Market evolution: Sanitary towels and tampons (CN 9619) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The EU market for sanitary towels, tampons, and similar articles (CN 9619) has demonstrated robust growth and significant structural shifts over the 2015-2025 period. Driven by strong export performance and evolving global partnerships, the EU has solidified its position as a major net exporter in this essential goods sector. This report analyses the key dynamics, focusing on the EU's changing trade profile, the reorientation of its commercial relationships, and the sector's resilience to market volatility and price shocks. The analysis reveals a market characterized by increasing export orientation, rising unit values, and a notable concentration of trade flows, all while maintaining substantial domestic production.

1. The EU's Evolving Trade Surplus: Rising Exports Driven by Value

The EU's trade balance in sanitary articles has strengthened considerably, moving from a surplus of €1.81 billion in 2015 to €2.04 billion in 2025. This growth is not due to increased volume but rather to a strategic shift towards higher-value exports.

The export engine: from volume to value

Over the decade, EU exports of CN 9619 grew by 11.7% in value but saw a 6.3% decline in quantity. This divergence is explained by a significant 19.2% increase in the average export price, from €3,861 per tonne in 2015 to €4,601 per tonne in 2025. This suggests EU producers are competing successfully in higher market segments, likely through product innovation, branding, or specialization in premium goods, rather than competing on volume alone.

Imports follow a similar value-up, volume-down trend

Imports also experienced price-driven growth, rising 5.3% in value while falling 9.3% in volume, with unit prices increasing by 16.1%. This parallel trend indicates that price pressures affect the entire market, likely linked to global increases in raw material costs (e.g., pulp, cotton) and inflationary pressures over the period.

Source: General Overview

2. Reorientation of Trade Partnerships and Production Hubs

The geographic landscape of EU trade in sanitary products has undergone a profound transformation, with a clear pivot towards the UK and a rise in Eastern European production and export hubs.

Export markets: The UK consolidates its dominance

The United Kingdom has become the EU's premier export destination, with the value of exports growing by 39.8% from €611 million in 2015 to €855 million in 2025. This solidified its position, accounting for approximately 35% of total EU exports by value in 2025. Conversely, exports to the Russian Federation fell sharply by 45.4%, reflecting geopolitical disruptions. A notable surge is seen in exports to the United States (+220.9%) and Australia (+52.5%), indicating successful market diversification.

Import sources: A rise from China and Türkiye, decline from traditional partners

The import side shows even more dramatic shifts. China's share of EU imports exploded, with its value rising 341.7% to €140 million, making it the top import partner by 2025. In contrast, imports from traditional partners like Switzerland (-63.3%) and the United Kingdom (-44.6%) declined significantly. Imports from Türkiye also grew strongly (+142.9%). This reconfiguration underscores a broader supply chain shift towards Asian manufacturing.

Internal production and specialization: The Czech and Polish ascendancy

EU internal production of CN 9619 grew substantially, with quantity increasing by 44.2% and value by 36.3% between the first and last years in the dataset. This growth was heavily concentrated in specific member states. Czechia and Poland emerged as highly specialized production and export powerhouses. Czechia's revealed comparative advantage (RCA) was a remarkable 3.81 in 2025, with its production share in the EU reaching 18.3%. Poland also showed strong specialization (RCA: 2.30). This points to a consolidation of manufacturing in Central and Eastern Europe, likely leveraging competitive advantages in labor and logistics.

Source: Top partners by value and Specialisation

3. Concentration, Volatility, and Market Shocks

Despite its overall growth, the market exhibits increasing concentration and has been subject to significant price volatility, particularly in the export channel.

Trade flows are becoming more concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of market concentration, rose for both EU imports and exports. The import HHI increased by 26.2% (from 1,393 to 1,758), and the export HHI by 23.0% (from 1,208 to 1,486). This rising concentration indicates a narrowing of trade partnerships. On the import side, this is driven by the growing dominance of China. On the export side, it reflects the outsized and growing importance of the UK market.

Export volatility: Linked to geopolitical instability

Export volatility was highest for the Russian Federation (Coefficient of Variation, CV: 0.50) and the United States (CV: 0.43). This volatility aligns with the significant export decline to Russia and the large, fluctuating growth to the US. Import volatility was exceptionally high for the United States (CV: 0.91) and China (CV: 0.50), though the latter is a function of its rapid, non-linear growth.

Notable price shocks in the supply chain

The data identifies several significant price shocks. The most severe was a price shock in EU exports to Türkiye in 2022, with an abnormality index of 65.3 and a price shift of +38.8%. This may be linked to currency fluctuations or specific contract terms. Similarly, a major price shock occurred in EU imports from Switzerland in 2023 (+17.5% shift). These events highlight the vulnerability of specific trade corridors to sudden price dislocations.

Source: Volatility and Supply shocks

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 decade, the EU sanitary products market (CN 9619) has evolved from a volume-driven trade profile to a value-driven one. The EU has strengthened its net exporter status, primarily by increasing export prices rather than volumes, and by successfully penetrating and growing in high-value markets like the UK, US, and Australia. This success is underpinned by a consolidation of production within the EU, particularly in Czechia and Poland.

The trade landscape has been fundamentally reoriented: the UK is now the cornerstone of EU exports, while China has become the dominant import source. This has led to increased trade concentration, raising both efficiency and potential dependency risks. The market has weathered significant price shocks, especially in 2022, demonstrating volatility tied to specific partners. Looking forward, the EU's strong export propensity and high domestic production provide a solid foundation, but the increasing concentration of both import and export flows warrants careful monitoring for supply chain resilience and competitive dynamics.