Market evolution: Paintings and drawings (CN 9701) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of European Union (EU-27) external trade for customs code 9701, which covers hand-executed paintings, drawings, collages, and mosaics, over the period from 2015 to 2025. The analysis is based on annual trade data between the EU and non-EU countries. Over this decade, the market for artistic works underwent significant structural changes, characterized by a dramatic reversal in the EU's trade balance, evolving partnership dynamics, and notable price-driven shocks. The EU's role has shifted from being a consistent net exporter to a position of approximate trade balance, driven by a surge in import values that outpaced export growth.

A Structural Shift in the EU's Trade Balance

The most fundamental trend over the period is the transformation of the EU from a significant net exporter of artistic works to a position of near balance. This shift is driven by an explosive growth in the value of imports, far exceeding the growth in exports.

From Surplus to Balance

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade balance in artistic works deteriorated substantially. The EU began the period with a substantial surplus of €918 million. By 2025, this surplus had shrunk to just €49 million, representing a decrease of 94.6%. This occurred despite exports growing in value by 29.2% to €2.33 billion. The primary cause was a 158.0% surge in imports, which grew from €883 million in 2015 to €2.28 billion in 2025 (General Overview).

A Divergence of Value and Volume

The growth in trade value masks a divergent trend in physical volume (measured in tonnes). While the value of exports and imports increased, the quantity of goods traded actually declined.

• Exports: Value increased by 29.2%, while volume decreased by 12.5%.
• Imports: Value increased by 158.0%, while volume decreased by 22.6%.

This indicates that the growth in trade was almost entirely driven by rising unit prices. The average price per tonne for EU exports rose by 47.6%, and for imports by 233.2% over the period. This suggests a market trend toward trading higher-value pieces, or broader inflation in the art market, which impacted imports more severely.

Dominant Partners and Evolving Concentration

The EU's trade in artistic works is highly concentrated among a few key partners, though the degree of concentration has evolved differently for imports and exports.

The United States and United Kingdom as Central Pillars

The United States and the United Kingdom are the EU's most significant trading partners for artistic works, though their roles differ for exports and imports.

• For EU Exports: The U.S. is the primary destination, with its share of export value growing 48.0% to reach €980 million in 2025. Switzerland is the second-largest partner but saw a slight decline (-10.4%). The UK remained a crucial but volatile market (Top Partners for Exports).
• For EU Imports: The U.S. and UK are the top two sources, but with explosive growth. Imports from the U.S. grew by 88.2% to €773 million. More strikingly, imports from the UK grew by 361.8%, from €113 million in 2015 to €522 million in 2025, making it the fastest-growing major source. Switzerland also saw strong growth (120.8%) (Top Partners for Imports).

Shifting Internal Demand Across EU Member States

Within the EU, France is the clear leader, acting as both the largest importer and exporter. Its dominance intensified over the decade.

(Source: Top EU Reporters)

France's import growth is particularly notable, suggesting it is the primary hub within the EU for absorbing the increased value from non-EU sources. In contrast, Italy's export value slightly contracted despite being a major player.

Price Shocks, Volatility, and the "Pandemic Pivot"

The period was not one of linear growth but was punctuated by significant price shocks and underlying volatility, which help explain the dramatic value increases.

High Volatility in Smaller Markets

While the main partners (U.S., Switzerland) showed relatively low volatility, several smaller trading relationships were highly unstable, characterized by high coefficients of variation (CV). This is evident in EU imports from Hong Kong (CV: 0.73), Canada (CV: 0.68), and exports to Russia (CV: 0.79). Such volatility indicates that flows with these partners are subject to large, unpredictable shifts year-on-year (Volatility Metrics).

The 2020-2021 "Pandemic Pivot" in Prices

The most dramatic shocks occurred around the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Analysis detects a major price shock in EU imports from the United States in 2020, where prices shifted abnormally by 100.8%. This was followed by another significant price shock in EU exports to the United Kingdom in 2021, with an abnormal price shift of 260.6% (Top Shock Events).

These shocks likely reflect the impact of the pandemic on the global art market: disruption in physical auctions and fairs may have been offset by a surge in high-value private sales and digital transactions, concentrating trade in fewer, more expensive pieces and driving up reported unit values. The subsequent normalization has been uneven, contributing to the permanently higher price levels observed by 2025.

Conclusion

The EU market for paintings and drawings (CN 9701) from 2015 to 2025 was defined by a structural transformation toward higher-value imports, which eroded the bloc's traditional trade surplus. This was fueled by explosive price increases, particularly in imports from the United States and the United Kingdom. The trade is highly concentrated, with France acting as the central node within the EU, and the U.S./UK axis dominating external flows. The period also revealed the market's sensitivity to global shocks, with the COVID-19 pandemic acting as a catalyst for extreme price volatility that reshaped trade values. Moving forward, the key question is whether the high-price environment and the EU's near-balanced trade position will persist or if a reversion to historical patterns of surplus will occur.