Market evolution: Mufflers and exhaust pipes (CN 870892) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade evolution of silencers, mufflers, and exhaust pipes (Combined Nomenclature code 870892) by the European Union with non-EU countries from 2015 to 2025. Over the decade, the EU's market position for this automotive component underwent a fundamental transformation, shifting from a net exporter to a position of near equilibrium. This structural change is characterized by a significant rise in imports, a decline in export volumes, and a substantial reorientation of trade partnerships, reflecting broader shifts in global automotive supply chains.

The Erosion of the EU's Trade Surplus in Exhaust Systems

The most striking development over the analyzed period is the near-disappearance of the EU's traditional trade surplus in mufflers and exhaust pipes. A General Overview of trade flows reveals a dramatic reversal in the EU's competitive position.

Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of CN 870892 grew substantially while exports contracted. This dual pressure caused the trade surplus to collapse.

Source: General Overview

This convergence is further evidenced by the EU's net import reliance, which moved from a negative value (indicating net export status) of -3.6% in 2015 to -1.1% in 2025, confirming the sector's move towards a trade balance. While unit values increased for both exports and imports, the surge in import volume was the primary driver of the balance shift.

A Fundamental Reorientation of Trade Partnerships

Concurrent with the shrinking surplus, the geographic pattern of EU trade in mufflers and exhaust pipes was fundamentally reconfigured. The EU's dependency on traditional partners declined sharply, while new or previously minor suppliers gained significant market share.

The Declining Role of the United Kingdom

The United Kingdom, once the EU's dominant export market and a key source of imports, saw its role diminish drastically. Its share in EU imports and exports collapsed, a trend likely accelerated by Brexit.

Source: Top Partners by Value

The Rise of New Supplier Hubs: China, Turkey, Serbia, and India

As the UK's role waned, other partners filled the void. China consolidated its position as the largest extra-EU supplier, with imports from China increasing by 131.6% to €240.1 million. More notably, imports from Serbia experienced explosive growth of 4,278.6%, catapulting it to the third-largest supplier by 2025. Türkiye and India also saw their exports to the EU roughly double and nearly quadruple, respectively.

Source: Top Partners by Value

The rise of Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina suggests a growing role for Western Balkan countries within the EU automotive supply chain, likely benefiting from proximity, cost advantages, and EU integration perspectives.

Diversification and Volatility in Export Destinations

On the export side, the EU diversified beyond the UK. While shipments to the UK fell, exports to Brazil and Mexico grew strongly (by 394.4% and 83.5%, respectively). The concentration of exports, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), decreased from 2445 to 1311, indicating a less concentrated and more diversified export portfolio by 2025.

Shifting Product Dynamics and Specialization Patterns

Beyond overall volumes and partners, the composition of traded products and the specialization of EU member states evolved, pointing to structural adjustments within the European industry.

Changes in Product Segment Flows

The detailed product segment breakdown shows divergent trends across subcategories. For instance, EU imports of complete silencers and exhaust pipes (subheading 87089235) grew strongly in both volume and value. In contrast, imports of parts for industrial assembly (subheading 87089220) declined significantly in volume by 2025, suggesting potential shifts in where final assembly occurs.

Notably, the unit price for imported parts of closed-die forged steel (subheading 87089291) showed high volatility, peaking in 2023 before falling, which could reflect fluctuations in raw material costs or supply chain disruptions.

National Specialization within the EU

Internal EU production data, coupled with trade figures, reveals distinct national specializations. According to specialization indexes, Czechia and Portugal displayed the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in producing and exporting CN 870892 products in 2025. This aligns with their roles as important automotive manufacturing hubs within the EU.

Conversely, large economies like the Netherlands and France showed negative RCA values, indicating they are net importers of this product category relative to their overall trade, likely due to the structure of their automotive sectors.

Production Trends: A Shift Towards Higher Value

EU domestic production of CN 870892 products exhibited a divergent trend between volume and value. While production quantity (in kg) decreased by 7.9% over the period, production value more than doubled, increasing by 103.0%. This indicates a potential shift towards manufacturing higher-value or more technologically complex exhaust system components within the EU, even as the overall trade balance eroded.

Conclusion

The 2015–2025 period was transformative for the EU's muffler and exhaust pipe market. The EU transitioned from a strong net exporter to a position of trade balance, driven by a 48.6% rise in import values. This was underpinned by a dramatic reconfiguration of trade partners: the UK's role collapsed, while China, Turkey, Serbia, and India emerged as major suppliers to the EU. Within the EU, production shifted towards higher value, and specialization concentrated in Central European member states like Czechia and Portugal. These dynamics reflect broader trends in the global automotive industry, including supply chain regionalization, post-Brexit trade restructuring, and a continuous cost-driven search for competitive sourcing. The sector's future will likely be shaped by the automotive electrification transition, which poses both challenges and opportunities for traditional exhaust system manufacturers.