Market evolution: Carved animal materials (CN 9601) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in worked animal carving materials (customs code 9601) over the 2015–2025 period. The data reveals a fundamental transformation: the EU has shifted from being a net exporter to a significant net importer of these goods. This structural change is characterised by a collapse in export value, a surge in import prices, a severe decline in domestic production, and a growing vulnerability to external supply shocks. The analysis below explores these interconnected dynamics.

1. The Great Reversal: From Net Exporter to Net Importer

The most striking feature of the period is the complete reversal of the EU's trade balance. In 2015, the EU had a positive balance of approximately €5.4 million. By 2025, this had turned into a deficit of nearly €15 million. This shift was driven by divergent trends in export and import values.

1.1 The Collapse of Export Value

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU exports fell by 60.5%, from €25.4 million to €10.0 million. This decline was not due to a fall in the physical volume exported (which actually increased slightly by 7.1%), but was entirely a result of plummeting unit export prices, which dropped by 63.1%. This indicates that the EU was exporting lower-value goods or facing severe price competition.

1.2 Resilient and Shifting Import Demand

In contrast, the value of imports increased by 25.4%, from €20.0 million to €25.0 million. Crucially, this growth occurred despite a 51.8% collapse in import volume (from 1,666 tonnes to 804 tonnes). The driving force was a 158.6% surge in import prices, highlighting increasing sourcing costs and a possible shift towards higher-value imported finished goods.

1.3 Divergent Fates of Top Partners

The composition of trade partners underwent significant shifts. On the import side, India strengthened its position as a top supplier (+33%), while the Philippines' share declined. Notably, imports from Fiji collapsed entirely. For exports, Hong Kong—formerly the EU's largest market—saw a 75% drop in value, while exports to the United States nearly doubled. This suggests a redirection of trade flows away from traditional Asian hubs towards North America.

2. Structural Transformation: De-industrialisation and Specialisation

The trade balance reversal is underpinned by a profound structural change within the EU, marked by a severe contraction in domestic production and a reshaping of the industry's geographic footprint.

2.1 The Collapse of EU Production

PRODCOM data reveals a staggering decline in the EU's domestic production capacity. Between the first and last available data points:

• Production quantity fell by 86.5%, from 4,000 tonnes to just 540 tonnes.
• Production value fell by 75.0%, from €120 million to €20 million.

This indicates that the EU's domestic industry for these materials has nearly vanished, explaining the surge in import reliance and the decline in export volumes.

2.2 A Fragmented and Concentrated Production Landscape

Despite the overall decline, production remains unevenly concentrated among EU members. In 2025, specialisation was highest in Central European countries like Hungary (RSCA: 0.63), Slovakia (0.58), and Czechia (0.47). Germany, while having a large overall share of EU production (42.6%), showed more moderate specialisation (RSCA: 0.34). Conversely, many larger Western and Southern EU economies like Lithuania, Ireland, and Finland showed near-zero specialisation, suggesting they have exited this niche manufacturing.

2.3 Import Market Becoming More Concentrated

The EU's import sources have become more concentrated over time, increasing supply risk. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value rose by 36.2%, from 1,231 to 1,676, indicating that a larger share of import value is coming from a smaller number of countries.

3. Volatility, Shocks, and Growing Vulnerability

The market's structural transformation has increased its exposure to external shocks and amplified price volatility, creating new vulnerabilities for the EU.

3.1 High Price Volatility in Key Export Markets

EU export flows to several key destinations have been highly volatile. The coefficient of variation (CV) for export values to Morocco (2.28), Colombia (2.96), and the United Arab Emirates (1.70) is very high. More concerning are the detected shock events, which include massive price spikes for exports to Taiwan (1,097% in 2021) and Hong Kong (603% in 2019). Such volatility points to thin, illiquid markets for these niche goods.

3.2 The EU's Deepening Import Dependency

The most critical vulnerability metric is the net import reliance ratio, which measures imports as a share of apparent consumption (production + imports - exports). This ratio:

• Started at 19.0% in 2015.
• Peaked at 44.8% in 2025, a 135.9% increase.
• Even dipped into negative territory (-5.5% in one year), confirming the EU was previously a net supplier to the world.

This surge in dependency, coupled with collapsing domestic production, signifies a fundamental loss of strategic autonomy in this product category.

3.3 The Ivory Sub-segment: A Market Apart

The product segment breakdown shows that the non-ivory sub-category (960190) dominates all trade flows. Ivory (960110) represents a tiny, volatile fraction:

• In 2025, ivory made up only 1.1% of import value and 2.2% of export value.
• Import volumes for ivory are minuscule (e.g., 2.85 tonnes in 2025) and erratic.
• Export prices for ivory (960110) are exceptionally volatile and often diverge wildly from non-ivory goods, reflecting the unique regulatory and market constraints around its trade.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU market for worked animal carving materials (CN 9601) underwent a radical transformation. The EU transitioned from a net exporter with a nascent production base to a major net importer with a decimated domestic industry. This shift was driven by an 86% collapse in production volume and a concurrent 60% fall in export value. The market is now characterised by high import dependency (44.8% of consumption), rising import prices, and significant trade volatility. The concentration of import sources and frequent price shocks have increased the EU's economic vulnerability in this niche sector. While trade in ivory remains minimal, the broader category's evolution highlights a case of near-complete de-industrialisation within the European Union.