Market evolution: Writing and drawing pencils (CN 9609) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in products classified under customs heading 9609 — encompassing pencils, crayons, pencil leads, pastels, drawing charcoals, writing or drawing chalks, and tailors' chalks — over the period 2015–2025. The analysis draws on Eurostat trade data at annual frequency, covering imports, exports, partner concentration, production indicators, and supply vulnerability. Over the decade, the EU's position in this market has undergone a structural transformation: import volumes have grown substantially while export values have declined, the trade deficit has more than doubled, and reliance on a single dominant supplier — China — has deepened considerably.

1. A Widening Deficit: Imports Up, Exports Down

The EU's trade balance deteriorated steadily over the period

The EU has been a consistent net importer of CN 9609 products throughout 2015–2025, but the deficit has widened markedly. In 2015, the trade deficit stood at approximately −€30.8 million; by 2025 it had reached −€69.8 million — a deterioration of 126.7%. The deficit was at its widest in a recent peak year, reaching approximately −€100.2 million, before partially recovering.

Import volumes grew much faster than export volumes

The divergence is even more pronounced when looking at physical quantities. EU import volumes rose from 27,260 tonnes to 33,631 tonnes (+23.4%), indicating a genuine increase in external sourcing rather than mere price effects. By contrast, export volumes grew only modestly from 12,521 to 12,902 tonnes (+3.0%), meaning the EU exported roughly the same physical volume while importing considerably more.

Unit prices moved in opposite directions

Average export unit prices fell from €10,001/t to €8,370/t (−16.3%), while import prices declined more moderately from €5,723/t to €5,286/t (−7.6%). The sharper decline in export prices suggests that EU producers faced intensifying competitive pressure or shifted toward lower-value destinations. Meanwhile, the relative stability of import prices — despite growing volumes — reflects the cost advantage of low-cost Asian suppliers.

2. China's Overwhelming Presence and Deepening Supply Concentration

China accounts for the lion's share of EU imports

Among EU import partners, China dominates overwhelmingly. In 2025, Chinese imports into the EU were valued at €136.8 million, representing roughly 77% of total extra-EU imports. This share has grown over the period: China's imports rose from €107.2 million in 2015 (+27.6%), peaking at €172.1 million in 2022.

The second-largest supplier, Indonesia, has seen its share erode significantly (−41.4%), as have the United Kingdom (−56.4%, likely related to Brexit reclassification effects) and South Korea (−59.5%). Meanwhile, Tunisia emerged from a negligible base to become a notable supplier (€1.3 million in 2025), reflecting growing North African manufacturing capacity for this product category.

Import-side concentration has increased substantially

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 4,839 in 2015 to 6,093 in 2025 (+25.9%). This level of concentration is well above the commonly cited threshold of 2,500 for a "highly concentrated" market and points to a growing dependence on China. The volume-based HHI is even higher, reaching 8,091 in 2025 (+30.0%). By contrast, the export-side HHI remained very low (507–511), confirming that EU exports are well diversified across many destination markets.

Export destinations are shifting geographically

The EU's top export destinations reveal two notable trends:

• Decline of Russia: EU exports to Russia fell from €7.3 million to €2.1 million (−71.6%), reflecting the impact of EU sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine and the broader geopolitical realignment.
• Growth in West Africa: Several West African markets — Togo (+229%), Burkina Faso (+495%), Côte d'Ivoire (+141%), and Cameroon (+65%) — have become increasingly important destinations, potentially linked to francophone educational demand and development programmes.
• UK remains the largest single destination at €16.2 million, though it too has declined (-13.5%).

3. EU Production Volumes Collapsed While Unit Values Rose Sharply

Physical output fell dramatically but revenue held up

EU production data (PRODCOM) reveals a striking transformation. The number of items produced in the EU collapsed from 2.04 billion units in 2015 to just 591 million units in 2025 — a decline of 71.1%. Despite this, production value actually increased from €152.0 million to €176.1 million (+15.8%).

This divergence implies a dramatic increase in average unit value — roughly a tripling — suggesting that EU manufacturers have shifted away from mass-market, low-cost pencils toward higher-quality, specialty, or premium products. This is consistent with the competitive logic of retaining segments where EU producers can command price premiums while ceding commodity production to Asian competitors.

Germany remains the EU's production and export powerhouse

Among EU reporters, Germany accounts for the largest share of both exports and imports. German specialisation indices confirm a revealed comparative advantage (RCA of 1.53), supported by its long-standing pencil manufacturing cluster (e.g., Faber-Castell, Staedtler, Lyra). Czechia (RCA 2.78) and Slovakia (RCA 1.90) show even stronger relative specialisation, though from smaller absolute bases.

On the import side, the Netherlands saw the strongest growth (+59.4%, from €17.6M to €28.0M), and Poland's imports nearly doubled (+93.1%, from €7.0M to €13.5M), possibly reflecting the country's growing role as a distribution hub or downstream consumer market.

Supply vulnerability indicators have deteriorated markedly

The EU's net import reliance surged from 7.9% in 2015 to 31.6% in 2025 — an increase of over 300%. Trade intensity also rose from 69.5% to 80.6%, indicating that the sector has become more exposed to international trade flows over the decade. These trends, combined with the high import concentration on China, suggest a sector that is increasingly dependent on external supply for its basic product needs, even as it retains a niche in higher-value segments.

Conclusion

The EU market for pencils, crayons, and related writing instruments (CN 9609) has undergone a clear structural shift between 2015 and 2025. Import volumes and values have grown, driven overwhelmingly by Chinese supply, while export values have declined and the trade deficit has more than doubled. EU domestic production has pivoted decisively toward higher unit-value products, with physical output declining by over 70% even as production revenue rose. The sector's import concentration on China has intensified, pushing the HHI well above standard thresholds for market concern, while net import reliance has quadrupled. On the export side, geopolitical disruptions (notably sanctions on Russia) and a reorientation toward West African markets are reshaping destination patterns. The overall picture is one of a mature EU industry that has retained competitiveness in premium niches but ceded volume production to low-cost Asian suppliers, at the cost of growing supply-chain vulnerability.