Market evolution: Original sculptures and statuary (CN 9703) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade dynamics of Original sculptures and statuary (Customs code 9703) by the European Union with non-EU partners over the 2015-2025 period. The market for these high-value, unique cultural goods exhibits distinct characteristics, showing robust growth in value terms alongside significant shifts in trade partners and intra-EU specializations. The analysis is based on aggregated EU trade data and will explore the overarching trends in market expansion, the evolving geographic composition of trade, and the structural factors underpinning this market.

1. A Decade of Strong Value Growth Despite Cyclical Volume Fluctuations

The EU's external trade in original sculptures grew substantially in value over the examined decade, though this growth was not linear and was often driven by price increases rather than consistent volume expansion.

Trade Values Reached Record Highs, Widening the EU's Surplus

Between 2015 and 2025, the total value of EU exports of sculptures increased by 33.4%, from €671.2 million to €895.5 million. Over the same period, imports surged by 133.5%, climbing from €292.4 million to €682.6 million (General Overview). Consequently, while the EU maintained a consistent trade surplus, its size shrank by 43.8%, narrowing from €378.8 million in 2015 to €213.0 million in 2025.

The peak year for trade value was notably asymmetric: import values peaked at €1.216 billion in 2021, while export values reached their maximum of €895.5 million in 2025.

Price Trends Outpaced Volume, Indicating a Shift Toward Higher-Value Pieces

The growth in trade value was primarily propelled by rising unit prices rather than a consistent increase in traded weight. EU export prices (EUR per tonne) rose by 23.0% over the period, while import prices increased by 77.6%. In contrast, the physical quantity (in tonnes) exported grew by only 8.5%, and the quantity imported grew by 31.4% (General Overview).

This divergence suggests the EU market is trading in increasingly expensive artworks, a trend especially pronounced in the segment for sculptures over 100 years old.

2. Dramatic Geographic Reconfiguration of Trade Partners

The list of the EU's most important trade partners for sculptures underwent a significant reshuffle, with the United Kingdom's role changing most dramatically due to its exit from the EU Single Market.

The UK Transformed from an Intra-EU Flow to a Major External Partner

The most striking change is the United Kingdom's emergence as a top-tier partner post-Brexit. For EU imports, the UK's share of value soared from €29.1 million in 2015 to €153.2 million in 2025, a 426.7% increase. Simultaneously, EU exports to the UK grew by 356.0%, from €21.1 million to €96.1 million (Top partners by value). This rapid growth reflects the newly established customs border, formalizing trade that was previously internal.

The United States and Switzerland Remain Pivotal, but with Shifting Balances

The United States solidified its position as the EU's largest single-country export destination, with imports from the US growing to €160.1 million (+17.9%). However, the most significant growth in EU imports came from Switzerland, which became the largest source by 2025, with values leaping from €84.6 million to €252.5 million (+198.3%) (Top partners by value). This highlights Switzerland's role as a major art market hub and possibly a conduit for global art into the EU.

Trade Concentration Modestly Decreased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), which measures market concentration, shows a slight decline in both import and export concentration by value. For imports, the HHI fell from 3,176 to 2,829 (-10.9%), and for exports from 3,384 to 3,263 (-3.6%) (Market Structure). This indicates a marginal diversification of trade flows, though the market remains relatively concentrated.

3. Intra-EU Specialization and the High-Value Antique Segment

The structure of the EU market reveals clear specializations among member states and a distinct segmentation between modern originals and antiques.

France and Italy Lead in Sculpture Trade Specialization

An analysis of 2025 trade data reveals significant intra-EU specialization. France is the most specialized EU exporter of sculptures (RSCA: 0.60), accounting for 31.7% of total EU export value despite representing only 7.8% of total EU goods trade. Italy follows closely (RSCA: 0.56), with a 28.1% share of sculpture exports. These countries leverage their renowned artistic heritage and strong auction house presence (Market Structure).

The "Over 100 Years Old" Segment Exhibits Extreme Price Volatility

Breaking down the 9703 heading reveals a two-tier market. The vast majority of trade (by volume and value) is in modern originals (CN 970390). However, the niche for antiques (CN 970310) is characterized by much higher and more volatile prices. For instance, the import price per tonne for antiques in 2025 was €1.15 million, over four times the price for modern sculptures (€267,300). Export price volatility in this segment is even more pronounced, swinging from €474,108 per tonne in 2024 to €1.48 million in 2025 (Product Segment Breakdown).

Specific Trade Corridors Exhibit High Volatility

Several trade relationships demonstrated high volatility (coefficient of variation > 0.7), often linked to sporadic, high-value sales. Notable examples include EU imports from Viet Nam (CV: 0.93) and exports to Japan (CV: 1.01) and Australia (CV: 0.88) (Volatility & Shocks). Specific "shock" events were detected, such as a 170.4% price surge in exports to the United Arab Emirates in 2020, likely driven by a few exceptional sales.

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 period, the EU's external market for original sculptures evolved into a higher-value, more expensive marketplace. While the EU maintained a trade surplus, its imports grew significantly faster, driven by rising prices and a substantial increase in inflows from Switzerland and, post-Brexit, the United Kingdom. The market is geographically concentrated but became slightly more diversified. Internally, the EU's trade is heavily specialized in a few artistic powerhouses, namely France and Italy. The segment for antique sculptures, though small by volume, punches far above its weight in value and price volatility, acting as a barometer for the high-end, unique art market. The overall picture is one of a resilient, high-value cultural goods trade that adapts to geopolitical shifts while being influenced by the unique, one-of-a-kind nature of its products.