Market evolution: Electric musical instruments (CN 9207) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the European Union's trade in electric musical instruments (Combined Nomenclature code 9207) over the decade from 2015 to 2025. The category encompasses keyboard instruments, electric guitars, accordions, and other instruments where sound is produced or amplified electrically. The EU's market for these products is characterized by a growing dependence on imports, a significant structural shift in domestic production, and a widening trade deficit. This analysis draws on the provided data to describe these trends, interpret their causes, and assess their implications.

The Widening Trade Deficit and the Import Surge

The period was marked by a substantial growth in the value of EU imports, which outpaced export growth and led to a significant expansion of the trade deficit.

Imports grew steadily in value, albeit with fluctuating volumes. EU imports of electric musical instruments rose from €367.9 million in 2015 to €594.2 million in 2025, a 61.5% increase. This value growth occurred despite a declining average import price (from €17,875/t in 2015 to €15,895/t in 2025), indicating that the volume of imported instruments increased even more dramatically. Indeed, imported quantity surged by 81.6%, reaching over 37,000 tonnes in 2025. This combination of rising value and falling unit price points to an increasing volume of mid-range and mass-market products entering the EU market.

Export growth was more modest and concentrated on higher-value items. While EU export value also increased—by 51.3% to reach €201.6 million—the quantity exported actually fell by 3.8%. The export price per tonne rose by 57.3% to €63,105/t, suggesting the EU is specializing in exporting higher-value, likely more specialized or premium instruments. The overall trade balance consequently deteriorated, with the deficit widening from -€234.6 million in 2015 to -€392.6 million in 2025, a 67.3% increase.

Geographical Rebalancing and Volatile Partnerships

The source of EU imports and the destination of its exports underwent notable shifts, accompanied by high volatility in specific bilateral flows.

Asian dominance in EU imports solidified, with China as the paramount partner. China and Indonesia have consistently been the top two suppliers to the EU. China's share grew strongly, with its exports to the EU rising from €130.7 million to €239.2 million (+83.0%). Indonesia's exports to the EU also increased, from €105.4 million to €166.7 million. More strikingly, the EU's imports from Malaysia grew from a negligible €1.7 million to €32.1 million, a massive 1,791.6% increase, indicating a diversification of Southeast Asian supply chains. This data is highly volatile, with import flows from Mexico and the United Kingdom showing particularly high coefficients of variation, signifying unstable trade relationships.

The United States became the EU's largest non-EU export market, while the UK's importance faded. For EU exports, the United States overtook the United Kingdom as the most valuable destination. Exports to the US grew from €22.1 million to €48.9 million (+121.2%). Conversely, exports to the United Kingdom, historically a key market, declined from €63.7 million to €42.7 million (-32.9%). This likely reflects a combination of Brexit-related trade friction and shifting demand patterns. Switzerland and Norway also emerged as growing export destinations. Export flows to Canada and Hong Kong, however, displayed extreme volatility (coefficients of variation above 2.0), indicating these are less stable markets.

The Collapse of Domestic Production and Rising Import Dependency

The most dramatic trend in the data is the near-disappearance of EU domestic production of electric musical instruments, which has fundamentally reshaped the market's vulnerability profile.

EU production volume plummeted. EU production of these instruments, measured in number of items, fell by an staggering 88.2% over the period, from 524,630 units in 2015 to just 61,660 units in 2025. The value of production also declined significantly, by 40.1% to €95.2 million. This collapse indicates a structural shift where EU-based manufacturing has been largely offshored to Asia, with the EU retaining a smaller, likely higher-value, production niche.

This production decline directly fueled a rise in import dependency. The EU's net import reliance for electric musical instruments soared from 43.3% in 2015 to 80.4% in 2025. This means that over four-fifths of the instruments consumed in the EU in 2025 were sourced from outside the bloc. The export propensity (the share of production that is exported) also surged, from 54.9% to 191.9%, indicating that the remaining EU production is now overwhelmingly oriented towards export markets, likely serving niche, premium segments.

The market is highly concentrated in imports from Asia. The import Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) remained elevated (around 2,645 in 2025), confirming a concentrated supply base. Within the EU, Germany is the largest importer (€209.9M) and has also grown to become the largest exporter (€66.2M), solidifying its role as the central hub in the EU's trade for these instruments. A notable price shock was detected for imports from China in 2022, where the unit price spiked abnormally.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU market for electric musical instruments transformed from a moderately dependent to a highly import-reliant system. The collapse of intra-EU production volume shifted the supply burden decisively onto Asian producers, particularly China, Indonesia, and Malaysia. While EU exports grew in value by concentrating on higher-price segments and diversifying towards the U.S. and Switzerland, they could not offset the much larger import surge, leading to a sharply widened trade deficit. This structural shift towards offshoring has increased the EU's exposure to supply chain disruptions and price volatility from a concentrated set of external suppliers, while EU-based production now survives by specializing in niche, export-oriented products.