Market evolution: Carved materials and articles (CN 9602) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in products classified under customs code 9602 over the 2015–2025 period. This heading covers a diverse set of items, including worked vegetable or mineral carving materials, moulded or carved articles of wax, paraffin, natural resins or modelling pastes, and articles of unhardened gelatin. Despite its niche appearance, this product group exhibits notable structural changes in trade flows, partner composition, and pricing dynamics. The EU remains a net exporter in this category, but the trade balance has narrowed significantly over the decade, driven by rising import values and a geographic reorientation of sourcing patterns. The following sections explore these trends in detail.

1. The EU as a Mature Exporter Facing Squeezed Margins and Declining Volumes

This section examines the overall trade trajectory of CN 9602 at the aggregate EU level, focusing on the interplay between value, quantity, and unit price trends. While headline export values have remained relatively stable, a closer look reveals underlying pressures on volumes and a changing composition of trade.

1.1. Exports held up in value but volumes contracted

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU exports of CN 9602 grew modestly in value terms, rising from €97.5 million to €100.0 million (General Overview). However, this apparent stability masks a decline in exported volumes: quantity fell from 3,838 tonnes to 3,522 tonnes (−8.2%). The divergence is explained by a significant rise in unit export prices, which climbed from €25,386 per tonne to €28,379 per tonne (+11.8%). This pattern suggests that the EU is progressively exporting higher-value or more processed goods in this category rather than expanding its physical trade footprint.

1.2. Import growth outpaced exports, narrowing the trade surplus

EU imports of CN 9602 grew much faster than exports, rising from €49.6 million to €61.8 million (+24.6%) in value terms over the period (General Overview). Unlike exports, import quantities were virtually flat (2,863t to 2,856t, −0.2%), meaning the entire value increase was driven by rising import prices — from €17,312 to €21,641 per tonne (+25.0%). As a result, the EU's positive trade balance in this product group shrank from €47.9 million to €38.2 million, a decline of 20.3%. The gap between export and import unit prices also narrowed, indicating convergence in the composition of traded goods.

1.3. EU production shifted toward high-value, low-volume output

EU domestic production data reveals a dramatic structural transformation. Reported production quantity plummeted from 1.4 billion kilograms in 2015 to just 6.3 million kilograms in 2025 (−99.6%), while production value surged from €60 million to €267.8 million (+346.3%) (Production volumes). This suggests either a major reclassification of bulk items out of the CN 9602 heading, a shift toward artisanal and high-value-added production, or a combination of both. The concurrent rise in export unit prices is consistent with a move toward premium products.

2. A Geographic Reorientation of Trade Partners

This section analyses how the geographic composition of EU trade in CN 9602 evolved between 2015 and 2025, with particular emphasis on the rise of Asian suppliers, the impact of Brexit, and the reorientation of export destinations.

2.1. Asian suppliers gained dramatically in EU import markets

The most striking development on the import side is the rapid rise of Asian sourcing partners. China's share of EU imports of CN 9602 surged from €4.9 million to €21.5 million (+339.6%), making it by far the largest supplier by 2025 (Top partners). India followed a similar trajectory, growing from €1.6 million to €6.0 million (+273.1%), while Viet Nam experienced the most explosive growth of all, climbing from €0.4 million to €5.4 million (+1,229.9%). These three countries collectively illustrate a broader trend toward low-cost Asian sourcing in carved and moulded articles.

2.2. Brexit reshaped EU-UK trade flows in both directions

The United Kingdom's departure from the EU single market left a visible mark on CN 9602 trade. On the import side, EU imports from the UK collapsed from €4.2 million to €0.9 million (−77.8%), likely reflecting new customs barriers and rules of origin that made UK-sourced goods less competitive. On the export side, the UK remained the EU's single largest export destination but with a significantly reduced share: exports fell from €14.9 million to €9.9 million (−33.5%) (Top partners). This bilateral contraction is consistent with the broader trade-diverting effects of Brexit observed across many product categories.

2.3. Export destinations shifted eastward and southward

While EU exports to traditional Western partners weakened — Switzerland fell from €14.2 million to €7.7 million (−45.9%) and Australia from €0.7 million to €0.2 million (−64.8%) — exports to other markets grew strongly. Russia emerged as a major destination, with exports rising from €5.8 million to €19.4 million (+235.0%) until geopolitical disruptions intervened. Türkiye also grew from €10.9 million to €16.1 million (+47.9%) (Top partners). Within the EU, Poland emerged as a major export hub, with shipments surging from €1.5 million to €9.8 million (+555.1%), while Croatia also grew significantly (from €3.4 million to €15.9 million, +371.2%) (Top reporters). This indicates a decentralisation of EU export capacity away from traditional Western European hubs.

3. Market Concentration, Specialisation, and Volatility Patterns

This section examines structural features of the CN 9602 market — including concentration trends, specialisation profiles, and price volatility — to assess the resilience and vulnerability of the EU's position in this product category.

3.1. Import concentration increased, signalling growing supplier dependence

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports of CN 9602 rose from 1,398 to 1,803 (+28.9%) by value, and from 1,421 to 2,496 (+75.6%) by volume over the period (Concentration). While still below the 2,500 threshold typically associated with a "highly concentrated" market, this upward trend reflects the growing dominance of China as a single supplier. Export concentration also rose modestly (HHI value from 785 to 937, +19.4%), but remains well within competitive territory, indicating a diversified export base.

3.2. Specialisation profiles reveal a fragmented EU production landscape

RSCA (Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage) analysis for 2025 shows that export specialisation in CN 9602 is highly uneven across EU member states (Specialisation). Croatia (RSCA = 0.90, RCA = 20.0) and Romania (RSCA = 0.67, RCA = 5.2) are the most specialised exporters, though they account for relatively small shares of total EU exports (8.1% and 8.6% by production share respectively). Belgium, by contrast, holds the largest production share (41.7%) with a strong RSCA of 0.66. Germany, despite being a major producer (29.5% of production), shows a more modest specialisation profile (RSCA = 0.16). At the other end, countries like Latvia, Ireland, and Hungary show no meaningful specialisation in this product category, indicating that CN 9602 production is geographically concentrated in a handful of member states.

3.3. Price volatility is moderate overall, with isolated extreme events

Volatility analysis shows that most EU trade relationships in CN 9602 exhibit moderate price fluctuations, with coefficients of variation (CV) typically between 0.2 and 0.6 (Volatility). Notable exceptions include Australian exports (CV = 1.35) and UK imports (CV = 1.08), which are highly volatile. The most significant shock detected was a price spike in exports to Australia in 2020, with an abnormality score of 265.2 and a 5,061% price shift — likely reflecting a one-off, high-value shipment rather than a structural market change (Supply shocks). An import price shock from India in 2022 (abnormality 48.8, +76.9% shift) is more structurally significant, potentially reflecting post-pandemic supply chain disruptions or raw material cost increases.

Conclusion

The EU market for CN 9602 has undergone a quiet but meaningful transformation over the 2015–2025 decade. While the EU has maintained its position as a net exporter, the trade surplus has narrowed by 20% as imports — particularly from China, India, and Viet Nam — have grown far more rapidly than exports. Price dynamics reveal a market moving up the value chain: both export and import unit prices have risen substantially, and EU domestic production has shifted dramatically from high-volume, low-value output to high-value, low-volume manufacturing. Geographically, Brexit has materially disrupted EU-UK trade in both directions, while Eastern European member states like Poland and Croatia have emerged as dynamic new export hubs. Import concentration is rising, with China's dominant and growing role warranting attention from a supply resilience perspective. Overall, the CN 9602 market reflects broader themes in EU trade: a gradual ceding of volume-based competitiveness to Asian producers, a pivot toward higher-value specialisation, and a reconfiguration of trade flows shaped by geopolitical events such as Brexit.