Market evolution: Inked ribbons and ink pads (CN 9612) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in CN 9612 — a category covering typewriter and similar ribbons, inked or otherwise prepared for giving impressions (including on spools or in cartridges), as well as ink-pads, whether or not inked, with or without boxes. The analysis spans from 2015 to 2025 and draws on the general trade overview.

Over the decade, the EU market for inked ribbons and ink-pads has undergone a marked structural transformation. Total imports fell by 37.2% (from €278.4 million to €174.8 million), while exports declined by a more modest 16.5% (from €165.6 million to €138.3 million). The trade deficit consequently narrowed from €112.8 million to €36.5 million, an improvement of 67.6%. This points to a market experiencing both demand-side contraction and a meaningful shift in the EU's competitive position — driven by evolving technology, changing global supply chains, and major geopolitical events.

I. A shrinking market increasingly served by EU production

Overall trade volumes have contracted substantially

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU saw a significant decline in the physical volume of trade in CN 9612 products. Import volumes fell from 16,848 tonnes to 11,705 tonnes (−30.5%), while export volumes dropped from 6,530 tonnes to 5,337 tonnes (−18.3%). Both flows reached their lowest levels in the dataset during 2024–2025, suggesting the contraction has not yet stabilised.

Source: General trade overview

This contraction is consistent with the long-term secular decline of typewriter ribbons and traditional ink-based impression products, driven by digitalisation and the widespread transition to electronic document workflows. However, the category still encompasses ink-pads and certain industrial or specialised ribbon applications, which explains why trade remains at a non-trivial level.

EU domestic production has expanded dramatically

A striking counterpoint to the trade contraction is the surge in EU production. Production quantity rose from 30.2 million items in 2015 to 130.0 million items in 2025, an increase of 330.9%. Over the same period, production value grew from €175.9 million to €308.0 million (+75.1%). Notably, the peak production volume reached nearly 500 million items during the period, with a subsequent scaling back.

Source: Production volumes

The fact that production volume grew over fourfold while the value grew by 75% implies that average unit values in production have fallen — suggesting the EU has ramped up output of lower-value, higher-volume items (likely standard ink-pads or commodity ribbons). This domestic production surge is the primary explanation for the dramatic collapse in net import reliance, which fell from 42.3% in 2015 to just 5.6% in 2025 (−86.8%), as documented in the net import reliance data. The EU has effectively moved from being a significant net importer to near self-sufficiency in this product category.

Trade intensity and export propensity have declined in tandem

Trade intensity — the sum of imports and exports relative to production — fell from 86.0% to 66.2% (−23.0%). Export propensity — exports as a share of production — declined from 66.5% to 48.0% (−27.8%). These parallel declines are consistent with a market where the EU is producing more, importing less, and also exporting a smaller share of a larger production base. In other words, EU manufacturers are increasingly oriented toward serving the internal market rather than relying on trade.

II. Post-Brexit and geopolitical realignment of trade partners

The collapse of UK trade flows dominates the partner picture

The single most dramatic structural shift in EU trade for CN 9612 is the collapse of flows with the United Kingdom following Brexit. On the import side, EU imports from the UK fell from €130.5 million in 2015 to just €22.4 million in 2025, a decline of 82.8%. This was by far the largest absolute decline of any partner, and the UK went from being the EU's dominant import source (accounting for roughly 47% of imports) to a much smaller player.

On the export side, EU exports to the UK declined from €60.4 million to €35.9 million (−40.6%), meaning the UK also lost importance as an export destination, though it remained the EU's top export market in value terms throughout the period.

Source: Partners data

The volatility coefficient for UK imports was 0.73 — the highest among the top import partners for this flow — reflecting the sharp, discontinuous nature of the Brexit-related trade disruption. While some of this decline may predate the UK's formal departure (as supply chains anticipated the change), the magnitude strongly suggests a structural reorganisation rather than a cyclical fluctuation.

Asian suppliers have filled the gap left by the UK

As UK-sourced imports collapsed, Asian suppliers gained market share. China's exports to the EU in this category grew from €21.7 million to €32.3 million (+48.9%), South Korea surged from €3.1 million to €14.0 million (+350.7%), and Malaysia expanded from €9.1 million to €13.5 million (+48.3%). Indonesia, starting from a negligible base of €31,600, reached €1.8 million — a percentage increase of over 5,700%.

These shifts suggest that EU importers, cut off from a major UK supply base, diversified toward East and Southeast Asian producers. This is consistent with the broader trend of supply chain "friend-shoring" or simply cost-driven reorientation toward established Asian manufacturing hubs. Japan, already a significant supplier, maintained its position with relatively stable volumes (declining only 10.5%), suggesting it served as a reliable anchor supplier.

The import market has become significantly less concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value fell from 2,869 to 1,865 (−35.0%). In 2015, the UK alone accounted for nearly half of all imports, creating a highly concentrated structure. By 2025, with the UK's share drastically reduced and multiple Asian suppliers gaining ground, the import base became far more diversified. This diversification reduces supply-chain vulnerability to any single partner, though it introduces new dependencies on Asian manufacturers.

EU exports have been reshaped by sanctions and shifting demand

On the export side, the most striking development is the near-total collapse of exports to the Russian Federation — from €7.7 million in 2015 to just €16,000 in 2025 (−99.8%). This is almost certainly a consequence of EU sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as the decline accelerated from 2022 onward.

Exports to the United States also fell significantly, from €26.4 million to €13.6 million (−48.6%), representing the largest absolute decline among export destinations. By contrast, the United Arab Emirates emerged as a growth market, with exports more than doubling from €4.5 million to €10.2 million (+127.4%). Türkiye and Switzerland also showed moderate growth (+18.0% and +20.2% respectively).

Source: Partners data

The export HHI fell from 1,703 to 1,003 (−41.1%), indicating that EU exporters have also diversified their destination markets — a logical response to the loss of the Russian market and declining US demand.

III. Price dynamics, supply shocks, and divergent EU member specialisation

Export prices have held up better than import prices

Despite the volume contraction, export prices for CN 9612 increased modestly by 2.2% (from €25,356 to €25,907 per tonne), while import prices declined by 9.6% (from €16,522 to €14,935 per tonne). The widening price gap — exports now command a 73% premium over imports, up from 53% in 2015 — suggests that the EU is increasingly specialised in higher-value-added segments of the product range, while importing lower-cost (predominantly Asian) goods.

At the sub-product level, the divergence is even more pronounced. Ink-pad exports (CN 961220) commanded a unit price of €48,813 per tonne in 2025, compared to just €18,454 for imports — a ratio of 2.6:1. This suggests that EU-made ink-pads are targeted at premium or specialised applications, while imports serve the mass market.

Isolated price shocks have affected specific trade flows

The volatility analysis reveals several notable supply shocks:

• Ukraine exports (2021): A price shock with an abnormality score of 57.5 and a +36.3% price shift, likely reflecting supply disruptions associated with the onset of conflict.
• China imports (2022): An abnormality of 11.3 with a +31.9% price increase, coinciding with post-COVID supply chain disruptions and rising shipping costs.
• Switzerland exports (2022): A more moderate price shock (+16.3%), potentially linked to currency movements or demand shifts.

These shocks were localised and did not cascade across the broader market, consistent with a product category where supply chains, while affected by macro events, are not critically vulnerable to single points of failure.

EU member states show markedly different trade profiles

The intra-EU distribution of imports and exports reveals significant divergence among member states:

Source: Reporters data

Germany's imports collapsed by 71.2% — the largest decline of any member state — while its exports actually grew by 15.8%, pointing to a significant rebalancing of Germany's role from importer to (relative) producer-exporter. France presents the mirror image: imports more than doubled (+114.2%), while exports grew only modestly (+11.9%). Belgium's exports plummeted by 96.4%, a dramatic collapse that may reflect the relocation or cessation of production capacity. Ireland, conversely, saw explosive export growth (+476.6%), rising from €1.6 million to €9.5 million — potentially reflecting the establishment or expansion of manufacturing operations by multinational firms.

The specialisation data confirms this picture: France and Greece show the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA of 3.97 and 4.38 respectively), while Bulgaria, Cyprus, and Finland are almost entirely absent from production in this category.

Conclusion

The EU market for inked ribbons and ink-pads (CN 9612) has undergone a profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. While the product category itself is in long-term secular decline due to digitalisation, the EU has paradoxically increased domestic production dramatically — by over 330% in volume terms — leading to a collapse in import dependence. Net import reliance fell from 42% to under 6%, marking a decisive shift toward self-sufficiency.

The most consequential external shock was Brexit, which disrupted the EU's largest single import relationship (the UK) and triggered a major reorientation of supply chains toward Asian suppliers, particularly China, South Korea, and Malaysia. On the export side, EU sanctions on Russia and declining US demand forced exporters to seek new markets, with the UAE, Türkiye, and Switzerland emerging as growth destinations.

Price dynamics suggest the EU is moving upmarket in its export profile, while increasingly sourcing lower-cost goods from Asia. The market has also become significantly more diversified, with concentration indices falling sharply for both imports and exports — a positive development for supply resilience.

The divergent performance of EU member states — with Germany and France emerging as the dominant players, and Ireland as a surprising growth story — points to an industry undergoing geographic consolidation around a smaller number of specialised production hubs. Overall, CN 9612 illustrates how even a declining product category can become a site of strategic repositioning in response to geopolitical disruption and evolving competitive dynamics.