Market evolution: Keyboard stringed instruments (CN 9201) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the EU's external trade in products covered by customs heading CN 9201 — Pianos, incl. automatic; harpsichords and other keyboard stringed instruments over the period 2015–2025. The category bundles three sub-headings: upright pianos (920110), grand pianos (920120), and harpsichords and other keyboard stringed instruments (920190).

Over this decade, the EU's trade in keyboard stringed instruments has undergone a profound structural transformation. Total traded volumes declined sharply — EU export quantities fell by 42.5% and import quantities by 38.6% — yet trade values proved far more resilient, with exports declining only 9.4% in value. Behind this divergence lies a decisive shift toward higher-value products, most notably grand pianos, alongside significant geopolitical realignments in trading partnerships. The EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter, with its net export surplus remaining broadly stable at around €32–33 million, even as absolute volumes contracted. At the same time, domestic production volumes collapsed by over 80%, suggesting a fundamental restructuring of the EU's piano manufacturing landscape.

1. Volume Contraction and the Price Resilience Effect

Export values held up despite a dramatic collapse in physical volumes

The most striking feature of the EU's CN 9201 trade over the 2015–2025 period is the widening gap between volume and value trajectories. EU exports fell from 2,621 tonnes (€117.0 million) in 2015 to just 1,506 tonnes (€106.0 million) in 2025 — a volume decline of 42.5% versus a value decline of only 9.4%. This implies a 57.7% increase in average export unit prices over the decade, from €44,626/t to €70,388/t. A similar but less pronounced pattern characterises imports: volumes dropped 38.6% (from 7,642t to 4,691t), values fell 12.8% (from €84.2m to €73.4m), and unit prices rose 42.1%.

This dynamic points to a market that is trading fewer but more expensive instruments. The rise in average unit prices reflects both a genuine shift in product mix — toward premium grand pianos — and likely inflationary pressures on instrument manufacturing costs over the period.

Grand pianos became the overwhelmingly dominant export category

The product segment breakdown reveals that grand pianos (CN 920120) are the backbone of EU exports. In 2025, grand pianos accounted for €80.8 million of the €106.0 million total — roughly 76% of all keyboard stringed instrument exports by value. Export unit prices for grand pianos (per piece) rose from €27,867 in 2015 to €39,430 in 2025, a 42% increase, while volumes declined from 2,963 to 2,049 units.

Upright piano exports suffered a far steeper decline — volumes fell from 7,884 to 3,526 units (−55%), and values dropped from €30.5m to €21.3m (−30.1%). The much smaller "other keyboard stringed instruments" category (harpsichords, etc.) remained stable in value terms, though price volatility was high. On the import side, grand pianos also saw significant price increases, from €5,912/unit to €6,095/unit, while upright piano imports dropped precipitously from 29,763 to 17,141 units.

EU production pivoted from volume to value at an unprecedented rate

The most dramatic figure in the dataset concerns EU domestic production. Output in unit terms collapsed from 25,978 pieces in 2015 to just 5,152 in 2025 — a decline of 80.2%. Yet production value actually increased from €155.7 million to €177.0 million (+13.7%). This implies that the average value per unit produced quadrupled, from approximately €6,000 to over €34,000. This is consistent with a shift away from mass-market upright pianos (many previously produced in lower-cost EU countries or under licence) and toward handcrafted, high-end instruments — particularly premium grand pianos — where European makers retain a strong competitive advantage.

2. Geopolitical Shifts and Partner Concentration

Russia's near-total disappearance from EU export markets

Among the most visible geopolitical shocks in the dataset is the collapse of EU exports to Russia. From €5.7 million in 2015, exports fell to just €1,720 by 2025 — effectively a complete cessation. The data shows that the decline was already underway before accelerating sharply, consistent with the progressively tightening EU sanctions regime from 2022 onwards. The supply shock detection identifies this as the most significant supply-side disruption in the dataset (abnormality score: 7.5, shift: −98.6%, centred on 2025). Russia had represented approximately 5% of EU keyboard instrument exports by value; its loss, while not catastrophic, contributed to the overall volume decline.

China's role diminished on both sides of the trade ledger

China's presence in the EU's CN 9201 trade contracted significantly in both directions. EU imports from China fell from €12.8 million to €5.5 million (−57.0%), making China the fastest-declining major import source. Meanwhile, EU exports to China — which had peaked at nearly €59.5 million at their height — fell from €23.0 million to €15.6 million (−32.1%). China shifted from being the EU's largest single export market to its fourth largest (behind the United States, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland). This likely reflects a combination of slowing Chinese demand for luxury imports and growing domestic piano manufacturing capacity.

Japan and Indonesia remained the dominant import sources, while the United States grew as an export destination

EU imports of CN 9201 products continued to be dominated by two Asian suppliers: Japan (€36.1m in 2025, −6.4%) and Indonesia (€23.1m, −9.1%). Together, these two countries supplied over 80% of EU imports by value, underlining the increasing import concentration (HHI rising from 3,269 to 3,564). On the export side, the United States emerged as the EU's single largest export market by 2025, growing 32.0% from €15.8m to €20.8m. This growth is notable given the simultaneous contraction in other major markets.

Germany consolidated its position as the EU's piano trade hub

Within the EU, Germany dominated both exports (€69.6m, or roughly 66% of the EU total) and imports (€25.5m, or 35% of the EU total) in 2025. Germany's Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.34 and RCA of 2.04 in 2025 confirm its strong specialisation in this category, reflecting the country's deep tradition in piano manufacturing (Steinway, Bechstein, Blüthner, Schimmel, and others). Czechia and Austria also showed notable specialisation, though at much smaller scales.

3. The EU's Evolving Trade Orientation and Vulnerability Profile

The EU strengthened its position as a net exporter in this category

Despite the overall contraction in trade volumes, the EU maintained a positive trade balance throughout the period, hovering around €32–33 million at both the start and end of the window. The net import reliance indicator — which measures the share of domestic demand met by imports — moved from −21.5% to −70.8%, meaning that the EU shifted from being a moderate net exporter to a much more pronounced one. This does not reflect growing exports in absolute terms, but rather the faster decline of imports relative to exports, as well as the EU's production pivot toward higher-value instruments.

Export propensity and trade intensity both increased

The export propensity — the share of EU production that is exported — rose from 62.7% to 76.3%, and trade intensity (total trade as a share of production plus imports) increased from 74.2% to 82.4%. These trends indicate that, as production volumes declined and shifted upward in price segment, EU manufacturers became ever more reliant on international markets — particularly for their premium instruments. The salience analysis identifies export propensity (score: 48.0) as the most important orientation metric, slightly ahead of trade intensity (43.4).

Import concentration increased, posing moderate supply-side risk

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for import concentration rose from 3,269 to 3,564 over the period — a 9.0% increase. While this remains below thresholds typically associated with critical dependency, the growing reliance on Japan and Indonesia for mid-range instruments (particularly upright pianos and the Yamaha/Kawai production ecosystems in Indonesia) represents a meaningful supply-chain concentration. By contrast, export concentration (HHI) declined slightly from 1,067 to 1,003, reflecting some diversification of EU export destinations — albeit from a base already more fragmented than the import side. The volatility data shows that China (CV: 0.32) and Indonesia (CV: 0.24) showed moderate import value volatility, while smaller partners such as Vietnam (CV: 0.61) and India (CV: 2.14) were considerably more erratic.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in keyboard stringed instruments over 2015–2025 tells a story of contraction in physical volumes coexisting with resilience — and even growth — in value terms. The market has pivoted decisively toward premium products: EU piano production shed 80% of its unit output but saw a 14% rise in total value, and grand pianos now account for over three-quarters of export revenues. This upmarket shift reflects the enduring competitive strength of European craftsmanship in the high-end piano segment, even as mass-market production has migrated to Asia.

Geopolitically, the period witnessed a significant reshuffling. Russia was effectively severed as an export destination, and China's role contracted on both the import and export sides. The United States emerged as the EU's largest single export partner, while Japan and Indonesia consolidated their dominance as import suppliers. Germany remains the undisputed centre of gravity, accounting for roughly two-thirds of EU exports and holding by far the strongest comparative advantage in the sector.

Looking at trade orientation, the EU has become a more specialised and more export-dependent producer of keyboard stringed instruments. The growing import concentration, however, warrants monitoring — particularly given the heavy reliance on a small number of Asian suppliers for the mid-range segment. Overall, the data paints a picture of an industry that is smaller in physical scale but more focused, more profitable per unit, and more deeply integrated into global luxury goods markets than it was a decade ago.