Market evolution: Scent sprays and mounts (CN 9616) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in CN 9616 — Scent sprays and similar toilet sprays, and mounts and heads therefor; powder puffs and pads for the application of cosmetics or toilet preparations over the period 2015–2025. The product heading covers two subcategories: scent sprays and their components (CN 961610), which account for the vast majority of trade, and powder puffs and cosmetic pads (CN 961620), a much smaller but growing segment. The decade under review witnessed a dramatic structural shift: the EU transformed from a strong net exporter into a near-balanced trading position, driven by collapsing exports and surging imports — with China emerging as the overwhelmingly dominant supplier. At the same time, EU exports reoriented geographically and moved upmarket in unit-price terms, revealing a dual dynamic of declining volumes but rising value-added positioning.

1. The EU's Vanishing Trade Surplus

1.1 A decade-long reversal in the trade balance

Over the period 2015–2025, the EU's extra-EU trade in CN 9616 underwent a profound rebalancing. In 2015, the EU enjoyed a trade surplus of approximately €156.5 million. By 2025, this had turned into a deficit of €14.8 million — a swing of over €171 million. The net import reliance metric captures this dramatically: it moved from −332% in 2015 (indicating heavy net export orientation) to −1.3% in 2025 (near equilibrium), a 99.6% change. The EU is no longer a significant net exporter of scent sprays and cosmetic accessories.

1.2 Declining exports in both value and volume

The contraction was driven primarily by falling exports. In value terms, extra-EU exports declined from €261.9 million (2015) to €179.8 million (2025), a drop of 31.3%. In volume, the fall was even steeper: exported quantity fell from 11,765 tonnes to 6,658 tonnes (−43.4%). The scent sprays subcategory (961610), which dominates exports, saw its volume shrink from 11,626 tonnes to 6,383 tonnes over the same period. By contrast, the small powder puffs segment (961620) saw modest export volume growth (from 139 to 274 tonnes), though it remains marginal in absolute terms.

1.3 Imports surged across both subcategories

Imports moved in the opposite direction, rising from €105.3 million to €194.6 million in value (+84.8%) and from 5,884 tonnes to 14,487 tonnes in volume (+146.2%). Scent spray imports (961610) more than doubled in quantity (4,694 to 10,874 tonnes), while powder puff imports (961620) tripled (1,190 to 3,613 tonnes). The two subcategories thus followed parallel growth trajectories on the import side, suggesting broad-based demand growth for these products within the EU.

2. China's Dominance and Rising Import Concentration

2.1 China became the EU's overwhelmingly largest supplier

The single most consequential structural change in this market was China's explosive growth as an import source. Chinese exports to the EU in CN 9616 surged from €48.5 million in 2015 to €163.2 million in 2025 — a rise of 236.3%. By 2025, China accounted for roughly 84% of the EU's total extra-EU imports in this product category, up from around 46% in 2015. This is consistent with China's well-documented role as the global manufacturing hub for cosmetic accessories, spray mechanisms, and plastic components.

2.2 Other suppliers lost ground or stagnated

While China grew, nearly all other major import partners saw their share erode. The United States fell from €15.2 million to €7.7 million (−49.2%), South Korea from €13.7 million to €8.1 million (−40.7%), and the United Kingdom from €14.8 million to €4.2 million (−71.8%, partly reflecting post-Brexit trade diversion). India and Türkiye remained small sources. Only Vietnam showed dramatic percentage growth (from €32K to €1.3M), but from a negligible base.

2.3 Import concentration rose sharply

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value more than doubled, rising from 2,718 in 2015 to 7,153 in 2025 (+163.1%). An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered highly concentrated; the 2025 level indicates extreme supplier dependence on China. Import concentration by volume similarly rose from 4,838 to 8,431 (+74.3%). This growing concentration increases the EU's vulnerability to supply disruptions, Chinese policy changes, or geopolitical tensions.

2.4 Falling import prices point to cost competition

A notable feature of the import surge is that it occurred alongside declining unit prices. Average import prices fell by 25.0% (from €17,902/t to €13,434/t) over the period. For scent sprays specifically (961610), the import price dropped from €14,562/t to €10,290/t (−29.4%). This is consistent with China's strategy of large-scale, low-cost manufacturing, and likely reflects both genuine cost advantages and competitive pricing to capture market share. The combination of rising volumes and falling prices is a classic pattern of import penetration by a cost-competitive supplier.

3. Shifting Export Geography and Upmarket Positioning

3.1 The UAE became the EU's top export destination

While EU exports overall declined, the geographic composition shifted dramatically. Exports to the United Arab Emirates surged from €8.4 million in 2015 to €41.7 million in 2025 (+396.1%), making the UAE the EU's single largest extra-EU export market by 2025. This likely reflects the UAE's role as a re-export and logistics hub for the Middle Eastern and South Asian luxury fragrance market, where European prestige brands command strong demand.

3.2 Traditional markets contracted sharply

By contrast, the EU's two largest historical export markets experienced steep declines. Exports to the United Kingdom fell from €75.8 million to €26.3 million (−65.3%), while exports to the United States dropped from €61.7 million to €22.7 million (−63.2%). These two markets alone accounted for over half of EU exports in 2015 but less than 27% by 2025. The UK decline is likely linked to Brexit-related trade friction, while the US decline may reflect increased local sourcing, tariff effects, and shifting supply chains.

3.3 France dominated but Spain emerged as a rising exporter

Among EU member states, France remained the largest exporter throughout the period, consistent with its dominant position in the global perfume and cosmetics industry. However, French extra-EU exports fell from €154.9 million to €55.7 million (−64.0%). Spain, by contrast, saw extraordinary growth from €6.6 million to €40.2 million (+507.1%), establishing itself as a significant second hub. Italy's exports remained relatively stable at around €55–62 million, while Germany's collapsed from €27.9 million to €7.3 million (−74.0%). Spain's rise likely reflects the growth of its domestic cosmetics manufacturing sector and increasing re-export activity.

3.4 EU export prices rose, indicating upmarket positioning

A striking counterpoint to declining export volumes is the rise in export unit prices. Average export prices increased from €22,253/t in 2015 to €27,001/t in 2025 (+21.3%). For scent sprays (961610), the price rose from €21,861/t to €26,501/t (+21.2%). This divergence — falling volumes but rising prices — suggests the EU is increasingly focusing on higher-value, premium-positioned products (luxury fragrance packaging, designer spray mechanisms) while ceding the mass market to lower-cost producers. The EU is trading less, but what it does trade commands higher prices.

3.5 Price shocks were concentrated in 2022

The volatility analysis reveals notable price shock events clustered around 2022. The most significant was an export price shock to the United States (abnormality score 11.4, with a +41.3% price shift), affecting a market that represented 29.6% of export value. A similar shock was detected for exports to Thailand (+47.1% price shift). These events are consistent with the global supply chain disruptions, energy cost spikes, and inflationary pressures that characterized 2022, which disproportionately affected manufactured goods shipping costs and input prices. On the import side, Vietnam showed the highest volatility (coefficient of variation 1.04), reflecting the erratic nature of a small but fast-growing supplier.

Conclusion

The EU market for scent sprays and cosmetic accessories (CN 9616) underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. The EU shifted from a position of strong net exporter (surplus of €156.5 million) to near trade balance, as imports nearly doubled in value while exports fell by nearly a third. This structural shift was overwhelmingly driven by China, which grew to capture roughly 84% of EU imports by 2025, creating a high degree of supplier concentration (import HHI of 7,153). On the export side, traditional European markets (UK, US, Russia) contracted sharply, while the UAE emerged as the leading destination — reflecting a reorientation toward Middle Eastern luxury fragrance demand. The simultaneous rise in EU export prices and decline in import prices points to a dual-track market: the EU increasingly competes at the premium end while importing cost-competitive products for the mass market. EU domestic production value also grew substantially (from €24.7 million to €108 million), suggesting some reshoring or capacity expansion, yet this was insufficient to offset the growing trade deficit. Going forward, the EU's heavy reliance on Chinese supply — amid rising geopolitical tensions — represents the most significant vulnerability in this market.