Market evolution: Musical instruments and accessories (CN 92) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in musical instruments, parts, and accessories (Combined Nomenclature heading 92) over the period 2015–2025. The product group covers a wide range of goods—from pianos and string instruments to electronic keyboards, percussion, wind instruments, and associated parts and accessories. The analysis draws on EU aggregate trade data with non-EU countries, supplemented by production figures where available, to identify the main structural shifts, geographic reorientations, and competitive dynamics shaping the market. The data reveals a sector undergoing a fundamental transformation: the EU's traditional manufacturing base is pivoting toward higher-value production even as import dependence deepens and the trade deficit widens significantly. Scope & Definitions

1. A deepening structural deficit driven by diverging price trajectories

The EU's trade in musical instruments is characterised by a persistent and widening trade deficit. While both imports and exports grew in value terms over the decade, imports expanded much faster, and the two flows diverged sharply in volume. This section examines the macro-level dynamics behind this growing imbalance.

The trade deficit nearly doubled in value

The EU's trade deficit in CN 92 products widened from €−267 million in 2015 to €−477 million in 2025, a deterioration of nearly 79%. The deficit reached its worst level (in absolute terms) around 2022, at approximately €−520 million, before partially narrowing. This persistent gap reflects the EU's structural role as a net importer of musical instruments—a pattern that has intensified over time rather than reversed.

Trade overview

Import and export volumes moved in opposite directions

A striking feature of the period is the divergence in physical trade flows. EU import quantities rose by 20.4% (from 53,657 tonnes to 64,581 tonnes), while export quantities fell by 29.6% (from 14,164 tonnes to 9,968 tonnes). This means the EU is importing more physical goods while exporting fewer, yet export values have still managed to grow—pointing to a clear shift toward higher unit values on the export side.

EU export prices surged while import prices remained largely flat

The most revealing price dynamic is the dramatic divergence between export and import unit values. EU export prices rose by 63.2% over the period (from ~€49,600/t to ~€81,000/t), while import prices increased by only 10.0% (from ~€18,100/t to ~€19,900/t). By 2025, the average EU export was priced at roughly four times the average import. This strongly suggests that the EU has specialised in premium, high-value-added instruments (e.g. German grand pianos, Italian wind instruments, French accordions), while mass-market products are increasingly sourced from low-cost Asian producers.

Trade overview

2. Asian consolidation on the import side and a reconfigured export geography

Behind the headline aggregates lie significant shifts in the EU's trading partners. The import side is increasingly dominated by China and Southeast Asia, while the export geography has been reshaped by post-Brexit trade disruption and growing demand in the United States and other markets.

China cemented its position as the EU's dominant supplier

China remained by far the EU's largest source of musical instrument imports throughout the period, growing from €340.6 million in 2015 to €494.1 million in 2025 (+45.1%). China alone accounted for the majority of the value increase in EU imports. Indonesia, the second-largest supplier, similarly expanded from €166.5 million to €228.1 million (+37.0%). Together, these two Asian origins represent over half of all EU imports by value.

Top partners by value

Malaysia emerged as a fast-growing niche supplier

The most dramatic percentage growth among import partners was Malaysia, which surged from just €1.9 million in 2015 to €37.2 million in 2025—an increase of nearly 1,871%. While still much smaller than China or Indonesia in absolute terms, this trajectory suggests Malaysia is capturing a growing share of mid-range instrument production, possibly as manufacturers diversify their supply chains across Southeast Asia.

UK trade flows were disrupted by Brexit

The United Kingdom's role in EU musical instrument trade was significantly reshaped over the period. UK imports from the EU fell by 40.5% (from €49.0M to €29.1M), and EU exports to the UK declined by 23.3% (from €154.4M to €118.5M). The latter represents a loss of approximately €36 million in annual export value—a substantial contraction attributable in large part to the introduction of customs formalations and regulatory barriers following Brexit. UK import volatility was exceptionally high, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.76—the highest among the EU's major import partners.

The United States became the EU's largest export market by value

The United States overtook the UK as the EU's top export destination. Exports to the US grew from €149.2 million in 2015 to €212.9 million in 2025 (+42.7%), driven by strong American demand for premium European instruments. Switzerland also expanded significantly (+44.9%), and Norway (+46.4%) and Türkiye (+92.4%) emerged as notable growth markets.

Top partners by value

Import concentration edged upward while export markets diversified slightly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports increased from 2,139 to 2,227 (+4.1%), indicating a modest tightening of import concentration—consistent with the growing dominance of China and Indonesia. By contrast, the export HHI decreased slightly from 1,258 to 1,232 (−2.0%), suggesting EU exporters have marginally diversified their destination markets. The volume-based HHI for imports rose more steeply (+12.6%), confirming that the physical flow of goods is concentrating even more than the value flow.

Concentration analysis

3. European production pivots from volume to value

Perhaps the most consequential structural shift revealed by the data is the transformation of the EU's own musical instrument production. The EU is producing far fewer instruments than a decade ago, yet the total value of production has risen—pointing to a decisive move upmarket.

EU production volumes collapsed while values increased

EU production of musical instruments (measured in items) fell from 9,385,692 units in 2015 to just 3,245,106 units in 2025—a decline of 65.4%. Over the same period, production value rose from €855 million to €993 million (+16.1%). This implies that the average value per unit produced roughly tripled, from approximately €91 per item to approximately €306 per item. The EU has effectively exited mass-market instrument manufacturing in favour of artisanal, professional-grade, and premium products.

Production volumes

Germany leads EU specialisation, but competitive advantages are concentrated in a few Member States

Germany stands out as the most specialised EU Member State in musical instrument production, with an RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage) of 1.94 and an RSCA (Standardised RCA) of 0.319—well above the neutral threshold. Germany alone accounts for approximately 41% of EU production value and 21% of total exports. France (RCA 1.39, RSCA 0.162) and the Netherlands (RCA 1.36, RSCA 0.153) follow as moderately specialised producers. At the other extreme, Cyprus, Malta, and Finland show virtually no comparative advantage in this product group.

Specialisation analysis

Germany and Sweden showed the strongest export growth among EU producers

Among the EU's top seven exporting Member States, Sweden recorded the most dramatic growth: exports surged from €29.5 million to €74.2 million (+151.6%). Germany, the largest exporter, grew from €272.9 million to €326.4 million (+19.6%). Italy also expanded (+23.1%), likely reflecting its strength in wind and percussion instruments. Conversely, the Netherlands' exports nearly halved (−47.6%), and France declined modestly (−6.7%).

Top reporters by value

Net import reliance surged, signalling growing vulnerability

The EU's net import reliance in musical instruments rose from 10.8% in 2015 to 28.9% in 2025 (+167.9%), peaking at 37.3% in 2022. This metric, which measures the share of domestic consumption satisfied by net imports, confirms that the EU's increasing dependence on foreign supply outpaces its ability to offset this through exports. The export propensity (exports as a share of production) also rose sharply from 57.1% to 84.1%, indicating that the EU's remaining production is increasingly oriented toward external markets rather than domestic consumption.

Net import reliance

Supply-side shocks highlighted the risks of concentrated sourcing

The volatility analysis reveals significant price shocks in the period. A price shock on Chinese imports in 2022 was the most severe event detected, with an abnormality score of 21.7 and a year-on-year price shift of +40.2%. Given that China accounted for 58.3% of import value, this shock had systemic implications for EU input costs. An earlier Indonesian import price shock in 2021 (+56.8%) and a UK export price shock in 2021 (+290.0%, likely reflecting post-Brexit customs reclassification effects) further illustrate the sector's vulnerability to supply disruptions. Mexico exhibited the highest import volatility (CV 1.24), while the UK and Malaysia also showed high instability on the import side.

Supply shock analysis

Conclusion

The EU's trade in musical instruments over 2015–2025 tells a story of strategic specialisation alongside growing external dependence. The bloc has progressively exited mass-market manufacturing—production volumes fell by nearly two-thirds—while moving decisively toward premium, high-value instruments. This is reflected in the dramatic divergence between export and import unit values (by 2025, EU exports were priced at roughly four times the average import) and in the strong performance of specialised producers like Germany and Sweden.

However, this pivot comes at a cost. The trade deficit has widened to nearly €477 million, net import reliance has almost tripled to 28.9%, and the EU's supply base is increasingly concentrated in China and Southeast Asia. The 2022 price shock on Chinese imports demonstrated the systemic risks of this concentration. Meanwhile, Brexit has structurally reduced the EU's access to its formerly largest single-country export market.

Looking ahead, the sector's trajectory will likely be shaped by the tension between the EU's comparative advantage in high-end craftsmanship and its deepening dependence on Asian suppliers for the broader market. Diversifying supply chains—toward emerging producers like Malaysia, or through reshoring of select product categories—may become a strategic priority, even as the premium segment continues to offer the strongest margins and growth potential.