Market evolution: Mannequins and display figures (CN 9618) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in tailors' dummies, lay figures, automata and animated displays used for shop window dressing (Combined Nomenclature code 9618) over the period 2015–2025. The product scope covers a niche but economically meaningful segment of the visual merchandising industry, serving the fashion, retail and exhibition sectors. Over this eleven-year window, the EU market for CN 9618 has undergone significant structural shifts: trade volumes have contracted sharply, unit values have risen, the EU's position has tilted from slight net-exporter to net-importer, and major geopolitical and pandemic events have reshaped supplier and buyer relationships. The following sections analyse these dynamics in detail.

1. A decade of shrinking volumes but rising unit values

1.1 Both imports and exports have contracted substantially

Over the full period, EU trade in CN 9618 declined across all main aggregates. Imports fell from €91.5 million to €72.6 million (−20.7%) in value and from 9,624 tonnes to 6,240 tonnes (−35.2%) in volume. Exports declined from €79.5 million to €60.6 million (−23.7%) in value and from 3,143 tonnes to 1,718 tonnes (−45.3%) in volume. In both cases, the volume contraction outpaced the value contraction, indicating that higher unit prices partially offset the decline in trade.

The minimum values in both flows correspond to the 2020 pandemic year, when retail closures and disrupted supply chains severely depressed demand for display mannequins.

1.2 Unit values rose meaningfully, especially for exports

Despite falling volumes, average unit values increased across the period. Export prices rose from €25,294/t to €35,300/t (+39.6%), while import prices rose from €9,511/t to €11,638/t (+22.4%).

The persistent price differential — EU exports are roughly three times more expensive per tonne than imports — reflects a structural segmentation of the market. The EU tends to export premium, often customised or design-intensive mannequins, while importing higher volumes of standardised, lower-cost figures primarily from China. The faster rise in export prices (+39.6% vs. +22.4%) may indicate a continued move by EU manufacturers up the value chain, towards niche, high-end products.

1.3 The trade balance turned structurally negative

The EU ran a trade deficit in CN 9618 throughout the entire period, starting at approximately −€12.0 million in 2015 and ending at −€12.0 million in 2025 (essentially unchanged in absolute terms). However, the trajectory was not linear: the deficit widened to a peak of nearly −€28.0 million around 2020–2021, before narrowing back. Net import reliance swung from −4.4% in 2015 to 12.8% in 2025, confirming a structural shift towards greater import dependency despite the overall contraction of trade volumes.

2. A concentrated import market and a diversifying export base

2.1 China dominates EU imports, though its share has eroded

China was by far the largest source of EU imports throughout the period, starting at €75.0 million in 2015 (around 82% of total imports) and ending at €56.3 million in 2025. While this represents a −24.9% decline, China's dominance remains overwhelming. The import concentration HHI, while declining from 6,752 to 6,140 (−9.1%), remains very high, indicating that the EU's sourcing structure is heavily tilted towards a single supplier.

Other notable import origins include:

The near-total collapse of imports from Vietnam (−99.0%) is striking and likely reflects the re-routing of supply chains that briefly diversified away from China before reverting. The modest growth of imports from Türkiye and the United States suggests limited diversification.

2.2 EU exports are geographically diversified but show uneven trends

EU exports to non-EU countries were spread across a wider set of partners, with a much lower concentration HHI (rising from 737 to 887, still modest). The top destinations in 2025 were:

The most dramatic shift was the collapse of exports to Russia (−83.0%), almost certainly linked to the sanctions regime imposed following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Switzerland and Norway also recorded notable declines, while the United Kingdom and United States — the two largest non-EU markets — remained broadly stable.

2.3 Within the EU, production and specialisation shifted towards Southern and Baltic Europe

EU member state data reveals divergent national trajectories. Germany and Italy — traditionally the largest EU producers and exporters of mannequins — saw steep declines. German exports fell from €15.2 million to €3.3 million (−78.0%), and Italian exports declined from €18.9 million to €16.5 million (−13.1%). By contrast, Lithuania emerged as a major exporter, with sales rising from €4.7 million to €9.4 million (+101.7%), becoming the fifth-largest EU exporter by 2025.

On the import side, France was the most stable large importer (€15.5M → €15.7M, +1.5%), while Germany's imports halved (€20.2M → €10.6M, −47.4%) and Italy's fell by 46%.

The specialisation data for 2025 shows Lithuania as the most specialised EU exporter (RSCA of 0.90), followed by Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands — all with positive but moderate RSCA values. This suggests that the production base for display figures in the EU has become more geographically dispersed, with new centres of competitiveness emerging alongside the traditional ones.

3. Production contraction, pandemic shock and geopolitical reconfiguration

3.1 EU production volumes declined sharply even as export propensity surged

EU production of CN 9618 fell from 4,670 tonnes to 2,410 tonnes (−48.4%) in volume and from €78.6 million to €66.8 million (−15.1%) in value. The volume contraction is far steeper than the value contraction, again pointing to a shift towards higher-value products. The minimum production value of €44 million was recorded during the pandemic year.

Despite this contraction, export propensity — the ratio of exports to domestic production — surged from 56.0% to 92.5% (+65.3%). This means that a much larger share of what the EU produces is now destined for non-EU markets. Simultaneously, trade intensity (total trade as a share of production value) rose from 71.0% to 96.4%. In other words, the EU's mannequin industry has become both smaller and more outward-facing: it produces less in absolute terms but directs a far greater proportion of its output to export markets, while relying on imports to meet domestic demand.

3.2 The COVID-19 pandemic caused a severe but partially reversible shock

The year 2020 stands out as a sharp discontinuity in the data. Minimum values for imports (€47.5 million), exports (€32.2 million) and production (€44.0 million) all cluster around this period, reflecting the combined impact of retail lockdowns, cancelled fashion events, and supply-chain disruptions. Volatility analysis confirms significant instability, with several partners showing coefficient of variation values above 0.4 (e.g., Switzerland, Russia, Taiwan). Trade subsequently recovered, but not to pre-pandemic levels — the 2025 figures for both imports and exports remain well below their 2015 starting points, suggesting that some of the demand destruction was permanent, possibly linked to the acceleration of e-commerce and reduced physical retail investment.

3.3 Geopolitical events reshaped trade flows, with Russia and Vietnam as notable cases

Two of the most striking shifts in the partner data are attributable to geopolitical rather than economic factors:

• Russia: EU exports to Russia fell from €4.1 million in 2015 to just €0.7 million in 2025 (−83.0%). The decline accelerated sharply after 2022, consistent with the EU sanctions regime. Russia was previously the fourth-largest non-EU export destination.

• Vietnam: EU imports from Vietnam collapsed from €1.4 million to €14,000 (−99.0%). Vietnam had briefly emerged as an alternative sourcing destination (likely to reduce dependence on China), but this channel appears to have effectively closed. The coefficient of variation for Vietnamese imports is 1.03 — the highest among all partners — indicating extreme instability.

These cases illustrate how the CN 9618 market, though niche, is not insulated from broader geopolitical currents. Supply-chain resilience and trade-policy alignment increasingly shape sourcing and destination decisions in this segment.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for mannequins and display figures (CN 9618) has become smaller in volume, more expensive in unit terms, more reliant on imports, and more outward-oriented in its production. The overall contraction in trade volumes — roughly 35% for imports and 45% for exports — was partially offset by rising unit values, particularly on the export side, suggesting a continued premiumisation of EU-manufactured products. China's dominance as the primary import source persists, though at reduced absolute levels, while EU exports remain geographically diversified. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a deep but partially recovered shock, while sanctions on Russia and the collapse of the Vietnam sourcing channel exemplify how geopolitical forces are reshaping trade in even this specialised product category. The structural shift towards a higher export propensity (from 56% to 93% of production) and growing net import reliance (from −4% to +13%) points to an EU mannequin industry that is increasingly specialised in high-value, niche products for global markets, while the domestic retail and fashion sectors depend on external — primarily Chinese — suppliers for standardised display equipment.