Market evolution: Antiques over 100 years (CN 9706) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in antiques of more than 100 years old (Combined Nomenclature code 9706) over the period 2015–2025. The category covers two sub-segments: items over 250 years old (970610) and items between 100 and 250 years old (970690). Over the decade, the EU has maintained a structurally positive trade balance in this product class, with exports consistently exceeding imports. However, beneath this headline stability, the period has been marked by significant shifts in partner geography, unit-price dynamics, and trade concentration — driven in large part by Brexit, geopolitical sanctions, and pandemic-era disruptions. The analysis draws on annual trade data at the EU aggregate level and disaggregated by partner country and Member State.

For the full interactive data, see the General Overview.

1. Rising Volumes but Declining Unit Prices: A Decade of Quantitative Growth

1.1 EU exports and imports both expanded in value, but volumes grew far faster

Between the first and last years of the data window, EU extra-EU exports of antiques rose from €337 million to €428 million (+27.0%), while imports climbed from €163 million to €219 million (+34.2%). The EU's trade surplus widened from €174 million to €209 million (+20.3%). These headline figures, however, mask a more striking dynamic on the volume side: export quantities surged from 1,980 tonnes to 3,418 tonnes (+72.6%), and import quantities grew from 496 tonnes to 822 tonnes (+65.6%).

1.2 The volume-price divergence points to a shift in the product mix

The simultaneous growth in traded volumes and decline in unit prices indicates a structural shift in the composition of traded antiques. Over the period, average export prices fell by 26.6% (from €170,017/t to €124,872/t), and import prices declined by 18.2% (from €325,387/t to €266,176/t). This suggests that a growing share of trade is accounted for by heavier, lower-value-per-kilogramme items — consistent with the Product Segment Breakdown, which shows the 970690 sub-segment (100–250 years old) traded in far larger tonnages than the 970610 sub-segment (over 250 years), but at vastly lower unit prices.

1.3 The 2020 pandemic trough was short-lived

Both import and export values hit their minimums during the data window at levels well below the 2015 starting point — imports at €83.0 million and exports at €189.4 million — reflecting the severe disruption to international art and antiques markets caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and associated auction-house closures, travel restrictions, and fair cancellations. The recovery was swift: by 2022, both flows had surpassed their pre-pandemic levels.

2. Geopolitical Realignment of Trade Partners

2.1 The United Kingdom emerged as the EU's dominant counterpart — almost certainly a Brexit effect

The single most dramatic partner-country shift over the decade was the rise of the United Kingdom. EU exports to the UK surged from €12.9 million in 2015 to €133.0 million in 2025 (+930.7%), making the UK the second-largest export destination after the United States. Similarly, EU imports from the UK jumped from €14.7 million to €83.2 million (+468.0%), turning it into the top import source by value.

This near-complete reclassification is a textbook Brexit artefact: prior to the UK's departure from the EU Single Market and Customs Union on 1 January 2021, trade with the UK was intra-EU and therefore excluded from extra-EU statistics. Post-Brexit, it appears in the data as extra-EU trade, producing the appearance of explosive growth. The top partners view confirms the UK's emergence from 2021 onwards.

2.2 Russia collapsed under sanctions, while China's role diminished

EU exports to the Russian Federation fell from €9.0 million to essentially zero (€3,544) over the period — a decline of 100%. The collapse accelerated sharply after 2022, consistent with EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The supply shock data confirms the abrupt nature of this disruption.

Exports to China followed a strikingly different trajectory: they peaked at €24.0 million in the mid-period before declining to €3.3 million in 2025 (−86.1%). This decline likely reflects a combination of Chinese import restrictions on cultural property, the broader cooling of EU-China economic relations, and the reallocation of EU exporters' attention toward the now-accessible UK market.

2.3 Trade concentration increased, signalling a narrowing partner base

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration rose from 2,745 to 3,424 (+24.8%), while the export HHI increased from 2,071 to 2,458 (+18.7%). Both values indicate moderate-to-high concentration, and the upward trend reflects the growing dominance of a small number of partners — principally the US and UK — at the expense of a more diversified partner base. The concentration view provides further detail.

2.4 France consolidated its position as the EU's leading exporter

Among EU Member States, France is by far the largest exporter of antiques, growing from €126.5 million (2015) to €249.6 million (2025), accounting for well over half of all EU extra-EU exports. The Netherlands showed the fastest growth in proportional terms (+276.1%), rising from €6.3 million to €23.7 million. By contrast, Austria's export share contracted sharply (from €46.7 million to €18.8 million, −59.7%), and Germany's remained broadly flat. The reporters view shows these national differences.

On the import side, France also leads (€84.9 million in 2025), followed by Belgium, Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands. Greece's imports showed extreme volatility, rising from negligible levels to €18.2 million at their peak before settling at €3.4 million — a pattern likely driven by a small number of high-value transactions.

3. Segment Structure and Price Volatility

3.1 The two sub-segments occupy fundamentally different market tiers

The product segment breakdown reveals a stark two-tier market. Items over 250 years old (970610) trade at unit prices roughly ten to twenty times higher than items between 100 and 250 years old (970690):

The 970690 segment dominates by weight — accounting for over 90% of traded tonnage in both directions — while the 970610 segment commands a disproportionate share of value due to its extremely high unit prices. Notably, export unit prices for the >250-year segment more than doubled between 2022 and 2025 (from €1.02 million/t to €2.18 million/t), even as volumes declined, suggesting that the EU is increasingly exporting only the most exceptional pieces in this category. Conversely, import unit prices for the same segment fell (from €1.76 million/t to €1.06 million/t), implying either a shift in the quality mix of incoming antiques or changing valuation practices.

3.2 A small number of high-value shock events shaped the annual picture

The supply shock analysis identified three major price anomalies:

The UK export price shock in 2018 and the Switzerland export price shock in 2022 are particularly significant given their large value shares. These events are consistent with individual high-value transactions — a hallmark of the antiques market, where a single museum-quality piece can move the aggregate statistics for an entire bilateral flow. The high coefficient of variation (CV) observed for EU-UK trade (1.08 for exports, 0.94 for imports) and for Türkiye (1.33 for exports) confirms the episodic, lumpy nature of these flows, in contrast to the more stable US trade (CV of 0.24 for exports). The volatility view provides the full volatility profile.

3.3 Specialisation is concentrated in a handful of Member States

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that Luxembourg, Austria, Spain, Denmark, and the Netherlands display the highest revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) in antiques exports, while Czechia, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, and Ireland are the least specialised. This pattern is consistent with the geography of Europe's established art-market infrastructure — auction houses, specialist dealers, and fairs — which is concentrated in Western Europe and Scandinavia, while Central and Eastern European economies have negligible antiques export profiles.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's external trade in antiques (CN 9706) expanded in both directions, with the trade surplus remaining robust at over €200 million. However, the headline growth conceals important structural shifts. The most consequential of these is the post-Brexit reclassification of UK trade, which has dramatically reshaped the partner landscape and increased concentration. Geopolitical events — notably sanctions on Russia and declining EU-China art trade — further narrowed the partner base. Meanwhile, the persistent decline in aggregate unit prices, driven by the growing weight of the 970690 sub-segment, is offset by rising per-unit values for the rarest >250-year-old pieces, reflecting a market that is increasingly bifurcated between high-volume, lower-value transactions and exceptional, one-off sales. The inherent volatility of this market — where a single masterpiece can move aggregate statistics — remains a defining feature, making year-on-year comparisons particularly sensitive to the timing of major transactions.