, and the two sub-product categories have moved in divergent directions.

EU Production Volumes Soar, Cementing the Trade Surplus

EU production of bodies under CN 8707 increased by 714% in terms of item count, from 1.18 million units in 2015 to 9.58 million in 2025. Production value also grew strongly, by 202.4% to nearly €24 billion. This massive expansion in domestic manufacturing capacity is the fundamental driver behind the sustained trade surplus and the ability to export more items despite lower unit values. Details on production trends can be found in the market structure section.

Specialisation Varies Widely Across EU Member States

Production is not evenly distributed. Sweden shows extreme specialisation (RSCA of 0.86) in producing these bodies, followed by Belgium (0.46). Conversely, countries like Bulgaria, Ireland, and Luxembourg show near-zero specialisation. This indicates a concentrated supply chain within the EU, with a few member states acting as the primary manufacturing hubs for the bloc and for export. The specialisation analysis provides a full ranking.

Divergent Paths for Car Bodies and Commercial Vehicle Bodies

The two sub-components of CN 8707—870710 (car bodies) and 870790 (bodies for commercial vehicles, tractors, etc.)—exhibit starkly different trends.

• Imports of Car Bodies (870710) collapsed in value by 95.3% from €463 million (2015) to €21 million (2025), while the number of items imported remained relatively stable. This points to a drastic fall in the average value per unit, possibly due to increased sourcing of simpler, cheaper bodies.
• Exports of Commercial Vehicle Bodies (870790) remained robust in value, falling only 22.6% to €634 million, while the number of items exported grew by 167% to 909,823 units. This segment demonstrates the EU's strength in heavier commercial vehicle body production.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's market for motor vehicle bodies (CN 8707) underwent a profound transformation. While the bloc maintained a trade surplus, this masks deeper structural changes. The period was characterized by a severe reorientation of trade flows away from traditional partners like the US and Russia, largely due to geopolitical sanctions and strategic shifts, and towards the UK and new markets in North Africa and Central Asia.

Simultaneously, a powerful internal restructuring occurred: EU production volumes in item counts grew exponentially, supporting the export surge despite falling unit values. The data clearly indicates a shift towards exporting a higher volume of lighter, possibly less complex bodies. This, combined with the divergent paths of the sub-segments—collapsing imports of car bodies versus resilient exports of commercial vehicle bodies—suggests an adaptation of the EU's industrial model within the global automotive supply chain. The industry has become more self-reliant in production yet more exposed to geopolitical disruptions in its sourcing and destination markets.