Market evolution: Art and antiques (CN 97) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in works of art, collectors' pieces, and antiques (customs heading CN 97) with non-EU countries over the period 2015–2025. The category encompasses six sub-headings: paintings and drawings (9701), original prints and lithographs (9702), original sculptures (9703), postage and revenue stamps (9704), collectors' pieces of various interests (9705), and antiques over 100 years old (9706).

Over the decade, EU imports more than doubled in value while the quantity of goods received fell by a third, signalling a fundamental shift towards higher-value, lower-volume transactions. Exports grew more modestly. The result was a dramatic narrowing of the EU's historically positive trade balance — from a €1.14 billion surplus in 2015 to near-parity by 2025. Three structural dynamics stand out: a price-driven import surge concentrated in paintings and sculptures, the reconfiguration of UK–EU trade flows after Brexit, and the near-total collapse of exports to Russia following the 2022 sanctions.

1. From surplus to near-balance: a decade of import catch-up

EU imports grew twice as fast as exports

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade in art and antiques underwent a striking rebalancing. Export value rose from €3.12 billion to €4.28 billion (+37.3%), while import value surged from €1.98 billion to €4.22 billion (+112.8%). The trade balance consequently shrank from a €1.14 billion surplus to just €61 million — a decline of 94.6%. At its lowest point, the EU even recorded a deficit of €1.81 billion.

Import volumes fell while export volumes held steady

A key driver of the import surge was not more objects crossing EU borders, but far more expensive ones. Import volume declined from 50,586 tonnes in 2015 to 34,040 tonnes in 2025 (−32.7%), yet the average import price nearly tripled — from €39,198 per tonne to €123,963 per tonne (+216.2%). By contrast, export volumes grew modestly from 9,836 to 10,705 tonnes (+8.8%), and the average export price rose from €317,000 to €400,000 per tonne (+26.1%).

France and Belgium emerged as the main import gateways

Among EU member states, France remained the largest importer (from €587 million to €1.65 billion, +181.2%) and the largest exporter (from €1.18 billion to €1.77 billion, +50.3%). Belgium experienced the most dramatic growth as an import hub, with inbound art trade rising from €98 million to €513 million (+422.6%). The Netherlands, conversely, saw its imports decline by 45.2%, possibly reflecting a redistribution of trade flows through other customs corridors.

2. Price-led growth: the rising premium on paintings and sculptures

Paintings dominated import growth with a fourfold price increase

The product breakdown reveals that the import surge was overwhelmingly concentrated in two categories. Paintings (9701) saw import value rise from €883 million to €2.28 billion (+158%), driven almost entirely by price: the average import price per tonne more than tripled from €215,387 to €717,658, even as quantities remained broadly stable (around 3,200–4,100 tonnes). Sculptures (9703) followed a similar trajectory — import value climbed from €292 million to €683 million (+134%), with average prices rising from €163,025 to €289,504 per tonne.

Collectors' pieces surged in price but lost volume

Collections and collectors' pieces (9705) were by far the largest category by weight, accounting for over 27,000 tonnes of imports in 2025. However, import volume actually fell from 38,306 tonnes in 2015 to 27,329 tonnes (−28.6%), while the average price per tonne more than doubled from €14,465 to €33,819. This category — covering zoological, mineralogical, numismatic, and ethnographic items — appears to be shifting from bulk commodity trading towards more selective, higher-value acquisitions.

Export structure remained more stable, with paintings leading

On the export side, paintings (9701) remained the dominant category, growing from €1.80 billion to €2.33 billion (+29%). Sculptures (9703) rose from €671 million to €896 million (+33%). The most notable shift was in collectors' pieces (9705), which more than doubled from €240 million to €520 million (+117%). Antiques (9706) exports grew from €337 million to €428 million (+27%), but volume declined from 1,980 tonnes in 2015 to 3,418 tonnes in 2025, though it peaked at 4,210 tonnes in 2024.

3. Shifting geographies: Brexit reconfigurations, Russian collapse, and Swiss volatility

The United Kingdom became the EU's fastest-growing import source

The most dramatic geographic shift in the decade was the transformation of UK–EU art trade. Following Brexit, the UK moved from intra-EU to extra-EU reporting for customs purposes. Imports from the UK surged from €191 million in 2015 to €1.10 billion in 2025 (+473.9%), making the UK the second-largest source of art imports after the United States. Exports to the UK also grew substantially, from €407 million to €775 million (+90.3%). This reflects both a statistical reclassification effect and the real-world friction introduced by customs formalities for art shipments between the UK and the EU.

Exports to Russia collapsed after 2022

EU exports to the Russian Federation fell from €35.9 million to just €211,000 between 2015 and 2025 (−99.4%). This near-total collapse corresponds to the EU sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Art trade — already subject to cultural property controls — became essentially impossible between the two blocs. The coefficient of variation for EU–Russia art exports stood at 0.87, the highest among major partners, reflecting this abrupt disruption.

The United States remained the dominant partner on both sides

The United States consistently held the largest share of both EU art imports and exports. Imports from the US grew from €1.06 billion to €1.39 billion (+31.1%), while exports to the US rose from €1.19 billion to €1.84 billion (+54.2%). The transatlantic corridor thus remained the backbone of the global art market. A notable price shock was detected in EU exports to the US in 2022, with average unit prices jumping 90.1% — likely reflecting a post-pandemic rebound in auction activity and a shift towards higher-value consignments.

Switzerland triggered the most extreme import-side shock

The most statistically abnormal event in the dataset was a price shock in EU imports from Switzerland in 2023, with an abnormality score of 21.9 and a price shift of +63.8%. Switzerland accounted for 24.6% of EU import value that year. Imports from Switzerland had already doubled over the decade (from €453 million to €1.04 billion, +129.6%), consistent with Switzerland's role as a major art storage, trading, and auction hub (e.g., Geneva freeports). The 2023 spike likely reflects the movement of high-value works through Swiss intermediaries.

Import concentration fell as trade diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU import concentration by value declined from 3,629 to 2,713 (−25.2%), indicating that import sources became more diversified over the decade. The UK's emergence as a major partner, alongside growth from Japan (+98.7%), Brazil (+241.5%), and other smaller origins, diluted the US share. Export concentration remained relatively stable, rising slightly from 2,509 to 2,715 (+8.2%), as the loss of Russia and decline in China (−38.8%) were offset by gains in the UK, Norway (+95.3%), and Australia (+190.3%).

Conclusion

The EU's trade in art and antiques over 2015–2025 was shaped by three intersecting forces: a dramatic price-led increase in import values that eroded the EU's traditional surplus, the reconfiguration of UK–EU trade flows following Brexit, and the geopolitical rupture with Russia after 2022. The market has shifted decisively towards higher-value, lower-volume imports — particularly in paintings and sculptures — suggesting that the EU increasingly serves as a destination for premium art rather than a net exporter. France consolidated its position as the EU's principal art market hub, while Belgium emerged as a fast-growing import corridor. Looking ahead, the fragility of the near-zero trade balance, the concentration of growth in a few high-value categories, and dependence on the transatlantic and Swiss trading corridors present both opportunities and vulnerabilities for the European art market.