Market evolution: Ships and boats (CN 89) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Combined Nomenclature heading 89 encompasses Ships, Boats and Floating Structures, a heterogeneous product group that includes cruise and cargo ships (8901), yachts and pleasure boats (8903), fishing vessels (8902), tugs (8904), dredgers and offshore platforms (8905), warships and lifeboats (8906), floating structures (8907), and vessels destined for scrapping (8908).

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU maintained a consistent and growing trade surplus in this sector. Export values rose by 60.4% — from €18.6 billion to €29.8 billion — while imports grew by 53.7%, reaching €15.7 billion. The trade surplus consequently widened from €8.3 billion to €14.0 billion (+68.6%), reinforcing the EU's role as a dominant net exporter of maritime vessels.

However, behind these headline figures lies a profound structural transformation. Physical trade volumes moved sharply in the opposite direction: export tonnage fell by 78.7% and import tonnage collapsed by 97.8%. This divergence between value and volume is the central story of the decade, pointing to a decisive shift towards fewer, but far more valuable, vessels.

This report is structured around three main findings: the value-volume divergence and its industrial implications; the geographic reorientation of trade flows driven by China's rise and Russia's exclusion; and the product-level and member-state specialisation trends that underpin the EU's evolving position in global shipbuilding.

Rising Values, Shrinking Tonnes: The EU's Upmarket Transformation

The macro-level paradox of value growth and volume collapse

The most striking feature of EU trade in CN 89 over the past decade is the stark divergence between value and volume trends. On the export side, values rose from €18.6 billion to €29.8 billion (+60.4%), while tonnage plummeted from 456,205 tonnes to just 96,952 tonnes (−78.7%). On the import side, values grew from €10.2 billion to €15.7 billion (+53.7%), yet tonnage collapsed from 5.74 million tonnes to a mere 127,617 tonnes (−97.8%).

This paradox resolves when we examine unit values. Export unit values surged from €24,621 per tonne to €208,648 per tonne — an increase of 747%. Import unit values rose even more dramatically, from €530 per tonne to €50,335 per tonne — a staggering 9,393% increase. The import-side shift is partly explained by the disappearance of very heavy, low-unit-value tonnage (notably bulk cargo vessels worth only €1–€2 per tonne in 2015) from the trade flows, replaced by higher-value vessel categories.

EU production data confirms the upmarket shift

The EU's own domestic production figures reinforce this interpretation. The number of vessels produced fell by 24.0%, from 211,789 items to 160,896 items. Yet production value more than tripled, rising from €4.4 billion to €13.2 billion — a 202.9% increase. The implied average value per vessel thus rose from roughly €20,600 to approximately €82,200, confirming that EU shipyards have repositioned towards fewer, more expensive, and likely more technologically sophisticated vessels.

A widening trade surplus amid structural change

Despite the volume contraction, the EU's trade surplus widened by 68.6%, from €8.3 billion to €14.0 billion. Net import reliance deepened to −108.6% by 2025 (from −22.8% in 2015), meaning that the EU's export earnings in this sector increasingly dwarf its import spending. The EU is not merely self-sufficient in ships and boats — it is a major net supplier to the world, even as it sources certain vessel categories (notably transport ships and increasingly yachts) from abroad.

Geographic Consolidation: China's Import Surge and the Waning of Russian Trade

China became the EU's dominant import source

The most significant geographic shift on the import side was the rise of China. Chinese ship exports to the EU grew from €698 million in 2015 to €2,832 million in 2025 — a 305.7% increase. By 2025, China was by far the largest single-country source of imports, reflecting the broader global consolidation of commercial shipbuilding in East Asian yards.

Norway and the United Kingdom remained stable mid-range import sources, growing modestly at +11.6% and +9.2% respectively. Serbia, while starting from a small base, saw the fastest percentage growth (+584.0%), rising from €9 million to €63 million.

Russia's trade collapsed under sanctions

In stark contrast, Russian exports to the EU fell from €273 million to just €2 million — a 99.3% decline. This collapse, concentrated from 2022 onwards, reflects the impact of EU sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which severely restricted trade in maritime equipment and vessels. Russia's formerly meaningful contribution to EU imports was effectively eliminated.

Similarly, imports from the Bahamas — historically a flag-of-convenience jurisdiction — fell by 94.7%, from €668 million to €35 million. The sharp decline in flows nominally attributed to the Bahamas likely reflects changes in vessel registration and flagging practices rather than a genuine shift in production origins, as the Bahamas does not host significant shipbuilding capacity.

The United States consolidated its position as the EU's top export destination

On the export side, the United States remained the EU's largest single customer, with exports growing from €3.1 billion to €6.3 billion (+106.9%). The US now absorbs over one-fifth of all EU ship and boat exports by value — a dominant position that grew substantially over the decade.

Norway, historically a large buyer of EU-built vessels (particularly offshore and specialised craft), saw its imports from the EU decline by 45.6%, from €2.0 billion to €1.1 billion. This decline is consistent with the downturn in the North Sea offshore oil and gas sector and the reduced demand for specialised offshore vessels. Conversely, Türkiye (+227.3%) and the United Kingdom (+57.2%) emerged as growing export markets, the latter partly reflecting post-Brexit bilateral trade dynamics.

Trade concentration intensified on both sides

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports rose from 840 to 2,064 (+145.7%), while export HHI increased from 822 to 1,737 (+111.3%). Both flows are now substantially more concentrated among a smaller number of dominant partners. The import-side HHI is approaching the 2,500 threshold commonly associated with high concentration, driven primarily by China's growing share. On the export side, the increasing dominance of the United States is the principal factor.

Rising concentration introduces strategic vulnerability. Volatility analysis confirms that several key partners exhibit extreme price variability. The United Kingdom registered the most significant supply shock in 2023, with import prices surging by 1,934.3% and an abnormality score of 87.8 — likely reflecting the delivery of a single very high-value vessel (such as a mega yacht or cruise ship) that dramatically skewed unit values. Other high-volatility partners include the Russian Federation (coefficient of variation 3.22), the Bahamas (3.27), and Brazil (3.25) on the import side, and Paraguay (3.30), Ghana (3.31), and Sierra Leone (3.21) on the export side — all characterised by episodic, lumpy trade in individual vessels.

The Pleasure-Vessel Boom and Member-State Specialisation Shifts

Yachts and pleasure boats became the fastest-growing segment

Across the product-level breakdown, the standout performer was segment 8903 — Yachts and other vessels for pleasure or sports.

EU yacht exports more than doubled, from €5.3 billion to €11.4 billion (+116.0%). At the supplementary-unit level, the number of pleasure vessels exported actually declined (from 72,899 to 53,027 items, approximately −27%), while the implied average export price per vessel rose from roughly €70,818 in 2015 to €215,815 in 2025 — a threefold increase reflecting the growing global appetite for large, high-end luxury yachts and the EU's competitive strength in this premium niche.

On the import side, yacht imports nearly tripled, from €1.5 billion to €4.4 billion (+199.7%), suggesting that the EU is both a major producer and an avid consumer of pleasure craft. This dual role reflects the strength of Mediterranean and Northern European yachting markets and the presence of affluent EU-based clientele.

Meanwhile, 8905 (dredgers, floating platforms, and offshore structures) saw export values fall by 64.9%, from €1.6 billion to €556 million — consistent with the contraction of offshore oil and gas investment in the North Sea and globally following the 2014–2016 oil price downturn and the accelerating energy transition.

Italy overtook Poland as the EU's leading exporter

Among EU member states, the most consequential shift was Italy's rise to become the bloc's largest exporter, with shipments growing from €1.8 billion to €4.5 billion (+146.9%). Italy's dominance is concentrated in the luxury yacht segment, where Italian shipyards — particularly in Liguria, Tuscany, and Veneto — are globally recognised for their craftsmanship and design.

Poland, which was the EU's top ship exporter in 2015 at €3.1 billion, saw its exports decline by 48.8% to €1.6 billion, dropping to fourth place. Polish shipyards have historically focused on cargo vessels, ferries, and ro-ro ships — segments that experienced the most pronounced volume declines during the period. Denmark saw a strong 91.7% increase, likely driven by specialised vessel construction.

On the import side, the Netherlands emerged as the largest importer, with imports surging from €157 million to €2,698 million — a 1,622% increase. This likely reflects the Netherlands' role as a major maritime logistics hub and ship registry, with Rotterdam serving as a primary point of entry for newly built vessels arriving in the EU. France also saw a striking 395% increase, from €447 million to €2,213 million, while Poland's imports fell by 76.2% from €3.1 billion.

Specialisation patterns reflect traditional maritime strengths

The revealed comparative advantage analysis for 2025 confirms that EU specialisation in shipbuilding is concentrated in a handful of member states with long maritime traditions:

Cyprus and Malta display the highest relative specialisation (RSCA), though their absolute share of EU exports remains small due to limited economic size. Italy commands the largest absolute share of EU ship exports at 34.3%, while Poland retains a significant 13.1% despite its decline. Romania, with an RSCA of 0.460, has carved out a meaningful niche. At the other end, landlocked or non-maritime economies such as Ireland (RSCA −0.981), Luxembourg (−0.975), and Hungary (−0.973) display extreme negative specialisation, as would be expected.

Conclusion

Over the period 2015–2025, the EU's trade in ships, boats, and floating structures underwent a fundamental transformation. While the headline figures — a 60.4% rise in export values and a widening surplus to €14.0 billion — suggest robust growth, the underlying reality is more nuanced and more interesting.

The most significant trend is the decoupling of value from volume. Physical tonnage collapsed on both the export (−78.7%) and import (−97.8%) sides, while unit values surged dramatically. This reflects a decisive upmarket shift: the EU now trades fewer but far more valuable vessels, with the luxury yacht segment (8903) more than doubling in export value and Italy cementing its role as the EU's leading exporter. EU production data corroborates this picture: unit output declined 24% while production value tripled.

Geographically, the decade saw China consolidate its position as the dominant import source (+305.7%) while Russia's trade collapsed (−99.3%) under sanctions. On the export side, the United States absorbed over €6.3 billion in EU ship exports (+106.9%), making it by far the largest customer. Trade concentration, as measured by the HHI, increased substantially on both the import and export sides, raising potential concerns about dependency and vulnerability to bilateral disruptions.

The EU's competitive edge lies firmly in high-value, technology-intensive, and design-driven vessel segments — from superyachts to specialised offshore craft. However, the growing dependence on Chinese shipbuilders for commercial transport vessels and the increasing geographic concentration of export markets represent structural vulnerabilities that merit continued attention from European industrial policymakers. The green maritime transition, with its demands for new vessel technologies and retrofits, will likely be the next major force reshaping this sector in the years ahead.