Market evolution: Vessels for breaking up (CN 8908) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in vessels and other floating structures for breaking up (Combined Nomenclature code 8908) over the period 2015–2025. The Trade Dashboard overview reveals a market characterised by strong export growth, declining import values, and rising trade concentration. The EU has progressively consolidated its position as a net exporter of end-of-life vessels, with trade volumes shifting toward fewer, larger, and higher-value transactions. The following sections unpack these dynamics in detail.

1. The EU's Deepening Export Dominance and Shifting Trade Balance

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in vessels for breaking up underwent a structural transformation: exports grew substantially in value while imports contracted, producing a sharply improved trade surplus. Yet this headline narrative conceals important nuances in volumes and unit values.

1.1 Export value surged while quantities remained comparatively stable

The general overview shows that EU export value rose from €7.67 million in 2015 to €13.63 million in 2025, a +77.7% increase. In the same interval, export quantities grew only modestly from 21,621 tonnes to 22,988 tonnes (+6.3%). The gap between these two trajectories is explained by a 67.1% rise in average unit prices, from €355/t to €593/t. This suggests that the vessels being exported for demolition are, on average, heavier or of higher residual value than in earlier years.

1.2 Import volumes rose sharply, but unit values collapsed

In contrast, import value fell by 47.0%, from €1.03 million in 2015 to just €546,820 in 2025 — the lowest in the series. Meanwhile, import quantities more than doubled from 6,685 tonnes to 14,376 tonnes (+115%). The explanation lies in a 75.4% drop in average import unit values, from €154/t down to €38/t. This implies that the EU increasingly imports lower-value tonnage for breaking up — likely older, less complex hulls.

1.3 The trade balance swung decisively in the EU's favour

The EU's trade balance evolved from €6.64 million in 2015 to €13.09 million in 2025 (+97.1%). However, the minimum balance over the period dipped to –€2.55 million, indicating at least one year of net import dependence. By 2025, the surplus is robust and driven almost entirely by higher export values rather than volume growth.

2. From Diversified Flows to a Türkiye-Centred Export Market

A second major finding concerns the dramatic reorientation of the EU's export geography. Trade was once spread across several major partners but has concentrated overwhelmingly on Türkiye, while previously important destinations like India and China have faded.

2.1 Türkiye emerged as the overwhelmingly dominant buyer

According to the partner breakdown, exports to Türkiye surged from €3.01 million in 2015 to €13.38 million in 2025 — an extraordinary +343.8% increase. In 2025, Türkiye alone absorbed virtually the entire reported EU export value. This dominance reflects Türkiye's well-established ship-breaking industry, particularly in Aliaga, which has grown rapidly as an alternative to South Asian yards following tighter EU environmental regulations (notably the EU Ship Recycling Regulation).

2.2 Former major partners — India and China — saw dramatic declines

India, once a significant destination (€3.81 million in 2015), saw its share collapse to just €91,114 by 2025 (–97.6%). China similarly declined from €74,231 to €20,231 (–72.7%). Both countries have major ship-breaking sectors, but growing EU regulatory scrutiny of non-OECD recycling facilities appears to have redirected flows toward compliant yards, most of which are in Türkiye.

2.3 Import sources are episodic and geographically fragmented

On the import side, the partner data shows a less stable pattern. The United Kingdom grew from €230,678 to €518,108 (+124.6%), likely reflecting post-Brexit dynamics and the UK's own ship disposal needs. However, large one-off imports from Bahamas (€2.59 million) and Brazil (€2.11 million) appear only in single years, suggesting that import flows are driven by individual vessel transactions rather than systematic trade relationships. Norway, a historically relevant source, saw its imports drop to zero.

3. Rising Concentration and the Emergence of Italy as a New Export Hub

The third key dynamic concerns market structure: trade has become significantly more concentrated on both the import and export sides, and within the EU, Italy has supplanted Germany as the leading exporting Member State.

3.1 Herfindahl-Hirschman indices signal extreme concentration

The concentration analysis reveals a striking intensification of market concentration:

An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered "highly concentrated." Both import and export markets now exceed 9,000 — approaching the theoretical maximum of 10,000 — indicating near-monopolistic or monopsonistic structures. On the export side, this is almost entirely explained by the Türkiye dominance discussed above.

3.2 Italy overtook Germany as the EU's leading exporter

The reporter-level data shows a dramatic shift among EU Member States. Italy's exports surged from just €20,740 in 2015 to €12.55 million in 2025 — an increase of over 60,000%. In contrast, Germany — the leading exporter in 2015 at €3.81 million — saw its exports fall by 76.1% to €912,653. By 2025, Italy alone accounts for the vast majority of EU export value. This repositioning may reflect Italy's Mediterranean shipyards' proximity to Turkish breaking yards, as well as shifts in vessel ownership and flagging patterns within Europe.

3.3 Ireland and Italy display the strongest export specialisation

The specialisation data for 2025 reveals that Ireland (RSCA: 0.88, RCA: 15.6) and Italy (RSCA: 0.64, RCA: 4.5) are the most specialised EU exporters of vessels for breaking up. Ireland's position is striking given its small overall trade share (2.1%), suggesting it may serve as a flag or ownership jurisdiction for vessels destined for demolition. Large trading nations like the Netherlands (RSCA: –0.99) and Belgium (RSCA: –1.00) show no specialisation whatsoever, consistent with their roles as general trade hubs rather than niche players in this market.

3.4 Shock events highlight the price sensitivity of this market

The volatility and shock analysis detected two major price shocks:

• A Türkiye export price shock in 2019 with a 978.5% price shift and an abnormality score of 30.3. This event accounted for 71.6% of export value in its peak year, suggesting a massive, possibly one-off transaction (e.g., a large vessel or fleet sent for breaking).
• A China export price shock in 2020 with a 641.1% shift, representing 16.5% of export value.

These shocks illustrate the inherently lumpy and volatile nature of ship-breaking trade: individual large-vessel transactions can dramatically distort annual figures.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in vessels for breaking up (CN 8908) has undergone significant structural change between 2015 and 2025. The EU has consolidated its position as a net exporter, with the trade surplus nearly doubling to €13.1 million, driven primarily by higher unit values rather than volume growth. The export market has become almost entirely dependent on Türkiye, whose ship-breaking industry has benefited from EU regulatory shifts favouring environmentally compliant recycling facilities. Within the EU, Italy has emerged as the dominant exporting Member State, overtaking a declining Germany. The market is characterised by extreme concentration — approaching monopolistic levels — and high volatility driven by the episodic, transaction-based nature of the ship-breaking industry. Importantly, these dynamics should be interpreted with caution: the highly concentrated, shock-prone structure of this trade means that single large transactions can materially alter annual statistics, and apparent trends may partly reflect the idiosyncratic timing of individual vessel disposals rather than durable market shifts.