Market evolution: Writing instruments (CN 9608) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in writing instruments classified under Combined Nomenclature code 9608, which encompasses ball-point pens, felt-tipped and porous-tipped pens and markers, fountain pens, propelling pencils, pen-holders, parts, and related articles. The analysis covers the period from 2015 to 2025 and is based on trade data between the European Union and non-EU countries. Over this decade, the EU writing-instrument market underwent a structural transformation: the Union shifted from a modest trade surplus to a significant deficit, driven by surging imports—predominantly from China—combined with declining export volumes. Understanding these dynamics provides insight into broader trends in European manufacturing competitiveness, supply-chain dependence, and consumer demand shifts in a traditionally low-tech but globally traded product category.

1. From Surplus to Deficit: The EU's Deepening Trade Imbalance

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the reversal of the EU's trade balance in writing instruments. In 2015, the EU recorded a trade surplus of €27.7 million; by 2025, this had become a deficit of €252.2 million—a swing of over €280 million.

1.1 Imports grew in both volume and value while export prices rose

The trade overview reveals a clear pattern: import volumes surged by over 76%, far outpacing the 26% increase in import value, indicating that the average price of imported writing instruments fell substantially. Conversely, EU export volumes contracted by more than a fifth, yet export unit values rose by 7.7%, suggesting a shift toward higher-value, niche products on the export side.

1.2 The COVID-19 dip and subsequent import surge amplified the gap

Import volumes dipped to 43,053 tonnes in 2020—likely reflecting pandemic-related disruptions—but then accelerated sharply to 79,744 tonnes by 2025. This post-pandemic surge, which more than offset the temporary decline, was a major factor in widening the deficit. Export volumes, by contrast, fell from 29,202 tonnes in 2019 to 18,551 tonnes in 2025, with no comparable recovery.

1.3 Net import reliance more than quintupled

The EU's net import reliance rose from 2.9% in 2015 to 14.9% in 2025 (a 407% increase). In 2017 and 2018, the EU was still a net exporter (negative values of −9.3% and −7.5% respectively), but by 2025 the dependence on external suppliers had become structurally embedded. This trajectory is consistent with broader European deindustrialisation patterns in low-to-medium-tech consumer goods.

2. China's Dominance and Shifting Trade Partnerships

The geographic composition of EU trade in writing instruments changed markedly over the decade, with China consolidating its position as the overwhelmingly dominant supplier while traditional partners saw mixed fortunes.

2.1 China became the source of nearly two-thirds of EU imports by value

China's import value grew from €304 million to €519 million, capturing 62% of all EU writing-instrument imports by 2025. The partner concentration HHI for imports rose from 2,805 to 4,281 (+52.6%), a level indicating moderate-to-high concentration—driven almost entirely by the growing weight of China.

2.2 The UK shrank on both sides of the ledger after Brexit

The United Kingdom experienced dramatic declines in both directions: EU imports from the UK fell 59.5% (from €42 million to €17 million), and EU exports to the UK dropped 16.5% (from €118.5 million to €99 million). The UK remained the EU's largest export destination, but its share eroded. The sharp decline in imports from the UK is consistent with post-Brexit trade friction and the reclassification of the UK as a non-EU country in the dataset.

2.3 Emerging suppliers gained ground while traditional ones stalled

Tunisia emerged as a notable new import source, growing from €5.3 million to €19.6 million (+272%). On the export side, Mexico became a fast-growing destination, rising from €17.3 million to €28.2 million (+62.7%). Meanwhile, exports to Russia fell from €25.6 million to €10.8 million (−57.7%), likely reflecting sanctions and geopolitical disruptions from 2022 onward. Exports to the United States also contracted by 28.2%, from €83.5 million to €60 million.

3. The Felt-Tip Surge: Product-Segment Dynamics Underlying the Aggregate Trends

Beneath the headline figures, the product-level breakdown reveals that the aggregate trends were driven by sharply divergent trajectories across the subcategories of CN 9608.

3.1 Felt-tipped pens and markers dominated import growth

The product segment breakdown shows that felt-tipped pens and markers were the primary engine of import volume growth. Import volumes in this category more than tripled, from 12,658 tonnes to 41,086 tonnes, making it the single largest import category by weight by 2025 (surpassing ball-point pens). Notably, the unit import price for felt-tipped pens fell from €10,617/t to €6,690/t (−37%), indicating intensifying price competition and a likely shift toward mass-market, lower-cost sourcing.

3.2 EU exports of felt-tipped pens and fountain pens declined sharply

On the export side, felt-tipped pen volumes fell from 10,807 tonnes to 9,168 tonnes (−15.2%), while fountain pen exports collapsed from 588 tonnes to 334 tonnes (−43.1%). Ball-point pen exports also declined, from 7,988 tonnes to 6,332 tonnes (−20.7%). The EU's export strength increasingly concentrated in higher unit-value segments: fountain pens, for instance, commanded an export unit price of approximately €309,000/t (reflecting their premium positioning), even as volumes shrank.

3.3 EU production remained stable, masking a shift in trade orientation

EU production of writing instruments (measured in supplementary units) was roughly stable at around 5.2 billion items between 2015 and 2025, while production value edged up from €1.09 billion to €1.13 billion (+3.7%). However, the trade intensity of the sector increased from 58.7% to 73.2%, and export propensity rose from 40.7% to 54.0%. This implies that while EU factories continued to produce at similar volumes, the domestic market was increasingly supplied by imports, and EU production was increasingly oriented toward export markets—yet export volumes were nonetheless falling, suggesting that production itself may have begun to shift toward intra-EU consumption or that product-mix effects (higher-value, lower-volume items) were at play.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU writing-instrument market underwent a pronounced structural shift. The Union moved from near-equilibrium trade to a quarter-billion-euro deficit, powered by a 76% surge in import volumes—overwhelmingly from China—against a backdrop of declining export quantities. The felt-tip and marker segment was the single largest driver of import growth, with volumes tripling and unit prices falling sharply, consistent with commoditisation and cost-driven sourcing from Asia. EU exports, while declining in volume, showed rising unit values, pointing to a concentration in premium segments such as fountain pens.

The rising import concentration (HHI from 2,805 to 4,281) and net import reliance (from 2.9% to 14.9%) highlight a growing dependency on a single dominant supplier—China—which now accounts for over 60% of EU imports by value. This concentration, combined with volatile bilateral relationships (as illustrated by supply shocks affecting the UK, India, and Türkiye), presents a potential vulnerability for EU supply security in this product category.

Looking ahead, the data suggests that the EU writing-instrument industry is consolidating around premium, high-margin niches while ceding mass-market segments to Asian producers. Policymakers and industry stakeholders may wish to monitor this trajectory, particularly given the combination of rising import dependence, declining export competitiveness in volume terms, and the increasing concentration of supply sources.