Market evolution: Floating structures (CN 8907) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU external trade in customs heading 8907 — which covers rafts, tanks, coffer-dams, landing stages, buoys, beacons, and other floating structures, excluding vessels classified under headings 8901–8906 and structures destined for breaking up — over the period 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a market undergoing a fundamental rebalancing: while the EU has historically been a strong net exporter in this product category, its trade surplus has eroded sharply over the decade, driven by a simultaneous decline in export volumes and a near-doubling of imports. Three key dynamics shape this story: the structural contraction of the EU's export base, the rapid growth of imports led by a handful of Member States, and significant shifts in partner geography that reflect broader geopolitical and economic changes. The full dashboard for CN 8907 provides the underlying data for this analysis.

1. A Vanishing Surplus: The EU's Changing Trade Balance in Floating Structures

The most striking macro-level trend over the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic erosion of the EU's trade surplus in floating structures. In 2015, the EU exported €283.5 million worth of products under heading 8907 while importing only €80.7 million, generating a comfortable surplus of €202.8 million. By 2025, that surplus had collapsed to just €56.2 million — a decline of 72.3%. This was not the result of a single shock, but rather the compound effect of a decade-long decline in exports and a steady build-up of imports.

1.1. Exports: Declining volumes and rising unit values

EU exports of floating structures fell from €283.5 million in 2015 to €200.2 million in 2025, a contraction of 29.4% in value terms. The decline was even more pronounced in volume: net mass exported dropped from 25,913 tonnes to 18,180 tonnes (−29.8%), and the supplementary unit count — the number of discrete items shipped — fell from 1,220,947 to 695,252 (−43.1%). The minimum export value over the period was reached in 2022 (€174.7 million), before a partial recovery in 2023–2025.

A key nuance emerges when comparing the mass and item metrics. The item count fell much faster (−43.1%) than the tonnage (−29.8%), implying that the average weight per exported item increased — consistent with a shift toward larger, heavier floating structures (such as landing stages or industrial buoys) and away from lighter goods. At the same time, the rise in unit values — both per tonne (+18.2%) and per item (+24.1%) — indicates that the EU has been moving upmarket, exporting fewer but more expensive structures.

1.2. Imports: Nearly doubling in a decade

In stark contrast to exports, EU imports of floating structures grew from €80.7 million in 2015 to €144.0 million in 2025 (+78.5%). The imported tonnage nearly doubled, rising from 5,299 tonnes to 10,496 tonnes (+98.1%), while the number of imported items grew from 971,615 to 1,430,145 (+47.2%). The import unit value (per tonne) remained broadly stable over the period (€13,612 in 2015 vs. €13,722 in 2025), suggesting that the growth was driven primarily by volume rather than by a shift to more expensive products.

1.3. The trajectory of the surplus

The EU's trade surplus peaked in 2015 at €202.8 million and narrowed nearly every year thereafter. By 2025, it had fallen to €56.2 million. If current trends continue, the EU could approach trade balance in this product category within the next few years. This contraction reflects both the structural decline of the EU's export capacity in basic floating structures and the growing demand from EU Member States for such products sourced from third countries.

2. A Shifting Map: How Partner Geographies and Member State Roles Have Been Rearranged

Behind the aggregate trade figures lie significant changes in the geography of trade — both in terms of which non-EU partners the EU trades with and which Member States drive imports and exports.

2.1. The UK's collapse as an export destination

The most dramatic single-country change in the export data concerns the United Kingdom. In 2015, the UK was by far the EU's largest export market for floating structures, absorbing €103.6 million — more than a third of total EU exports. By 2025, this had fallen to just €27.0 million (−74.0%). While it remained the second-largest export partner in 2025, its share of EU exports shrank dramatically. This decline likely reflects a combination of Brexit-related trade frictions and changes in UK procurement patterns. The volatility of this corridor is also notable: UK exports peaked at €117.9 million in 2018 before falling sharply.

2.2. The rise of Serbia, Türkiye, and Thailand as import sources

On the import side, the most striking growth came from several emerging suppliers:

Serbia's emergence as a significant supplier — growing from virtually nothing to €6.3 million — is particularly striking and may reflect the country's growing integration into European manufacturing supply chains and its geographical proximity. China's imports doubled to €21.7 million, maintaining its position as a major source. Meanwhile, the United States, the single largest import partner in 2015 (€29.9 million), saw its share decline modestly to €27.9 million (−6.6%).

2.3. France and Italy replace Germany as the EU's import powerhouses

Among EU Member States, the composition of import demand shifted dramatically. Germany, the largest importer in 2015 with €30.3 million, saw its imports collapse to €7.4 million by 2025 (−75.5%). France, by contrast, grew from €8.1 million to €42.6 million (+425%), becoming the EU's largest importer. Italy followed a similar trajectory, surging from €4.8 million to €31.3 million (+547%). The Netherlands and Denmark also recorded solid growth. This shift suggests that Southern and Western European coastal and offshore industries — potentially linked to port infrastructure, aquaculture, or offshore energy — have been driving the increase in import demand.

2.4. Declining concentration and diversification of trade

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for both imports and exports fell significantly over the period, indicating a diversification of trade partners:

• Import concentration (by value): HHI dropped from 2,264 to 1,291 (−43%), moving from a moderately concentrated to a competitive structure.
• Export concentration (by value): HHI fell from 1,708 to 557 (−67%), reflecting a much more fragmented export landscape by 2025.

This diversification is consistent with the UK's declining share of EU exports and the emergence of multiple smaller suppliers on the import side. However, concentration by volume tells a somewhat different story: import volume concentration actually increased from HHI 1,365 to 1,869 (+37%), suggesting that while value became more diversified, physical import flows became more concentrated — possibly reflecting bulk shipments from a smaller number of low-cost suppliers. See the concentration analysis for further detail.

3. Two Products, Two Stories: The Divergent Fates of Inflatable and Non-Inflatable Floating Structures

Heading 8907 is a bundling heading that encompasses two distinct sub-categories: 890710 (inflatable rafts) and 890790 (all other floating structures — rafts, tanks, coffer-dams, landing stages, buoys, beacons, etc.). Their trade trajectories diverged significantly over the period, revealing different market dynamics.

3.1. Non-inflatable structures (890790): The EU's shrinking export stronghold

The 890790 sub-heading accounts for the bulk of trade in heading 8907. EU exports of non-inflatable floating structures fell from €245.3 million in 2015 to €137.7 million in 2025 (−44% in value). The volume decline was even steeper: tonnage dropped from 24,682t to 16,769t (−32%), and item count fell from 1,193,138 to 660,924 (−45%). The unit value per tonne fluctuated considerably — falling from €8,501 in 2015 to a trough of €4,606 in 2018, spiking to €13,195 in 2020 (possibly reflecting pandemic-related supply disruptions and the shipment of a few high-value items), before settling at €8,210 in 2025.

Imports of 890790, meanwhile, more than doubled from €32.8 million to €56.1 million (+71%), and tonnage rose from 3,512t to 7,098t (+102%). This indicates growing EU dependence on external suppliers for industrial and navigational floating structures.

3.2. Inflatable rafts (890710): A more resilient niche

Inflatable rafts followed a different trajectory. Exports of 890710 grew from €38.2 million in 2015 to €62.5 million in 2025 (+64% in value), with tonnage increasing from 1,231t to 1,411t (+15%). This sub-category thus partially offset the decline in non-inflatable exports. The unit value was highly volatile, peaking at €56,753/t in 2020 before declining to €44,308/t in 2025. The item count was relatively stable, ranging between 15,785 and 77,531 per year, suggesting that this is a lower-volume, higher-value-per-unit market.

Imports of inflatable rafts also grew strongly: from €47.9 million to €87.9 million (+83% in value) and from 1,787t to 3,398t (+90% in tonnage). By 2025, inflatable raft imports exceeded exports in value terms, making the EU a net importer in this sub-category.

3.3. Specialisation and competitive positioning

The revealed comparative advantage (RCA) data for 2025 shows that several smaller EU Member States have developed notable specialisation in floating structures, while larger economies generally do not exhibit a comparative advantage:

Croatia and Estonia stand out as highly specialised exporters, with RSCA values well above zero, though their overall share of EU exports is modest. Denmark and France are both significant exporters by volume and moderately specialised. At the other end, Lithuania, Hungary, Belgium, and Czechia show negative RSCA values, indicating that they are net importers. This specialisation map suggests that floating structure production in the EU is concentrated in coastal and maritime-oriented economies. See the specialisation analysis for details.

Conclusion

The EU market for floating structures (CN 8907) has undergone a profound transformation over the 2015–2025 period. The EU's historically strong trade surplus has shrunk by more than two-thirds, as exports contracted and imports nearly doubled. This is not a story of price collapse — unit values have generally held up or even risen — but rather one of structural volume shifts. The EU is exporting fewer floating structures while importing substantially more, particularly non-inflatable industrial and navigational structures.

The geographic reshuffling has been equally significant. The United Kingdom's role as the EU's dominant export market has diminished sharply, likely linked to Brexit. On the import side, France and Italy have emerged as the leading buyers, displacing Germany, while Serbia, Türkiye, and China have gained ground as suppliers. Trade has also become more diversified, with concentration indices falling for both imports and exports by value.

Within the product mix, inflatable rafts have proved more resilient as an EU export niche, while the broader category of non-inflatable structures — which includes everything from coffer-dams to buoys — has seen its export base erode. Looking ahead, the continued growth of EU import demand, combined with the specialised but limited export capacity of Member States like Croatia, Estonia, and Denmark, suggests that the EU's transition toward a net-importing position in this market is likely to deepen unless domestic production capacity is expanded or redirected toward higher-value segments.