Market evolution: Miscellaneous manufactured articles (CN 96) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of Combined Nomenclature heading 96 — Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles — for the European Union with non-EU partners over the period 2015–2025. The product group is broad, encompassing sanitary articles, brooms and brushes, writing instruments, lighters, vacuum flasks, and many other consumer and industrial goods (see full product definition). Over the decade, the EU's trade position in this category underwent a structural shift: exports grew modestly while imports surged, eroding a substantial trade surplus. Three major dynamics emerge from the data — China's dominant import expansion, the reshaping of UK–EU trade following Brexit, and a price-driven divergence between export value and volume.

1. The Erosion of the EU's Trade Surplus

The overall picture: modest export growth versus strong import expansion

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of CN 96 articles rose from €5.23 billion to €5.73 billion (+9.5%), while imports climbed from €3.76 billion to €5.43 billion (+44.5%). The EU's trade surplus collapsed from €1.48 billion in 2015 to just €0.30 billion in 2025 — a decline of 79.5%.

Export volumes fell while prices rose, masking stagnation in real terms

EU export quantity actually declined from 738,251 tonnes to 677,956 tonnes (−8.2%), while the average export price increased from €7,088/t to €8,453/t (+19.3%). In other words, the modest increase in export value was almost entirely driven by higher unit prices rather than greater physical output. By contrast, imports expanded in both volume (+35.1%, from 462,031 t to 624,285 t) and price (+7.0%).

Domestic production shifted toward higher-value output

EU production data tells a complementary story. Physical production fell by 20.9% (from 15.6 billion kg to 12.4 billion kg), yet production value rose by 34.7% (from €11.0 billion to €14.8 billion). This indicates that EU manufacturers shifted toward higher-value-added segments while ceding lower-value volume production to imports — consistent with the general pattern of intra-industry specialisation.

2. China's Ascendancy and Rising Import Concentration

China nearly doubled its share of EU imports

The single most striking trend is the growth of Chinese exports to the EU in this product group. EU imports from China surged from €1.86 billion in 2015 to €3.64 billion in 2025 — a near-doubling (+95.8%). China accounted for 49.5% of EU imports in 2015 and rose to approximately 67.1% by 2025, making it by far the dominant supplier.

Import concentration rose sharply, while export markets remained diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import partners increased by 67.5%, from 2,799 to 4,687, reflecting the growing dominance of China. By contrast, the export-side HHI rose only modestly from 781 to 856 (+9.7%), confirming that the EU sells to a much more diversified set of buyers. The import-side concentration reached a level typically associated with significant supplier dependency.

Vacuum flasks and pens drove import volume gains

At the product-segment level, the fastest-growing import category by value was CN 9617 (vacuum flasks), which expanded from €125 million to €525 million (+319%). In volume terms, it grew from 16,123 t to 54,162 t. CN 9603 (brooms and brushes) remained the single largest import category at €1.63 billion, while CN 9608 (writing instruments) rose to €835 million.

3. The UK–EU Trade Reorientation After Brexit

UK imports into the EU collapsed, while EU exports to the UK grew

The United Kingdom's position in EU trade of CN 96 goods was fundamentally restructured over this period. EU imports from the UK fell from €471 million to €201 million (−57.4%), dropping the UK from the second-largest import supplier to a marginal position. Simultaneously, EU exports to the UK increased from €1.11 billion to €1.34 billion (+20.4%), reinforcing the UK's role as the EU's top export destination.

The sharp drop in UK-to-EU imports is consistent with the UK leaving the EU single market and customs union: goods that previously moved freely now face customs formalities, rules of origin, and in some cases tariffs, making cross-border sourcing less competitive.

Export volatility varied dramatically across partners

The coefficient of variation of export values reveals that the UK was the most stable major export partner (CV = 0.04), reflecting deeply embedded supply chains. By contrast, exports to the Russian Federation showed very high volatility (CV = 0.46), and indeed fell from €499 million to €269 million (−46.2%), likely reflecting sanctions and geopolitical disruption following 2022.

Notably, UK import volatility is high (CV = 0.44) precisely because of the structural break: the sharp decline in trade volumes creates large year-on-year swings in an otherwise historically stable relationship.

EU member specialisation highlights Central European strengths

Within the EU, specialisation indices for 2025 reveal that Czechia (RCA = 2.22), Greece (1.75), and Poland (1.57) are the most specialised EU exporters in CN 96 articles. Germany, France, and Italy remain the largest exporters by absolute value, but their RCA values are closer to parity — indicating that these articles represent a smaller share of their overall export baskets.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in miscellaneous manufactured articles (CN 96) shifted from a comfortable €1.5 billion surplus to near balance. This was driven primarily by a surge in Chinese imports (+96%), which now account for roughly two-thirds of the EU's inbound trade in this category. Meanwhile, EU export growth was largely price-driven — volumes actually declined by 8.2% — and production shifted toward higher-value output. The post-Brexit reorientation of UK–EU trade is clearly visible in the data, with the UK's role as an import supplier collapsing while its position as the EU's top export market was reinforced. Looking at concentration risks, the sharp rise in import-side HHI (to nearly 4,700) signals a growing dependency on a single supplier, which may become a policy concern in the context of supply-chain resilience debates.