Market evolution: Travel toilet sets (CN 9605) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the EU's external trade in travel sets for personal toilet, sewing, or shoe and clothes cleaning (Combined Nomenclature code 9605) over the period 2015–2025. These products, encompassing pre-packed toiletry and sewing kits commonly sold to travellers or distributed in hospitality settings, occupy a niche within miscellaneous manufactured articles (CN 96). Despite their modest share of total EU merchandise trade, the decade reveals a striking structural transformation: the EU has become dramatically more dependent on imports, import supply has concentrated heavily around China, and intra-EU production of these sets has largely collapsed. Export flows, meanwhile, have surged in both value and unit price, increasingly directed toward conflict-affected or humanitarian-aid destinations. The analysis draws on trade value (EUR), quantity (net mass in tonnes), derived unit prices, partner concentration indices, specialisation measures, and production data to build a coherent picture of these dynamics.

1. A market increasingly dominated by imports from China

1.1 Import growth outpaces a stagnant domestic production base

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's total imports of CN 9605 goods grew from €26.7 million to €40.5 million in value (+52.0%) and from 3,019 tonnes to 4,185 tonnes in volume (+38.6%). Unit import prices edged up from approximately €8,827/t to €9,682/t (+9.7%), indicating that the price component contributed only modestly to the value increase — most of the growth was volume-driven (General Overview).

Simultaneously, EU production of CN 9605 tells a starkly different story. Declared production quantity rose from roughly 997,000 items to 1,800,000 items over the period (+80.6%), yet the corresponding production value collapsed from €18.3 million to just €1.5 million (−91.8%). This divergence suggests that the items still produced within the EU have shifted toward very low-cost, high-volume formats — likely simple airline or hotel amenity kits — while higher-value travel toilet set manufacturing has migrated offshore.

1.2 China has consolidated its role as the near-monopoly supplier

Among the EU's import partners, China stands out overwhelmingly. Imports from China grew from €19.8 million to €33.4 million (+68.8%), representing approximately 82.5% of all extra-EU imports by value in 2025. China's low coefficient of variation (0.25) further confirms its role as the single stable anchor of the EU's supply base. No other partner comes close: the second-largest supplier by end-period value is Cambodia (€3.8 million), which has grown from virtually zero in 2015 — a nearly infinite percentage increase reflecting the emergence of a new, though still secondary, sourcing geography.

1.3 Brexit and supply-chain reconfiguration reshape the partner landscape

One of the most visible structural shifts is the near-disappearance of the United Kingdom as a supplier. EU imports from the UK fell from €4.8 million in 2015 to €0.7 million in 2025 (−85.5%). This dramatic decline coincides with the UK's departure from the EU Customs Union in January 2021, which introduced customs declarations, rules-of-origin requirements, and potential tariff friction for products re-exported through the UK. Previously, a portion of China-origin goods may have transited through UK distribution hubs; post-Brexit, these flows appear to have been rerouted — either directly from China or via new intermediary locations.

In parallel, Cambodia and Mexico emerged as notable new suppliers, each registering explosive growth from near-zero baselines. Cambodia's rise likely reflects the broader trend of labour-intensive manufacturing relocating from China to Southeast Asian countries, partly driven by cost advantages and partly by the EU's Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP). Mexico's appearance, though more modest, may connect to nearshoring strategies or transhipment of Asian-origin goods through North American logistics networks.

2. Export surge driven by unit-price appreciation and humanitarian-oriented destinations

2.1 EU exports have more than tripled in value while volume grew more moderately

EU exports of CN 9605 tell a remarkable growth story: total export value rose from €6.0 million to €15.5 million (+159.3%), while export volume grew only from 1,231 tonnes to 1,575 tonnes (+27.9%). The remaining gap was filled by a sharp increase in unit export prices, from €4,858/t to €9,845/t (+102.7%). This doubling of unit prices is significant: it suggests that the EU's export basket has shifted toward higher-value, possibly more differentiated or branded travel sets, or that pricing has responded to inflationary pressures and supply-chain cost increases since 2020.

2.2 Export destinations reveal a shift toward conflict and aid contexts

The top export partners by 2025 include several countries experiencing conflict, post-conflict recovery, or large-scale humanitarian operations:

The surge to Afghanistan (from €196 to €2.42 million) and the strong growth to Lebanon, Sudan, and Ethiopia are consistent with EU humanitarian aid and refugee-response programmes distributing hygiene kits. Travel toilet sets are a standard component of non-food-item (NFI) packages distributed by UNHCR, UNICEF, and the ICRC. The extremely high volatility coefficients (CV > 2.0) for Afghanistan and Lebanon exports confirm that these are lumpy, programme-driven flows rather than steady commercial demand. Meanwhile, Syria — a major recipient in the early period — collapsed by 99.9%, likely reflecting the tightening of EU sanctions regimes and the fragmentation of delivery channels after 2019.

2.3 Netherlands has emerged as the EU's leading re-export hub

Among EU Member States, the Netherlands experienced by far the most dramatic export growth: from €282,665 to €4,694,576 (+1,560.8%). This positions the Netherlands as the EU's largest exporter of CN 9605 products by 2025, overtaking traditional players like Spain (€2.7 million) and Germany (€0.9 million). The Netherlands' dominant role likely reflects the importance of Rotterdam as a logistics gateway and the presence of large humanitarian procurement and distribution organisations (e.g., the International Committee of the Red Cross has significant European logistics operations). Similarly, Czechia saw exports rise from €225,739 to €2,224,274 (+885.3%), suggesting the development of a local assembly or re-packaging hub serving Eastern European and Eurasian destinations.

3. Rising structural vulnerability as import dependency nears total reliance

3.1 Net import reliance has doubled, approaching near-total dependency

Perhaps the most consequential trend in the data is the sharp rise in the EU's net import reliance. This indicator — measuring the share of domestic consumption met by net imports — climbed from 46.4% in 2015 to 93.8% in 2025 (+102.3%), peaking at 98.9% at one point during the period. In practical terms, nearly all travel toilet sets consumed in the EU now originate from outside the bloc. This degree of dependency, while perhaps less strategically sensitive than for critical raw materials or semiconductors, nonetheless represents a meaningful exposure to supply-chain disruptions — as the COVID-19 pandemic illustrated for many consumer goods in 2020–2021.

3.2 Import concentration has intensified, amplifying single-source risk

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 5,887 to 7,103 (+20.7%). An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered to indicate a highly concentrated market; the EU's import market for CN 9605 is well above that threshold and becoming more so. This reflects China's growing dominance discussed in Section 1. By contrast, the export HHI remains low (rising only from 880 to 941), consistent with the EU's export destinations being diverse — spanning the UK, Afghanistan, Ukraine, and many other countries.

3.3 Intra-EU specialisation is uneven, with few Member States holding comparative advantage

Analysis of Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) for 2025 shows that only a handful of EU Member States display meaningful specialisation in CN 9605 products:

Lithuania's exceptionally high RCA (10.52) likely reflects a small domestic economy with a disproportionately large travel-set assembly or re-export sector, rather than absolute production scale. Spain and the Netherlands together account for over a third of declared EU production value, but even their absolute volumes are small relative to imports. At the other end of the spectrum, countries like Luxembourg, Croatia, Estonia, Romania, and Finland show strong negative RSCA values, indicating they are net importers with essentially no domestic production specialisation in this product category.

Conclusion

The EU market for travel toilet sets (CN 9605) has undergone a fundamental structural transformation over 2015–2025. The most striking feature is the near-complete shift from domestic production to import dependency: net import reliance doubled from 46% to 94%, while declared EU production value collapsed by 92%. This import dependency is overwhelmingly channelled through China, which supplied 82.5% of extra-EU imports by value in 2025, driving a significant increase in supply concentration (HHI rising above 7,000). The post-Brexit disappearance of the United Kingdom as a transit and supply hub, and the emergence of Cambodia and Mexico as alternative sourcing locations, illustrate the broader reconfiguration of globalised supply chains in response to trade-policy changes.

On the export side, the EU's outbound trade grew robustly — more than tripling in value to €15.5 million — but this growth was largely driven by unit-price increases rather than volume expansion, and was disproportionately oriented toward humanitarian and conflict-affected destinations such as Afghanistan, Lebanon, and Sudan. The Netherlands has emerged as the dominant EU export hub, probably reflecting its role as a logistics platform for international aid organisations.

While travel toilet sets are neither strategically critical nor high-technology products, the degree of import concentration and supply-chain exposure they exhibit mirrors patterns seen across many consumer-goods categories in the EU. Any disruption to Chinese manufacturing or shipping — whether from geopolitical tensions, pandemic-related shutdowns, or logistics bottlenecks — would leave the EU with limited short-term alternatives. The diversification toward Cambodia and other Southeast Asian origins is a step, but remains marginal relative to China's dominant share.