Market evolution: Seat belts (CN 870821) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the extra-EU trade dynamics of safety seat belts for motor vehicles (CN 870821) over the period 2015–2025. The EU has historically been a strong net exporter of this product, hosting major producers in Germany, Romania, Hungary, and other Central European countries. However, the decade under review has been marked by significant structural shifts: a declining trade surplus, a dramatic reorientation of both import and export partners, and diverging price dynamics across product sub-segments. The overall trade overview provides the foundation for the analysis below.

EU extra-EU trade in seat belts (CN 870821) — 2015 vs. 2025

Source: General Overview

1. A Shrinking Trade Surplus Under Pressure from Import Growth

1.1 Exports declined in value while volume held broadly steady

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of seat belts fell from €407.8 million to €377.9 million (−7.3 %), with an intermediate peak at approximately €548.8 million. Yet exported volume in tonnes barely moved (−1.3 %), indicating that the value contraction was primarily driven by a decline in unit prices — the export price per tonne fell from €15 434 to €14 487 (−6.1 %). The supplementary-unit price fell even more sharply, from €9.11 per piece to €5.15 per piece (−43.4 %), suggesting that the EU exported a significantly larger number of items — 73.3 million pieces in 2025 versus 44.8 million in 2015 (+63.9 %) — at progressively lower unit values.

1.2 Imports grew faster, narrowing the surplus

EU imports rose from €114.5 million to €147.8 million (+29.1 %), even as imported tonnage declined by 6.2 %. The import unit price per tonne climbed from €9 439 to €12 988 (+37.6 %), while the per-piece price surged from €4.32 to €9.67 (+123.8 %). This means the EU imported fewer but more expensive items, consistent with a sourcing shift toward higher-cost origins (discussed in Section 2). The trade surplus consequently narrowed from €293.3 million to €230.1 million, a 21.5 % contraction and the lowest value observed over the period.

1.3 Production remained resilient, underpinning net-exporter status

Despite the declining surplus, the EU remained a strong net exporter throughout. EU production of seat belts stood at approximately 354 million pieces (€2.3 billion) in 2025, up from 338 million pieces (€2.2 billion) in 2015. The net import reliance indicator remained negative throughout (ranging from −1.2 % to −30.3 %), confirming the EU's structural self-sufficiency in this safety component.

2. A Dramatic Geographic Reconfiguration of Trade Partners

2.1 Türkiye became the dominant import supplier

The most striking change on the import side was the rise of Türkiye from €29.4 million in 2015 to €89.7 million in 2025 (+205.4 %), making it by far the EU's largest third-country supplier. This reflects the deepening integration of Turkish automotive suppliers into EU production chains, facilitated by the EU–Turkey customs union. Conversely, traditional Asian suppliers experienced sharp declines: imports from Korea fell from €37.1 million to €6.1 million (−83.5 %) and imports from Japan dropped from €9.3 million to €3.0 million (−68.0 %). Viet Nam emerged as a new supplier, surging from virtually zero to €8.0 million — though with the highest volatility of any import partner (coefficient of variation = 1.75).

EU top import partners — 2015 vs. 2025 (€M)

Source: Top import partners

2.2 Exports to the UK and China collapsed, while new frontiers emerged

On the export side, the two largest 2015 destinations both contracted sharply: exports to the United Kingdom fell from €106.6 million to €64.2 million (−39.8 %), almost certainly reflecting the combined effects of Brexit and the UK's growing localisation of automotive supply chains. Exports to China declined from €99.9 million to €51.3 million (−48.6 %), consistent with China's rapid development of domestic seat-belt manufacturing capacity. Exports to Russia collapsed from €18.3 million to just €28 000 (−99.8 %), a clear consequence of EU sanctions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

By contrast, EU exports to Morocco surged from €5.7 million to €25.9 million (+355.8 %), to Türkiye doubled from €20.9 million to €43.8 million (+110.2 %), and to the United States grew from €84.6 million to €93.4 million (+10.4 %). Morocco's rise mirrors its emergence as a major automotive assembly platform for European OEMs.

EU top export partners — 2015 vs. 2025 (€M)

Source: Top export partners

2.3 Import concentration surged while export markets diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration nearly doubled from 2 008 to 3 952 (+96.8 %), reflecting the growing dominance of Türkiye as a single supplier. This level places imports in a moderately concentrated zone and poses a latent supply-chain risk. On the export side, the HHI edged down from 1 795 to 1 355 (−24.5 %), confirming a modest diversification away from the UK and China toward a broader set of emerging markets.

3. Structural Shifts in Pricing, Specialisation, and Sub-Segment Dynamics

3.1 Unit-value convergence signals changing product mix

A notable feature of the decade is the convergence of import and export unit values. In 2015, the export price per tonne (€15 434) exceeded the import price (€9 439) by a factor of 1.6. By 2025, the gap had narrowed to 1.1× (€14 487 vs. €12 988), as export prices declined and import prices rose. This convergence is even more pronounced on a per-piece basis: the EU's supplementary export price fell from €9.11 to €5.15 (−43.4 %), while the import price rose from €4.32 to €9.67 (+123.8 %), effectively inverting the previous relationship.

3.2 Sub-segment 87082190 drives the per-piece price decline in exports

The product sub-segment breakdown reveals that the non-OEM segment (87082190) — seat belts excluding those destined for industrial assembly of specific vehicle types — accounts for the bulk of export flows. In 2025, this sub-code represented €375.2 million of the €377.9 million total export value. Between 2015 and 2025, the number of exported items in this segment nearly doubled (from 41.4 million to 73.0 million pieces, +76 %) while total value was virtually flat (€385.3 M → €375.2 M). The resulting per-piece price dropped from €9.31 to €5.14 (−45 %). This pattern is consistent with EU producers increasingly exporting a high volume of competitively priced seat belts — possibly for assembly in nearby low-cost manufacturing hubs such as Morocco and Türkiye.

3.3 Central and Eastern Europe anchors EU specialisation

The specialisation analysis for 2025 highlights Romania (RSCA = 0.88, RCA = 16.3), Hungary (RSCA = 0.77, RCA = 7.8), and Poland (RSCA = 0.56, RCA = 3.6) as the most specialised EU producers. Germany remains the largest exporter by absolute value (€178.7 million in 2025, down from €216.6 million in 2015, −17.5 %), reflecting its role as the EU's automotive heartland. Romania's exports grew modestly to €74.6 million (+7.6 %), while Spain and Italy emerged as notable new importers within the EU (Spain: +238.8 %; Italy: +212.6 %), suggesting a redistribution of assembly activity within the bloc.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in safety seat belts (CN 870821) underwent a quiet but profound transformation. While the EU remained a robust net exporter — supported by stable production of over 350 million pieces annually — its trade surplus narrowed by 21.5 % to €230.1 million, driven by rising imports (+29.1 % in value) and softening export prices. The most consequential geographic shifts were the rise of Türkiye as the EU's dominant import source (surpassing Korea and Japan), the near-total collapse of exports to Russia following 2022 sanctions, and the growing importance of emerging automotive hubs like Morocco as export destinations. Rising import concentration (HHI nearly doubling) presents a supply-chain vulnerability, even as export markets have diversified slightly. The dramatic decline in per-piece export prices, especially in the non-OEM sub-segment, points to EU producers adapting their product mix and pricing strategy to compete in volume-driven markets — a trend that merits close monitoring in the years ahead.