Market evolution: Motor vehicle parts (CN 8708) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of CN 8708 — parts and accessories for motor vehicles of headings 8701 to 8705 — as traded by the European Union with the rest of the world between 2015 and 2025. The product covers a broad range of automotive components, from gearboxes and brake systems to body parts and suspension assemblies, spanning 15 sub-categories at the 6-digit level.

Over the decade under review, the EU has remained a persistent net exporter of motor vehicle parts, yet the landscape has shifted considerably: imports have grown far more rapidly than exports, the trade surplus has narrowed, and the geography of sourcing has been redrawn by geopolitical shocks, supply-chain reconfiguration, and the rise of new manufacturing hubs.

The structural shift: rising imports erode a still-large trade surplus

The EU remains a major net exporter, but the margin is shrinking

Throughout the period 2015–2025, the EU consistently exported more motor vehicle parts (in value terms) than it imported from non-EU countries. The trade surplus stood at €27.4 billion in 2015, reached a peak of approximately €30.8 billion, but had declined to €19.9 billion by 2025 — a contraction of 27.4% over the decade.

Source: General Overview

The root cause is clear: while EU exports grew modestly (+6.5% in value), imports surged by 54.0%. Net import reliance — which was already negative (confirming net exporter status) at −12.0% in 2015 — deepened to −14.0% by 2025, meaning that the EU's export surplus relative to its own production base has widened slightly even as the absolute trade balance has compressed.

Export volumes have fallen even as values have held up

A striking divergence appears on the export side between value and volume. EU export volumes fell from 5.23 million tonnes in 2015 to 4.21 million tonnes in 2025 — a 19.5% decline — while export values still managed a 6.5% increase. The reconciliation lies in unit values: export prices rose from €8,992 per tonne to €11,901 per tonne (+32.4%), indicating that the EU is exporting fewer tonnes but at significantly higher average prices — consistent with a shift toward higher-value-added components.

By contrast, import prices rose only 12.0% (from €6,031/t to €6,753/t), while import volumes grew 37.5%. This asymmetry — faster import volume growth but slower import price growth versus exports — suggests that the EU is increasingly sourcing lower-cost, higher-volume parts from abroad while retaining its competitive edge in more technologically sophisticated or higher-margin segments.

Domestic production has expanded strongly in value

EU production data confirms a substantial domestic industry expansion: production values rose from €108.8 billion in 2015 to €206.2 billion in 2025 — an 89.5% increase. Production volumes also grew (by 36.1% in weight terms), though the pace was much slower, again pointing to a rise in the value intensity of production. Trade intensity (trade as a share of production) increased from 27.6% to 35.6%, and export propensity rose from 20.5% to 26.5%, indicating that the EU's automotive parts sector has become more deeply integrated into global value chains over the decade.

A reshaped partner landscape: China and Türkiye surge, Russia collapses

China has become the EU's dominant import source — by a wide margin

The most dramatic structural shift in EU motor vehicle parts trade over 2015–2025 has been the explosive growth of imports from China. EU imports of CN 8708 from China rose from €2.5 billion in 2015 to €8.2 billion in 2025 — a staggering 229.4% increase. China has moved from being one of several large import sources to becoming the EU's single largest supplier of motor vehicle parts, overtaking the United Kingdom, Japan, and South Korea.

Source: Top partners by value — imports

China's share of EU imports has surged alongside its own rise as the world's largest vehicle and component manufacturer. The growth likely reflects both the expansion of Chinese OEMs and the relocation of Western supply chains to Chinese plants. India has also grown sharply (+194.6%), though from a smaller base, suggesting an emerging role as a supplementary sourcing hub.

Türkiye has doubled as both an import source and an export destination

Türkiye's rise is notable for being two-directional. EU imports from Türkiye grew 103.5% (from €2.4 billion to €4.9 billion), while EU exports to Türkiye grew 62.6% (from €3.2 billion to €5.3 billion). This pattern is consistent with the deep integration of Turkish suppliers into European automotive assembly chains — particularly for European OEMs that have established or expanded production in Türkiye. The bilateral flows suggest a highly interdependent relationship rather than a simple competition dynamic.

Brexit has dented UK trade flows in both directions

The United Kingdom, historically the EU's single largest export market for motor vehicle parts, has seen its import share decline. EU imports from the UK fell from €3.5 billion to €2.6 billion (−26.0%), while exports to the UK — though still the largest single-country destination at €8.7 billion — also declined by 5.7% from €9.2 billion. The fall in bilateral trade volumes, which accelerated after 2020, is consistent with the introduction of customs checks, rules-of-origin requirements, and regulatory divergence following the UK's departure from the EU single market.

Russia's near-total exit from EU trade

Perhaps the most geopolitically striking development has been the collapse of EU exports to Russia. From €2.2 billion in 2015, EU exports to Russia had risen to €3.5 billion by 2021 before falling to just €70 million in 2025 — a 96.8% decline from the 2015 baseline. This near-total collapse corresponds to the successive rounds of EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which restricted exports of automotive parts and technology. The volatility coefficient for this trade flow (0.72) is the highest among all major export partners, reflecting the abruptness of the disruption.

Mexico and Brazil: EU's automotive footprint in Latin America is expanding

On the export side, EU shipments to Mexico nearly doubled (+96.1%, from €1.7 billion to €3.3 billion), while exports to Brazil grew 38.4% (from €1.6 billion to €2.3 billion). Mexico's rise likely reflects the deepening of EU OEM manufacturing operations there (particularly German brands), which require a steady flow of European components. These trends also coincide with the nearshoring logic that has gained momentum in the post-pandemic period.

Internal EU specialisation: Central and Eastern Europe as production hubs

CEE countries dominate comparative advantage in motor vehicle parts

The EU's internal structure of motor vehicle parts production is geographically concentrated. Analysis of revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) indices for 2025 shows that the most specialised EU member states are overwhelmingly located in Central and Eastern Europe:

Source: Specialisation — most specialised reporters

These five countries collectively account for 37.9% of EU production in CN 8708, despite representing a much smaller share of overall EU economic output. Their comparative advantage reflects decades of investment by Western European OEMs and tier-1 suppliers in lower-cost CEE production platforms, which have become deeply integrated into pan-European supply chains.

Germany, while the largest single exporter at €25.3 billion in 2025 (roughly half of EU total exports), shows only moderate specialisation in this product — reflecting the breadth and diversity of Germany's overall export basket.

Import concentration has risen; export concentration has fallen

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by partner country rose from 1,085 to 1,326 (+22.2%) between 2015 and 2025, indicating that the EU's import sources have become more concentrated — driven primarily by China's growing dominance. By contrast, the export-side HHI fell from 1,134 to 995 (−12.3%), suggesting a modest diversification of EU export destinations.

This asymmetric evolution carries policy implications: the EU's growing dependence on a single supplier (China) for motor vehicle parts imports increases supply-chain vulnerability, even as its export markets have become somewhat more diversified.

Product-level trends: suspension and drive-axle segments show the fastest growth

Within the 7 major sub-categories tracked at the 6-digit level, the fastest-growing import segment by volume has been 870880 (suspension systems and shock absorbers), which rose from 180,584 tonnes in 2015 to 399,837 tonnes in 2025 (+121.4%). In value terms, imports in this segment more than doubled from €953 million to €2.2 billion. Similarly, 870850 (drive-axles and related components) saw import volumes grow from 278,589 tonnes to 505,373 tonnes (+81.4%).

On the export side, the largest segment by value remains 870899 (other parts and accessories) at €10.1 billion in 2025, followed by 870840 (gearboxes) at €10.9 billion — though both recorded declines in export volume over the decade. The gearbox segment is particularly interesting: export volumes fell 11.4% while values rose 12.2%, reflecting rising unit values (from €16,693/t to €21,161/t) as the EU specialises in higher-complexity transmission technology.

Conclusion

The EU's motor vehicle parts trade (CN 8708) over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural adaptation under pressure. The Union remains a major net exporter with a robust domestic production base — production values nearly doubled to over €200 billion — but the competitive landscape has shifted in several important ways.

First, imports have grown far faster than exports, narrowing the trade surplus by 27.4% in value terms. China's emergence as the EU's dominant import source (up 229.4% to €8.2 billion) is the single most consequential development, concentrating sourcing risk in a single partner. Second, geopolitical events — Brexit and Russia sanctions in particular — have redrawn trade flows abruptly, with Russia's near-complete exit from EU trade and a measurable decline in UK bilateral flows. Third, the EU's export profile has become more price-intensive and less volume-intensive, consistent with a shift toward higher-value-added manufacturing — a trend reinforced by the strong specialisation of Central and Eastern European member states in this sector.

Looking ahead, the rising import concentration (HHI), growing trade intensity, and deepening dependence on Asian sourcing all point to an industry at a crossroads — balancing the efficiency gains of global supply chains against the strategic vulnerabilities they create.